Slouching Toward Tehran

Iran’s new President Hassan Rouhani is taking his nation in new directions. Dedicating himself to resolving the dispute with the United States over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, he has brought the two countries the closest to a rapprochement than they have been in decades. Yesterday that effort almost culminated in a handshake between Rouhani and President Obama, before Rouhani’s internal political situation put the kibosh on that plan.

While overtures from Iran should be welcomed, there is ample reason for wariness. Negotiations over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program have been marked by false starts and unexpected stalls. Rouhani’s snubbing of Obama yesterday at the General Assembly was reminiscent of a similar situation in 1999, when President Bill Clinton was denied an encounter with then-president of Iran Mohammad Khatami. Verbal commitments—wishing a happy new year to Iran’s Jews, acknowledging the reality of the Holocaust, disavowing nuclear weaponry,  and offering warm greetings to the American people—cannot by themselves undo the eight-year tenure of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a truculent fellow who used the world stage to spew anti-American and anti-Semitic tropes. As the process grinds on, everyone should also remember how limited presidential power is in the Iranian state, in which most significant authority is invested with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran is inching toward the bargaining table as economic sanctions continue to erode living standards in the Islamic Republic. We must be careful not to fall into the same trap in which North Korea has repeatedly ensnared the U.S., offering minimal concessions for the easing of sanctions, and then reneging on those commitments.

Despite our reservations, we should always seek the diplomatic avenue before considering other actions. The president has said all options remain on the table in confronting the threat of a nuclear Iran. In reality, the Syria imbroglio has shown us there is little appetite for military intervention, especially in the Near East. American interests remain in the balance, however. Israel, which was threatened with destruction by Ahmedinejad, sees an Iranian bomb as an existential threat, and may strike the country’s nuclear facilities if the Islamic Republic achieves a certain level of progress. This could be profoundly destabilizing for the region, perhaps setting off a multinational war.

That’s an ugly prospect, and Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry are approaching the problem with a solutions-oriented focus and a studied pragmatism. Let’s hope they carry the day.