Oscars 2020 Preview

On Feb. 9, the Academy Awards will announce its 2020 list of winners. As far as nominations go, “Joker” leads the pack with 11, followed closely by “1917,” “The Irishman,” and “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood” with 10 apiece. “Marriage Story,” “Little Women” and “Parasite” all received six nominations. Here is a complete analysis of the 17 categories eligible for live action feature films (see a breakdown of Best Picture odds here). Who will win? Who should win?

Best Director
Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”), Sam Mendes (“1917”), Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”), and Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time … In Hollywood”) were all shoo-in nominees after being recognized at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, the British Academy (BAFTAs), and the Directors Guild of America (DGA). But the door was open for a fifth film. Enter Todd Phillips, whose “Joker” was the second worst reviewed film (by aggregators) to receive a Best Director nomination in the 21st century. It’s a baffling pick to say the least, considering 2019 offered a plethora of incredible options.

But regardless of who was nominated, Best Director is shaping up to be an inevitable win for Sam Mendes for his real-time, one-take World War I phenom “1917.” Mendes won the DGA, BAFTA, and the Golden Globe Award for Best Director (also sharing the Critics Choice Award with Bong Joon-ho). The DGA win in itself makes Mendes a frontrunner: The DGA has predicted the Academy Award winner correctly 17 of the last 20 times, with exceptions including Steven Soderbergh winning the Oscar in 2000 over Ang Lee and Roman Polanski winning in 2002 over Rob Marshall. The last time someone lost Best Director at the Academy Awards after winning the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, DGAs, and BAFTAs was Ben Affleck for “Argo” (2011), when Affleck was snubbed from an Academy Award nomination. One can argue that Bong Joon-ho deserves the award for helming the original satire-thriller masterpiece “Parasite,” or Martin Scorsese for his elegiac, introspective “The Irishman,” but Best Director is Sam Mendes’ to lose.

Should win: Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”) or Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”)
Will win: Sam Mendes (“1917”)

Best Actor
This awards season started as a conversation between two favorites: Adam Driver’s subtlety in “Marriage Story” and Joaquin Phoenix’s showy physicality in “Joker.” But Phoenix swept the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards (the largest voting branch of the Academy), and the BAFTAs. The last time an actor lost the Academy Award after clearing house like that was Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”), who lost to Denzel Washington (“Training Day”) at the 2002 Oscars. Crowe lost an insurmountable lead in 2002 due to special circumstances — circumstances that won’t perturb Phoenix (who has yet to win an Academy Award over the course of four nominations).

Should win: Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”)
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”)

Best Actress
Pundits have penciled in Best Actress as Renée Zellweger’s (“Judy”) award since her film’s premiere at the Telluride Film Festival. There is simply too much narrative to avoid Zellweger; “Judy” marks her prestige drama comeback as the actress receives her first Academy Award nomination after being nominated back-to-back-to-back from 2002 to 2004. It will also give the Academy an opportunity to honor Hollywood legend Judy Garland, whom Zellweger plays, since Garland herself never won an Oscar. Like Phoenix, Zellweger won at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, SAGs, and BAFTAs, so it would be a surprise if the Oscar went to anyone else. But if there is an upset, the second place on most ballots should be Scarlett Johansson for “Marriage Story.”

Should win: Renée Zellweger (“Judy”)
Will win: Renée Zellweger (“Judy”)

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”) finally scored a delayed nomination after being snubbed for “Captain Phillips,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “Sully,” and “The Post.” In “The Irishman,” Joe Pesci returned from retirement with arguably the best role of his career as the quietly powerful mob boss Russell Bufalino, and Al Pacino redeemed his late career with an electric performance as Jimmy Hoffa. But look for Brad Pitt to steal the award for a charismatic (arguably leading) role as Cliff Booth in “Once Upon A Time … In Hollywood.” All other nominees (including esteemed British thespian Anthony Hopkins) have received Oscars before, but Pitt hasn't, and the Academy often hands out Supporting Actor wins like lifetime achievement awards. Pitt also swept awards season, and he is in a firm position to take home his first acting Oscar on Sunday.

Should win: Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”)
Will win: Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time … In Hollywood”)

Best Supporting Actress
This is Laura Dern’s award to lose. Her performance in “Marriage Story” already won at the BAFTAs, SAGs, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes. This is the first year since the first Critics Choice Awards in 1995 where the four major awards bodies leading up to the Academy Awards have been unanimous in their acting picks. However, Laura Dern is also the most likely to be upset, because she’s nominated in the same category as Scarlett Johansson for “Jojo Rabbit” in a year where Johansson is double nominated (a feat that has only happened 12 times in Academy Award history). It wouldn’t be a total shock to see Johansson get some love in the Supporting Actress category, but it would be a historic upset.
Should win: Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”)
Will win: Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Tasked with a script that cuts between five decades and balances a dozen characters, Steven Zaillian’s "The Irishman" screenplay achieves the impossible: It maintains thematic consistency within a three-and-a-half hour mob epic. However, after snubbing Greta Gerwig for a directing nomination, there is momentum for the Academy to recognize her in any category it can, even though her screenplay wasn't nominated at the Golden Globes. But even Gerwig's newfound drive was short-lived, and her screenplay for "Little Women" only won at Critics Choice. "Jojo Rabbit'' has surged in the past week with back-to-back wins at the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and BAFTA. The winner at the WGAs for Best Adapted Screenplay has gone on to win the Oscar 13 of the last 20 times.

