The Oscars 2016: Picks and Predictions

BEST PICTURE

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Who should win: “Room”

"Room" is a heartbreaking, beautifully crafted film carried by two stellar performances from Brie Larsen and Jacob Tremblay. For a low-budget adaptation of a novel featuring largely unknown actors, with a scope as unassuming as its title would suggest (the pervasive sense of claustrophobia is as integral to "Room" as the boundless natural landscape is to the leading contender for Best Picture, "The Revenant"), it did much better than could have ever been expected. Unfortunately, it’s probably too quiet a film to win the Academy’s self-fulfilling box-office imprimatur.

Who will win: “The Revenant”

Director Alejandro G. Iñárritu is on a roll: He won Best Director and Best Picture for "Birdman" last year, and he's likely to do it again with his newest film, a period piece starring Leonardo DiCaprio, the Canadian/Argentinian wilderness, a whole lot of gruesomeness, and a bear.

DIRECTING

Adam McKay, The Big Short

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Who should win: “Spotlight”

Director Tom McCarthy created a decidedly unglamorous newsroom drama featuring spectacular ensemble acting. Serious actors and difficult subject matter are arguably even more difficult to wrangle with than a simulated bear.

Who will win: “The Revenant”

Iñárritu will most likely go two for two, winning both Best Director and Best Picture again this year for "The Revenant," which required filming in extraordinarily difficult conditions.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Who should win among the nominees: Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs"

On the whole, this category was weak this year, but Michael Fassbender stands out. Though an unlikely choice to play the American icon, he was able to deliver a nuanced performance.

Who should really win: Jason Tremblay, "Room"

Nine-year-old Tremblay delivered a mature and poignant performance in a very challenging role. Unlike all of the actual nominees, he did not have to contend with the type of showy "challenge" that has characterized Oscar-winning leading roles in recent years (e.g., "portraying an icon," "acting in space," "gender identity crisis," "fighting a bear/fighting frozen rivers/eating liver/eating bone marrow/crawling inside horse carcasses/being eaten by maggots"). His flawless performance rested on his own talent, as well as the considerable skill of director Lenny Abrahamson, who had the courage and/or wisdom to keep the kid on screen for the entire film. Latest word is that Abrahamson is lobbying for a “special Oscar” for Tremblay, who already won the Critics’ Choice Best Young Actor Award.

Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant"

It's finally happening—after a lifetime making large-budget films, DiCaprio will actually win an Academy Award. One wonders why it has taken so long and whether there might be a good reason for it. One is told to be quiet.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Who should win: Brie Larson, "Room"

Larson delivers a stunningly unaffected performance as a young woman imprisoned in a shed for seven years by a kidnapper who habitually rapes her, a young woman whose only solace is the five-year-old son her rapist fathered. Her son, kept out of sight in a tiny nook when her kidnapper returns each night, compels Larson’s character to imagine and narrate an alternate version of reality, to attempt to mitigate the existential terrors of their total vulnerability and dependence, and to construct and enact daily routines for surviving “life” within an 8 by 10 box. Relatively unknown before this release, Larson and co-star Jason Tremblay surpass what seems humanly possible in the difficult roles they take on with apparent ease, in contrast to the finely delivered but predictable performances of every other best actress and actor nominee this year.

Who will win: Brie Larson, "Room"

Although she is and has been in competition with such high-profile former Oscar winners as Cate Blanchett and Jennifer Lawrence, Larson has already taken home the SAG Award, BAFTA, and Golden Globe for her performance in "Room." She seems poised to add an Oscar to her collection.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Who should win: Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”

The British stage actor is perfection in his first major Hollywood film, playing a captured English-born Soviet spy facing judgment in the United States. In this understated role, the intelligence of each purposefully confined look the literally confined Rylance delivers goes far beyond or beneath the Cold War character part he plays. The brief “standing man” narrative Rylance performs (a gem equal to any in the Joel and Ethan Coen script anthology) deserves, were such possible, an Oscar of its own. It is the season for what may be the last (and certainly the best) incarnation of Rocky Balboa to be crowned, but there is not one false note in every glance and word with which a perfectly circumspect Rylance graces this overtly heartstrings-pulling period piece.

Who will win: Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”

Rocky returns.

Again.

To be sure, his portrayal of an older Rocky faced with the task of training his former rival's son in "Creed" is the performance of Sylvester Stallone's career. He rises to the challenge of the film's heavy dramatic material and manages to be equal parts deadpan, drop-dead funny and truly moving. His performance does not come close to Rylance's, but at the end of a career as one of Hollywood’s biggest and most reliable box office stars, who seems as unpretentious in life as he does on screen, Stallone is not only an “industry” but an individually liked favorite.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Who should win: Rooney Mara, “Carol”

While Cate Blanchett’s glamorous character got most of the press (her fur coat alone clocking more print space than many films this year), it is Rooney Mara who delivers the more surprisingly nuanced, enigmatic performance in the film. She is also in the wrong category: Her role is at least as hefty as Blanchett's, and she should be up for Best Actress, which she won for "Carol" at the Cannes Film Festival.

Who will win: Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”

The newly crowned Hollywood "Swedeheart" is another actress in a leading role incorrectly nominated for the "supporting" category. In "The Danish Girl," she plays the wife of one of the first transgender women, Lili Elbe (Eddie Redmayne)—but Vikander’s character, who believed and supported Elbe throughout her unprecedented transformation, was unfortunately more interesting than her performance.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Amy

Cartel Land

The Look of Silence

What Happened, Miss Simone?

Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

What should win: “The Look of Silence”

Combining visual artistry and lyricism unusual in a documentary with the horrifying story of the Indonesian genocide, "The Look of Silence" is a nonfiction work of art.

What will win: “Amy”

Coming off a win for Best Documentary at the BAFTAs, this telling of the singer's tragic life is poised to take the win on Sunday.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

The Big Short

Brooklyn

Carol

The Martian

Room

Who should win: “Room”

The performances in "Room" (including those of the supporting actors) could not have been flawless without a script to match. It is perfectly, almost impossibly honest from beginning to end.

Who will win: “The Big Short”

Though the film is likely to be shut out of the other awards it is nominated for, Adam McKay and Charles Randolph of “The Big Short” may well take home the Oscar for adapting Michael Lewis' book. The script features unusual direct addresses to the camera, explaining now household—but still incomprehensible—financial terms such as swaps and derivatives.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Bridge of Spies

Ex Machina

Inside Out

Spotlight

Straight Outta Compton

Who should win: “Bridge of Spies”

Two words: Coen Bros.

Who will win: “Spotlight”

Josh Singer (who wrote some of “The West Wing"—that's a tip-off if ever there was one) and director Tom McCarthy will likely win with this ensemble piece.