Harvard Faculty Weigh In on Emerging Presidential Candidates

As a growing number of candidates jump into 2016’s presidential race, members of Harvard’s faculty say those who have declared face a number of party-specific challenges.

Many faculty members interviewed contrasted candidates in the crowded Republican field—who they say are concerned with distinguishing themselves from their competitors—with former U.S. Senator and First Lady Hillary Clinton, currently the only major Democratic candidate to have declared her intention to run. Faculty experts said Clinton is focused on protecting her reputation against media scrutiny.

Although the 2016 presidential election is more than a year away, several faculty members stressed that the early stages of a presidential election can serve as a critical time for candidates looking to secure their party’s respective nomination.

According to Richard Parker, a lecturer in public policy at the Kennedy School of Government, primary season starts far before the official voting primaries commence and consists of three informal primaries, a “funder or donor primary,” an “elite primary,” and a “media primary.”

“To successfully win the voting primary, one must win two of the three informal primaries,” Parker said.

While Clinton is largely viewed as the only major candidate so far in the Democratic race, the Republican field is “much more competitive,” said Theda R. Skocpol, a professor of Government and Sociology. Skocpol attributes the competitive race to the fragmented schools of ideology within the current Republican party.

“It’s hard to tell who’s going to emerge from the pack,” she said.

Likewise, Stephen D. Ansolabehere, a Government professor, said each Republican candidate has gained support from different constituencies within the party.

“Republicans view [Florida Senator Marco] Rubio and [former Florida Governor Jeb] Bush as embodying the vision for the future of the party, [Kentucky Senator] Rand Paul does really well among independents,” he said. “[Wisconsin Governor] Scott Walker is doing very well among young Republicans.”

A few faculty members said they believe that Jeb Bush could emerge from the crowded Republican field as the party’s nominee. Steve Jarding, a lecturer in public policy at the Kennedy School, noted Jeb Bush’s advantage because of the influence of the Bush family among potential Republican donors.

Despite the relative lack of competition for the Democratic bid, some members of the faculty cited challenges that Clinton could face during her presidential bid. Parker said that while Clinton’s prominence will aid her in what he labeled the "elite" and "donor" primaries, it could attract greater scrutiny from the media, as the press will be looking to “test” her political and personal past.

“She’s her own challenge,” Parker said of Clinton.

Other faculty members discussed Clinton’s departure in strategy from her previous presidential bid. Kennedy School lecturer Barbara L. Kellerman spoke of Clinton’s newly minted image as what Kellerman calls “Granny for President,” in which she portrays herself as a more “maternal, womanly figure.” Kellerman contrasted this with “the much more strident, competent, and competitive image that she presented the first time around.”

Jarding said he thinks the 2016 presidential election will be interesting to follow due to rising voter dissatisfaction as a result of rising income inequality.

“You could probably make the argument that there is more voter unrest today in America than there has been at any time since the Great Depression, with the possible exception of the Vietnam War,” he said.