IOP Poll Finds Young Voters Favor Obama

A national poll conducted by the Institute of Politics (IOP) showed that among young voters, Illinois Senator and Harvard Law School graduate Barack Obama is favored by a margin of more than two-to-one in the Democratic presidential race.

The online survey, administered to 2,452 young people around the country, found that 70 percent of youth between the ages of 18 and 24 who plan to vote for a Democratic candidate in the November general election prefer Obama, whereas 30 percent favor New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The margin has dramatically increased since an October IOP poll, in which Democratic primary voters between the ages of 18 and 24 gave Obama a slight advantage over Clinton: 38 percent to 33 percent.

President of Harvard Students for Barack Obama Nathaniel J. Lubin ’09 said that Obama’s central message of hope has a particular appeal for young voters. He added that Obama’s preeminence among young voters has been demonstrated in polls across the country.

“The principles that he’s really been espousing from the start have really been targeted toward a new generation,” Lubin said.

But Harvard Students For Hillary President Ari S. Ruben ’08 said that he is undaunted by the results.

“Obama is younger and newer,” Ruben said, “but I’m confident that if and when Hillary is the Democratic nominee, she will be able to make the case.”

According to an article in the New York Times, in this campaign, age has emerged as one of the most consistent indicators of how people vote, taking precedence over sex, income, and education. Race is the only indicator stronger than age, and this is only the case among black voters.

While age might put Clinton at a disadvantage among young voters, Ruben said that he thinks Clinton’s emphasis on a cleaner environment and focus on withdrawal from Iraq are particularly appealing to young voters.

In this IOP survey, 86 percent of pollees said that the economy has the highest level of importance, and 79 percent said that it was the most personally relevant issue.

“This is the first time since before 9/11 that young people have said that the economy is the most important [issue],” said Jonathan S. Gould ’10, student co-chair of the IOP Survey Group, who helped formulate the poll’s questions and analyze the data.

Gould added that the results, which were first presented at a Washington, D.C. press conference last week, have since been sent to the presidential campaigns of Clinton, Obama, and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.

“[The survey is] weighted to probably be the most accurate survey of young people out there,” Gould said. “This is absolutely something around the country that a lot of politicians read.”

—Staff writer Lindsay P. Tanne can be reached at ltanne@fas.harvard.edu.