Massachusetts Governor Race Tight

Today, Americans across the state and the nation go to the polls to cast their votes in an election that pundits say will likely reflect a widespread sense of disappointment with the Democratic Party.

The Massachusetts gubernatorial race between current Governor Deval L. Patrick ’78, a Democrat, and Republican Charles D. Baker ’79 has been particularly close, drawing President Barack H. Obama to campaign for Patrick in a state usually considered a Democratic stronghold.

The latest Real Clear Politics poll average shows Patrick leading by 4.5 points with 44.3 percent of the vote, Baker trailing at 39.8 percent, and independent candidate Timothy Cahill third with 8.5 percent. According to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters, Patrick leads by just 2 points with 46 percent of the vote, compared to 44 percent for Baker and 6 percent for Cahill.

“People are angry, and when people are angry they tend to vote against the body in power,” said former Boston City Councillor Lawrence S. DiCara ’71, who continues to follow local politics closely.

Two years ago, Obama won Massachusetts easily with 62 percent of the vote. Earlier this year, however, the state elected Sen. Scott P. Brown, a Republican, as its junior senator.

“People are out of work and, notwithstanding Obama’s best intentions, if you’re out of work, you really don’t want to know the details,” DiCara said, adding that he believes that the economy and job creation are the most important issues in the race.

Baker told the Boston Globe that his top goals for 2011 are to reduce the sales and income taxes, abolish the alcohol tax, cap pensions, enforce tougher immigration policies, change business regulations, order a hiring and pay freeze, and ban project labor agreements.

Patrick’s top goals for 2011, as shared with the Globe, are to create jobs, reduce health care costs, reform education, address youth violence, and “continue to govern at the grass roots.”

DiCara said he believes that Patrick will ultimately win the election. He predicts that Patrick will win by 4 points, winning 46 percent of the vote to Baker’s 42 percent, close to the Real Clear Politics poll averages. He thinks Cahill will garner around 12 percent of the vote.

Despite the polling numbers, Baker’s campaign remains optimistic.

“We’re feeling very good about our chances,” said Baker campaign spokesman Rick Gorka. “Voters are anxious for a change, and they know Charlie Baker is the only candidate who has turned anything around.”

—Staff writer Sofia E. Groopman can be reached at segroopm@fas.harvard.edu.