Ferguson Links Progress and War

The 20th century was a time of unprecedented progress, Tisch Professor of History Niall Ferguson said yesterday. Life expectancy soared, quality of life improved, and democracy spread. But why was the twentieth century also the bloodiest?

According to Ferguson, who spoke to a crowd of 20 students at Hilles as part of the “Coffee with a View” series yesterday afternoon, the answer lies partly in that very progress.

In a talk entitled, “The War of the World,” Ferguson argued that the major ingredients for world war continue to loom today.

Ferguson said that economic volatility, ethnic disintegration, and empires in decline— what he called the “three E’s”—are responsible for the unprecedented scale of violence in the past century.

In the economic booms, said Ferguson, it was often minorities—such as the Jews in Europe and the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire—who disproportionately benefited. Then, “in the crunch, the blame for economic downturn could be placed on the successful minority,” he said.

In a time of Western decline—as in any time of imperial decline—Ferguson said, “the question is: Who is in charge now?”

While violence in the first half of the 20th century was concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe, Ferguson said the next fulcrum of violence will probably be the Middle East. All the ingredients for “megadeath” are there, he said.

But Ferguson said that “the importance of human agency” in starting wars should not be dismissed.

In the question and answer session that followed, when multiple students asked him to predict the level of violence in the next few decades, Ferguson said that “there’s no such thing as the future—there are only futures.”

Although Ferguson said that a major war within the next decade is likely, he said, “I’m describing to you only the preconditions for violence. This does not make it inevitable.”

Just as Nixon visited Beijing, he said, the next American president can visit Tehran and draw back from the brink of war.

“Violence is quite likely, and avoiding it will require leadership,” concluded Ferguson.