AROUND THE IVIES: A Potentially Interesting Weekend in Ivy Football

Cornell, Columbia, Brown, Dartmouth, and Yale. What do these teams all have in common?

They are all mathematically eliminated from contention for the Ivy League championship. It’s down to Harvard and the Killer P’s, Penn and Princeton.

I know it’s shocking, but Harvard is once again in prime position to claim the throne. A win against Penn would guarantee the Crimson four straight Ivy League titles.

But just how exceptional an achievement is four straight?

Well to be honest, I’m not sure a certain football co-writer could go four seconds without saying, “Ivy League football suuuuuucks.” I don’t hate the Player, I just hate the game. And I think it would be a minor miracle if my other co-writer failed to ask four consecutive questions at a press conference. Enter SamDan? More like Exit SamDan.

As you can see, four straight of anything is pretty impressive, but four straight championships would be especially remarkable.

That said, Harvard is certainly not guaranteed to clinch the league on Friday. As you’ll see, more on that later.

CORNELL AT COLUMBIA

Cornell and Columbia have recently been perennial bottom-feeders in the Ancient Eight. After a dominant 3-0 start to the season, the Big Red has dropped its last five contests. Meanwhile, the Lions sit at 2-6, having scored a combined 24 points in their two victories.

Suffice to say, it won’t be pretty.

With the NBA season having started up recently, I thought some basketball analogies were appropriate here.

Cornell and Columbia are seventh and eighth, respectively, in points scored in Ivy League games. Based on these less-than-stellar offenses, we might see more field goal attempts in this game than when Russell Westbrook tries to play one-on-five after deciding the rest of his team is a lost cause.

There may be more turnovers in this game than in a 76ers-Pelicans matchup. Just thinking about watching this hypothetical game is appalling. Boy, am I glad to be a Celtics fan. (Alright, maybe I shouldn’t be talking—the early 2000s were not a good time in Boston.)

One positive note: newspaper correspondents won’t have to suffer through bland, Gregg Popovich-style postgame interviews. Columbia coach Al Bagnoli was openly critical of his team after playing Harvard, and the Lions actually put up a good fight against a top-tier opponent.

When it’s all said and done, however, Big Red fans will be more red in the face than Brian Scalabrine when he returns to the bench after a few garbage-time minutes. Coming off a near win against Harvard, the Lions will grind out a close one at home.

Prediction: Columbia 13, Cornell 10

BROWN AT DARTMOUTH

As I’ve noted before, Rhode Island and New Hampshire are pretty much inconsequential. The southern half of the Granite State is basically just a suburb of Boston, and the northern part is an extension of Canada. Not much to see there.

Rhode Island is, likewise, just a suburb of Boston. Now that I think about it, Boston is pretty much synonymous with New England.

Just as these two states bordering Massachusetts do not immediately come to mind when you hear the phrase “New England,” their Ivy League football teams are also of little importance this year.

The Bears are who we thought they were, as they sit at a mediocre 2-3 record in league play. The Ivy League expert analysts (wait, that’s us) predicted Dartmouth to finish near the top of the standings in 2016, but the Big Green has instead come up little in conference games, going 1-4 so far.

Dartmouth picked up its first Ivy win last week against Cornell, and I predict the Big Green to keep up that momentum against Brown. Quarterback Jack Heneghan has impressed after being benched at the start of the Harvard game.

One bright spot for Bears fans is that they are better than at least one of their Ancient Eight rivals. Adding to the general list of Yale’s failures was a 27-22 defeat against Brown last week.

Prediction: Dartmouth 26, Brown 17

PRINCETON AT YALE

Yale will use this contest as a tuneup for the premier Ivy League showdown of the season, Harvard-Yale. The Bulldogs have a prime opportunity in the penultimate week to figure out how best to lose to the Crimson, and Princeton will gladly provide that chance.

Princeton, aside from its nail-biting loss to the Crimson, has dominated the Ivy League this year. The Tigers have scored 183 points in five league games and have only allowed 50. That’s a point differential of plus-133. To put that in perspective, Penn is in a distant second at plus-52.

Yale, on the other hand, has struggled yet again. I think I’ve already disparaged the Bulldogs enough, so I’ll just present some unbiased statistics.

In eight contests, the defense has allowed 294 points. For comparison, Princeton has allowed 140 in as many games.

The offense has been adequate with 179 total points, but it has not been enough to bail out the defense.

In addition, Yale has lost by margins of 55-13, 63-35, and 42-7. I think we’ve seen enough here.

Prediction: Princeton 48, Yale 9

HARVARD AT PENN

Finally, a compelling matchup.

Sure, Princeton’s game against Yale has playoff implications. But as I mentioned above, it’s not like the Bulldogs are going to come close to beating the Tigers. Harvard-Penn will go down as the most entertaining and captivating game of the 2016 Ivy League slate.

Most weeks, Around the Ivies readers can feel fairly certain they will read some witty commentary disparaging Harvard’s opponent and then see a prediction that calls for a double-digit Harvard victory.

However, this week is different. Harvard diehards surely will not enjoy reading this section. In fact, I’ll say it now: Penn will beat Harvard Friday night in Philadelphia.

While the Crimson is 5-0 in Ivy play and has only lost to Holy Cross this year, its wins have been slightly less convincing than in years past. In its last three victories, including an overtime thriller over Princeton, Harvard’s average margin of victory is only four points.

The result of the 2016 presidential election may not be the only transfer of power from Harvard to Penn we will see this year.

If Harvard loses this game, it would be tied with Penn for first place in the Ivy League, and there would most likely be a three-way tie after Yale’s inevitable drubbing at Princeton’s hands. The championship would be completely up for grabs in the final week.

I’ve heard rumblings that Nate Silver has Harvard at a 70 percent chance of winning the league. As we’ve seen, that’s far from guaranteed.

Prediction: Penn 31, Harvard 27

Staff writer Jack Stockless can be reached at jackstockless@college.harvard.edu.