Not Yet The Deluge

It was nip and tuck this week fro France’s present cabinet. Threatened by a possible breakdown in the Tunisian discussions, facing a withdrawal of his essential Independent cabinet support, and harassed by a police demonstration, Premier Felix Gaillard has so far managed to keep his position on the Parliamentary tight rope. But if his ministry falls, many commentators envision a possible collapse of the Fourth Republic.

The crises of this week help illustrate the paradox that is France; the volatile parliamentary government which crowns an economically healthy nation. According to Assistant Professor Stanley Hoffman, who teaches a course in French government and society, the present republic may not have effective power, but it knows how to protect itself and rebuff crises. The past days have seen Gaillard survive several.

Parisians were alarmed last Thursday when Paris police marched on the National Assembly demanding hazard pay for areas in which Algerian terrorists were active. France is a nation which never lets its history die, and the strike awoke fear of a right-wing Gaullist seizure of extra-legal power.

The Gaullist danger hung over the chamber on Tuesday when Gaillard staked his cabinet on a vote of confidence and won, 282-196. The Premier used the vote as a maneuver in his up-hill struggle to push stabilizing constitutional reforms through the Assembly, but he faces further debate on the proposal next week.

When the parliamentary weekend approached yesterday, the ministry could breath more easily; for Gaillard had temporarily preserved his government’s existence The independents, who had threatened to withdraw form the Cabinet and thus cause the Premier’s resignation if he compromised too much in the Tunisian dispute, decided to remain, at least temporarily, in the ministry. And at the same time, President Habib Bourbguiba of Tunisian reaffirmed his ties with West and indicated that he might compromise on several of the demands he has made as a result of the French bombings of Sakiet-Sidi-Youseff.

A governmental crisis has been averted, then at least until Tuesday when the Assembly reconvenes; and if Gaillard can survive until Friday, a three-week vacation may let him complete Tunisian negotiations.

Because the past week has seen crisis pile up on crisis, there has been quite a bit of speculation about the collapse of the Republic. But though it has been a critical time in the National Assembly, there seems little chance at present for a right wing coup. A police demonstration is far from an insurrection, and even if the cabinet falls, the parliamentary merry-go-round should keep on turning there are disaffected and frustrated army groups in France in addition to the extreme right wing parties, but according got Hoffman, de Gaulle seems sick of politics and gives his supporters little reason to believe that he will lead them to power.

At the bottom of many of the difficulties facing France lies the Algerian rebellion, which drains France of a million dollars daily, with little apparent result. But since the Second Empire; and her arte of economic growth has now surpassed even West Germany’s. Hoffman notes, “There is no point in telling people that disaster is around the corner as Mendes-Frances does, if when you round the corner you see a new automobile.”

And allied with the prosperity is the surprising fact according to Hoffman, that the Algerian War is a popular war. The people seem willing to finance it, and only a minority of intellectual come out for Algerian independence. It seems doubtful that the present situation will change radically in the near future.

Doubtful also is the prospect for quick, major changes in France’s government. The present parliamentary system has many fireworks but few explosions. Prosperity is increasing; the people, according to Hoffman, seem highly concerned over the length of paid holidays. For the Frenchman things are better than every, and the long-range fate of the nation in such circumstances is often a remote worry. As they say, “Plus ça change, plus c’est la meme chose.” The more things change in France the more they seem to stay the same.