Disentangling a Debt Debacle

We’ve got bills to pay.

That, in the most basic sense, describes the current debt ceiling crisis: Congress has already authorized certain payments—to fund the military, to dole out Social Security payments, and more—but the United States does not have the liquidity to afford following through on them. This crisis needs a hard and fast solution to stop the United States from, as World Bank and International Monetary Fund leaders warned, causing “massive disruption the world over.” After Congress solves this short-term problem, however, its members must work hard with the President to come to a long-term solution.

The United States has charted an unsustainable course toward fiscal difficulty. In the future, the country will almost surely prove unable to pay off the interest on its vast debt while simultaneously delivering the entitlement benefits it is obligated to pay citizens under the Social Security and Medicare programs. To navigate these treacherous seas, Congress and the President must work hard to develop a mutually agreeable, lasting fix—one that should and likely will involve both entitlement cutbacks and tax hikes.

This grand bargain, unfortunately, will not come in time to save the United States from defaulting on its debt. The Treasury estimates that it will be unable to continue paying all the government’s bills soon after—if not on—Thursday barring congressional intervention.

Such a default would have far-reaching, categorically negative consequences: First, the United States government will remain shut down, denying federal employees pay and all civilians the services they deserve. Second, the United States would risk a downgrade in its credit rating, raising its borrowing costs substantially. Finally, investors would likely sell off huge amounts of stocks and Treasury bonds, sending a shock throughout the national economy that would likely dwarf the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers. What’s more, the international community regards the United States as one of the world’s most stable investments. As a result, a fiscal meltdown here would decrease business confidence in markets across the globe, dealing countless citizens of countless countries a shattering blow.

These considerations underscore the need for a deal in time to avert an impending fiasco. Republican leadership in Congress have been struggling to muster the votes in their own party for a bill that allows the government to reopen and the United States to handle its debts the winter. This fledgling legislation, however (which all but fell apart Tuesday evening) included politically charged points like denying government health insurance payments to lawmakers and their employees.

But the time for political maneuvering and brinkmanship has passed. The current intransigence of a sizeable part of the Republican caucus is jeopardizing the economic health of our entire nation, and it must end. Congress must push through a measure more that funds the government, extends the debt limit, and requires the development of detailed financial blueprint mapping out decades to come. This type of agreement—close to what is shaping up in the Senate but with any and all politics aside—would postpone our current woes. More importantly, it would also force Congress to secure the United States’ economic future.

A short-term solution to the nation’s current crisis, though necessary, will ultimately amount to no more than a Band-Aid on a bullet hole. It may and must stem the flow of blood for now, but Congress must dive into full-scale surgery to ensure the United States’ good health.