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If Scott Brown’s election didn’t jettison the notion that the Republican electoral ship had sunk after the 2008 election, the current political climate certainly has. Despite their recent legislative victory in the health-care battle, the Democrats still stand to lose significant ground in the midterm elections. Although punishing sitting presidents with Congressional losses is ingrained in the American political tradition, recent polls suggest that voters may put an unusually severe dent in the Democrats’ current congressional majority. As the leader of his party, President Obama must take it upon himself to stop the bleeding. If he wants to protect Congressional Democrats in November, Obama must better recast his health-care pitch and correct misconceptions about his handling of the financial crisis to frame his presidency as responsive and effective.
Despite the conclusion of the yearlong debate and decades-old struggle of reforming health care, Obama finds himself fighting an uphill battle against a tide of Republican vitriol and popular ambivalence. But even with a majority of Americans still against the new health-care law, Obama must read between the numbers and figure out how to best sell this plan to the public. A comprehensive survey conducted by the Kaiser Health Tracking Poll illuminates possible pitches the president could effectively make to the public.
For instance, despite its mixed popularity, Americans overwhelmingly prefer some reform to no reform at all. Should Obama seize upon this point, he would expose the Republicans as the “party of no” and highlight the Democrats as the enablers of the public will. By casting his legislative victory as a response to popular clamoring for reform, Obama would aid the reelection bids of those Democrats whose yea votes now threaten their seats in November.
The financial sector is another region where Obama’s failure to advertise has cost him popularity points and political cache. Though the financial meltdown dominated global conversation for months, it has recently faded into the background of political discourse. Through the Troubled Asset Relief Program, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke ’75’s aggressive policies, and the Obama administration’s bold moves, the financial system has been resuscitated to a quasi-functional state, all to the negligence of the media and resultant ignorance of the general public.
Although increased liquidity and bank recapitalization have led to a much more sound and secure financial system, Obama has yet to publicize these developments, to his own detriment. Just a year ago, there were talks of a potential second Great Depression, but the aggressive actions taken by the Fed and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner have led financial analyst Richard Bove to conclude that “U.S. banks now have more capital as a percentage of assets than in any year since 1935.” Nevertheless, the perception remains that Washington is making all the wrong moves; critics on the left suspect an incestuous relationship between Wall Street and Capitol Hill and those on the right decry a socialist takeover of the financial system. Lost in this maelstrom of punditry is the fact that the government has recouped most of its bailout money and divested its involvement in banking. Obama must argue before the American public that his administration averted the country from financial disaster. If voters still believe that the government failed in handling this crisis by November, Obama will have only himself to blame, and Congressional Democrats will suffer.
Once left for dead, even by some of its leaders, the Republican Party has come roaring back into competition. The stakes are high in November; national opinion surveys show a two-percentage point GOP edge, and some polls even suggest that the Republicans could retake the Senate. Obama’s approval ratings have fallen by 24 percent in less than a year, in spite of having achieved his top legislative priority and overseeing a successful stabilization of the banking industry. Yes, the American people do tend to check their leaders by issuing them losses in midterm elections, but Obama’s performance doesn’t merit the dramatic backlash 2010 is shaping up to be.
To save his party from an embarrassing defeat in November, therefore, Obama must remove himself from the realm of public policy and reenter the sphere of politics that won him the presidency. He should reframe how he pitches the health-care law and correct the myriad misconceptions about the government’s handling of the financial crisis. Obama can learn a lesson from his candidate self; it was that Obama, after all, who, despite his paucity of qualifications, won the presidency with shrewd political positioning and image promotion. President Obama must rediscover his political acumen soon for the sake of his party. Otherwise, his successes will be for naught, as his governing coalition withers away come election day.
John W. He ’13, a Crimson editorial writer, lives in Weld Hall.
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