Oscars 2020: What Will Win Best Picture?

This year, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences nominated nine films for Best Picture in one of the most amazing years in film in recent memory. Here is a close analysis of each nominee’s chances, why they should win, and why they won’t, with picks arranged in increasing likelihood to win.

“Ford v Ferrari” dir. James Mangold
This film is exactly what it should be: A well-shot, perfectly paced racing film. Mangold’s high-octane spectacle is beautifully edited eye candy, boosted by flashy cinematography from Phedon Papmichael that flaunts dizzying maneuvers, a grounded camera angle, and stunning wides. However, Mangold’s latest film has received no nominations beyond the technical categories, with no acting, writing, or directing nominations. “Ford v Ferrari” is a slick action film but, by all accounts, won’t be recognized beyond a well-deserved nomination.

“Little Women” dir. Greta Gerwig
“Little Women” hits its stride with Gerwig’s screenplay, which cleverly interweaves two time periods and brandishes pristinely planned overlapping dialogue. However, Gerwig's film has received little palpable support outside its screenplay, and even that support has been sparse; it won for Critics Choice, but wasn’t nominated at the Golden Globes and didn’t win at the BAFTAs or WGAs. It wasn't nominated for Best Editing (only 10 films since 1934 have won Best Picture without an Editing nomination) or Cinematography and Production Design (two technical nominations one would expect a period piece to receive). If the Academy truly wanted to honor “Little Women,” it would have nominated Greta Gerwig for Best Director.

“Marriage Story” dir. Noah Baumbach
“Marriage Story” was an early leading contender for Best Picture, but has since lost a lot of steam. It wasn’t nominated for Best Editing or Best Director, two traditional marks of a Best Picture winner. It hasn’t scored a single Best Original Screenplay win from the major awards bodies (Globes, Critics Choice, Guilds, and British Academy Awards (BAFTAs)), a category it should have had locked down. And the penultimate major awards show, the BAFTAs, left “Marriage Story” out of the Best Picture race entirely.

“Joker” dir. Todd Phillips
The problems with “Joker” don’t lie with its portrayals of violence, or the fact that it’s a superhero movie, but instead with its lazy writing that consistently undermines the intelligence of its audience. “Joker” is the second worst film in the 21st century to ever be nominated for “Best Director” and such a divide is unlikely to see it win “Best Picture.” To see “Joker” come this far at all is baffling, but Phillips' film has been nominated for Best Picture at The Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Producers Guild of America Awards (PGAs), and BAFTAs. Moreover, it has garnered the most Academy Awards nominations of the year at 11, and it’s not impossible that the passion Academy voters have for Joaquin Phoenix’s performance (the clear frontrunner for Best Actor) could bleed over into a Best Picture win.

“Jojo Rabbit” dir. Taika Waititi
“Jojo Rabbit” is this year’s “Green Book.” Not to say that “Jojo Rabbit” is the same film — it’s more daring, more comedic, and more earnest. But the two are eerily similar in terms of accolades. Both films won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, and both were nominated for Best Director at the Director's Guild of America (DGA) Awards, only to be snubbed by the Academy. Both were also nominated for Best Screenplay and the much-needed editing nomination. “Jojo Rabbit” is one of the only four films to be nominated for the highest award at all the guilds (Writers, Producers, Actors and Directors), joining “Parasite,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” and “The Irishman.” A shocker win for "Jojo Rabbit" is not completely out of the picture, especially given its recent resurgence in the Adapted Screenplay category (winning back to back at the Writers Guild and BAFTAs).

“The Irishman” dir. Martin Scorsese
“The Irishman” is a heartbreaking reflection; a rumination on the regrets and decisions we make in life, the legacy we leave behind, and sin. It’s a religious meditation and commentary on mortality as much as it is a gangster epic, and as such it’s in constant conversation with Scorsese’s legendary filmography. “The Irishman” should win Best Picture, but it faces a major setback: It’s on Netflix. Instead of being forced to sit through other nominees as intended in theaters, Academy members (who are working professionals) have the option to watch the film in snippets on a laptop. Netflix is also a major threat to theaters and Hollywood studios. Unsurprisingly, The Academy bent over backwards to avoid giving the award to Alfonso Cuaron’s masterpiece “Roma” (a Netflix film) last year by instead awarding Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book.” Still, “The Irishman” has received nominations for the top prize at all four guilds, has been in the Best Picture conversation at all the awards bodies, and is up for 10 nominations at the Oscars (including Best Editing and Best Director). An upset is still possible.

“Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood” dir. Quentin Tarantino
Could this be the year two-time Academy Award winner Quentin Tarantino bags his first Best Picture win? His love letter to 1960s tinseltown is shot on gorgeous 35mm film, showcases hilarious tour-de-force performances from its leads Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt, and wins over audiences with its final 45 minutes of classic Tarantino suspense and cathartic violence. But that begs the question: What happened to the first two hours of the movie? Where is the plot? "Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood" offers a lot of fun, but perhaps isn’t as substantive as the other films nominated in this category. Tarantino's film won Best Picture at the Golden Globes (Musical or Comedy) and at the Critics Choice Awards. It’s one of the four films nominated at all the guilds, and boasts 10 Academy Award nominations. No one loves Hollywood more than Hollywood, so it would be far from surprising to see Tarantino’s 9th and penultimate film take home the big prize.

“Parasite” dir. Bong Joon-ho
Bong Joon-ho’s “Parasite” is revolutionary: Its groundbreaking premise as a satire-thriller makes it one of the most original films produced in years. It has secured the coveted editing nomination, is one of the four aforementioned films to be recognized for the top prize at all four guilds, and has been nominated for Best Picture at all major awards bodies. “Parasite” even won Best Acting Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild, the largest voting branch of the Academy, despite receiving no individual nominations. Its back to back upsets for Best Original Screenplay over “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” at the WGAs and the BAFTAs is a testament to the film community's love and respect for Bong Joon-ho’s film. However, there is simply little historical precedent for “Parasite” taking Best Picture: No foreign language film has ever won Best Picture, even though “Roma” came dangerously close last year. It also has no acting nominations, and no film has won “Best Picture” without an acting nomination since 2008’s “Slumdog Millionaire.” But all told, “Parasite” is the most likely film to overthrow frontrunner “1917.”

“1917” dir. Sam Mendes
Sam Mendes’ real time, one-take World War I epic stretches the limits of what’s possible with cinema. With an unnerving commitment to natural lighting, meticulous production design, and impossible camera rigs, “1917” uses masterful cinematography from Roger Deakins and detailed sound design to create a visceral experience unlike any film before. “1917” won the Golden Globe (for Best Motion Picture — Drama), the PGA Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture, and the BAFTA for Best Film, which is enough to place it as a clear frontrunner for now. As technically masterful as it is, “1917” is far from the most emotional picture of the year, and the Academy frequently rewards sentimentality (as evidenced by “Green Book” winning last year). “1917” would also be only the second in the last 40 years to win without an editing nomination, but the last film to do so, “Birdman” (2014), was also a one-take movie. The biggest obstacle for “1917” is probably support from actors; like “Parasite,” Mendes’ film didn't receive an acting nomination from the Academy. However, the SAGs, which didn’t nominate “1917” in any category, gave its biggest prize to “Parasite.” “1917” looks like the likely winner, but the door is certainly open for an upset.

—Staff writer Lanz Aaron G. Tan can be reached at lanzaaron.tan@thecrimson.com and on Twitter @LanzAaronGTan1.