Crimson Settles Passer Question

We all have to make tough choices sometimes. This college or that one. Finance or consulting. Homework or television. Soup or salad.

But at the end of the day, we have to make a decision. What’s it going to be once and for all—chicken Caesar or tomato bisque?

That’s where Harvard finds itself. Having choices is better than not having them, though it certainly complicates things.

The Crimson doesn’t just have two talented quarterbacks—it probably has the best and the second-best passers in the Ivy League. And to be honest, I’m not sure which is which.

Junior Colton Chapple started four times for Harvard, but his two most recent games are the ones worth mentioning. In those contests against Cornell and Bucknell, he threw a total of nine touchdowns, the best two-game performance in team history.

Like most rational Harvard fans, I assumed that the man responsible for 63 points in just about six quarters would start the game against Princeton. And of course, I was wrong.

Instead, senior Collier Winters got the start, and he one-upped his teammate with six touchdowns, five in the air and one on a scramble. In the post-game press conference, Crimson coach Tim Murphy said that Winters was the starter for the rest of the year, and he said it without any reservation.

Should we believe Murphy? I’m not sure. After a season of unsuccessfully trying to predict his next move, I’m thinking about going with tarot cards, though I’m open to basically any kind of divination at this point.

We’ll assume for the sake of argument that Winters is starting tomorrow’s night game against Dartmouth. But I wouldn’t bet the rent on that one.

Whichever quarterback plays will face a tough but inconsistent Dartmouth defense on Saturday night. The 6 p.m. start marks the first time in program history that the Crimson has hosted two night games in the same season.

This probably won’t be the best game of the week, even if the Big Green is much better than its lackluster record indicates. That distinction belongs to the Penn-Brown matchup.

After a fourth-quarter scoring barrage against Yale gave Penn yet another comeback win last Saturday, the Quakers face a tough opponent for the second week in a row.

Brown has an outside shot at the league title, and the team is certainly talented and capable of taking down the preseason favorites. It will be Penn’s biggest test before it comes to Cambridge in two weeks.

YALE (3-3, 2-1 Ivy) at COLUMBIA (0-6, 0-3)

For seven of its last eight quarters of football against Ivy League opponents, Yale has looked really impressive.

As it so happens, one bad quarter was one too many. Against Penn, the Bulldogs squandered a 10-point lead in the fourth and then gave up a bunch more for good measure, losing to the Quakers, 37-25.

The loss puts a big dent in Yale’s Ivy League title hopes. But by no means is the team out yet—it just needs to win every game for the rest of the year and count on some losses from Penn and Harvard. And that can certainly happen.

Though the Bulldogs need to win every game they play, that does not mean they need to worry about every one of them. Against Columbia, there’s no reason Yale should work up an elevated blood pressure.

The Lions have struggled all season, losing in a convincing shutout to a Dartmouth team that has had issues of its own.

Death and taxes may be the only certainties in this world, but another sloppy Columbia performance isn’t far off.

Prediction: Yale 30, Columbia 13

PENN (4-2, 3-0 Ivy) at BROWN (5-1, 2-1)

I think Harvard is really lucky that it played and beat Brown so early in the season. The more I watch Bears football, the more impressed I am.

Yes, Brown’s last two wins have come against Princeton and Cornell, but that doesn’t detract from how well the team is playing. The Bears are clearly talented, and a win over Holy Cross proves that. Kyle Newhall-Caballero is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he can be a threat on any given week.

At this point in the season, no one is surprised to see Penn sitting on a 3-0 Ivy record. What is so shocking about these three wins for the preseason favorites is how it got them.

It doesn’t seem to matter who the Quakers are playing. In all three league games, Penn has been just good enough.

It started with a last-second, come-from-behind win at Dartmouth. It continued against lowly Columbia, when the Quakers needed a last-minute touchdown to avoid overtime with the winless Lions.

And last week against Yale at home, it happened again. Penn was down by 10 going into the fourth before an explosive quarter opened up the game. The Quakers won, 37-25, but the game was much closer than the score indicated.

Despite its league record, Penn is a weakened team, and it has fallen well outside the FCS Top 25. You could say that the Quakers have gotten lucky with their close wins, but when you’re that lucky, you’re probably just good.

But you can’t keep counting on wins like the ones Penn has had. It will eventually catch up to you.

Prediction: Brown 28, Penn 26

CORNELL (2-4, 0-3 Ivy) at PRINCETON (1-5, 1-2)

Princeton is by no means the best team in the Ivies, but Harvard witnessed last week that the team can still be explosive. The Tigers rallied from a 26-point deficit to pull within three.

Harvard pulled away in the end, but it became clear that, at any given moment, Princeton might be able to turn its offense—and its season—around.

Cornell’s offense has a major upside as well. If Winters and Chapple aren’t the one-two in the Ivy League quarterback rankings, it’s probably because of Big Red sophomore Jeff Mathews. And with two years left, he’s only going to get better.

To some extent, I think Princeton’s third quarter last week was a fluke. The team certainly has offensive firepower, but not that much. Though Cornell hasn’t picked up a win in the Ancient Eight yet, almost all of its games have been tight. Advantage Cornell in the matchup of off-and-on offenses.

Prediction: Cornell 31, Princeton 21

DARTMOUTH (2-4, 1-2 Ivy) at HARVARD (5-1, 3-0)

As good as its offense has been all year, the Crimson’s defense has been a little bit like an old car—it always seems to get you there, but the ride is sometimes a little shaky.

Granted, seniors Josue Ortiz and Matt Hanson missed part of the game last week, which certainly hurt. But the 30 points that Princeton put up in under 15 minutes still demonstrates some vulnerability.

Here’s a week-by-week rundown of the number of points the Crimson has surrendered this year, starting from the first game: 30, 7, 3, 31, 3, 39.

So which defense will show up in tomorrow night’s game? It remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, Dartmouth has consistency issues of its own. Yale shut out the Big Green earlier this year, but Dartmouth scored 37 in its shakedown of Columbia.

If Harvard’s quarterbacks keep playing like they’ve been doing all year, it won’t matter which Big Green team takes the field.

Prediction: Harvard 38, Dartmouth 24

RECORD LAST WEEK: 4-0 (To date: 16-6)

—Staff writer E. Benjamin Samuels can be reached at samuels@college.harvard.edu.