Should win: Steven Zaillian (“The Irishman”)
Will win: Taika Waititi (“Jojo Rabbit”)

Best Original Screenplay
The intricacies of Noah Baumbach’s "Marriage Story" screenplay help wield extremely personable characters. Its success lies in its thought-out, well developed details, which flesh out the tiniest personality traits into believable character tropes. Unfortunately, "Marriage Story" has so far been overlooked in awards consideration, and it hasn't won a single major screenplay award. Instead, this year's awards season produced two favorites: Quentin Tarantino for "Once Upon a Time … In Hollywood," which won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award, and Bong Joon-ho for "Parasite," which won at the WGAs and the BAFTAs. There is an overlap in the voting bodies of both the WGA and BAFTA with the Academy, but no overlap with the Globes or Critics Choice. There's also a caveat: “Parasite” won the WGA, but “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” was not eligible. Still, the winner at the WGAs for Best Original Screenplay went on to win the Oscar 14 of the last 20 times, and there is so much upward momentum for "Parasite" (which also won the SAG Best Ensemble award and shared Best Director at the Critics Choice) that it might well edge out "Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood" in an unpredictable race.

Should win: Noah Baumbach (“Marriage Story”)
Will win: Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”)

Best International Feature Film
"Parasite" is going to win this award: It's the biggest lock of the night.

Should win: “Parasite”
Will win: “Parasite”

Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins winning Best Cinematography for "1917" is almost as sure a lock as "Parasite" winning Best International Film. Deakins exploded into a runaway lead, and deservingly so. From impeccably controlled lighting over unnaturally long takes to innovative camera rigs that maximize intricate set designs, his work in “1917” pushes the limits of what's possible in the cinematic medium.

Should win: Roger Deakins (“1917”)
Will win: Roger Deakins (“1917”)

Best Film Editing
Editing is an ingrained part of the storytelling in “The Irishman,” which is complete with voiceovers, exaggerated whips, and freeze frames which illustrate three-time Academy Award winner Thelma Schoonmaker’s style within her long standing collaboration with Scorsese. However, the American Cinema Editors (ACE) awards matched 15 of the last 20 Best Film Editing Oscar winners, and this year they selected “Jojo Rabbit” for comedy and “Parasite” for Drama. Editing is looking more and more like a prize for “Parasite,” which is perfectly paced and features pristinely timed montages. “Ford v Ferrari” also has some upset potential after winning at the BAFTAs.

Should Win: Thelma Schoonmaker (“The Irishman”)
Will Win: Yang Jin-mo (“Parasite”)

Best Original Score
Randy Newman’s deeply melodic tones sing of heartbreak and hum sweetly in your head long after "Marriage Story" concludes. “Marriage Story” soars largely due to this series of lullabies laced with nostalgic familiarity that made audiences fall head first for Baumbach’s witty characters. In stark contrast, Thomas Newman’s rhythmic percussion controls the tempo of war epic “1917": It helps breathe the relentless war experience to life on the big screen. While both scores excel in attaining their respective goals, the Academy is likely to lean towards the technically superb “1917,” even though most awards bodies have awarded Hildur Guðnadóttir's “Joker.” This is because Thomas Newman has been nominated 15 times with no wins, and the Academy has a habit of balancing out winners.

Should win: Randy Newman (“Marriage Story”) or Thomas Newman (“1917”)
Will win: Thomas Newman (“1917”)

Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing
Sound editing does not mean sound mixing. It just so happens that the Academy often treats them as the same. Sound editing is the manipulation of individual sounds, while sound mixing is how those sounds are interwoven. Both categories are down to two frontrunners: "Ford v Ferrari" and "1917." Both are technical masterpieces, but the Academy frequently awards the film that will end up with more wins, and in this case, that means "1917" (which recently won the award at the BAFTAs).

Should win: “Ford v Ferrari” or "1917"
Will win: “1917”

Best Production Design
Production Design is down to three frontrunners: "Once Upon a Time … In Hollywood," which recreates 1960s tinseltown to nostalgic perfection, "1917," which relies on meticulous planning to create sets measured to the actors' very steps to preserve the one-take illusion, and "Parasite," which built everything from the ground up, including the clever design of the two-levelled house. But "Parasite" has an edge here; the house is almost a character in the film, as it plays such an integral part of the plot. It also won the Art Directors Guild (ADG) award for Production Design for a Contemporary Feature Film, a branch that overlaps with the Academy. But "Once Upon a Time … In Hollywood" won at the ADGs for Production Design for a Period Film, and no one apprecaiates Hollywood production design more than Hollywood professionals.

Should win: “1917”
Will win: “Parasite” or "Once Upon a Time … In Hollywood"

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
This award has "Bombshell" written all over it after it swept at the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards (which overlaps with Academy voters) with three wins in three nominations. It's the only award that "Bombshell" is in serious contention for, and the use of makeup and prosthetics to transform Charlize Theron into Megyn Kelly alone probably deserves an Oscar.

Should win: “Bombshell”
Will win: “Bombshell”

Best Visual Effects
It's incredible to think this might be the only category that Martin Scorsese's mob epic will walk away with at the end of the awards ceremony. The de-aging technology from Industrial Light and Magic was truly revolutionary work, and the Academy frequently awards prestige films in this category over blockbusters. De-aging was a poignant part of the story in "The Irishman" in a way that it simply wasn't for other nominees. It also won two awards in two nominations at the Visual Effects Society Awards.

Should win: “The Irishman”
Will win: “The Irishman”

Best Costume Design
While the Costume Designers Guild chose to select "Jojo Rabbit," it's also important to realize that they somehow managed to snub "Little Women" for a nomination. It's possible that Gerwig's film was released too late for voters, but with "Little Women" nominated in the Academy and picking up a win at the BAFTAs, it's on a good pace to win at the Oscars too.

Should win: “Little Women”
Will win: “Little Women”

—Staff writer Lanz Aaron G. Tan can be reached at lanzaaron.tan@thecrimson.com and on Twitter @LanzAaronGTan1.