Professor Predicts Possible Civil War After 2008 Vote

Think America could never face another Civil War? Think again. According to one Harvard Business School Professor, a civil war is a real possibility following the 2008 election.

“We might possibly be headed for a real crash here,” said D. Quinn Mills, Weatherhead Jr. Professor of Business Administration.

To find out whether Harvard students agree with his hypothesis, Mills is running a two-week online discussion-based symposium this month that invites Harvard students to speak out about the possibility of a civil war following the next presidential election.

With the U.S. map politically polarized—northern and western states blue and southern ones red, with little bipartisan activity—Mills said he is 15-20 percent confident that America could face another Civil War if the 2008 election is as closely contested as the past two.

“I looked at the map of the last two elections and it looks a whole lot like the map of the U.S. just prior to the Civil War,” he said.

The website for the symposium, entitled “Blue! Red!” presents students—who are allowed to participate anonymously under names such as “rredbluesym”—with a scenario of a contested 2008 election in which the losing party does not concede, and asks them to discuss the possibility of a war breaking out.

But Harvard students are skeptical about Mills’ proposition.

President of the Harvard Democrats Eric P. Lesser ’07, who was contacted about the Symposium by one of Mills’ research associates, called Mills’ initiative “ridiculous,” “silly,” and “a bit outdated.”

“It seems a little silly to me to compare the complex series of events that led to the Civil War with the partisanship we see now,” Lesser wrote in an e-mail.

And one anonymous symposium participant wrote on the discussion board that “America is far too prosperous a country to have a serious civil war again.” Another wrote, “I see no civil war in the future.”

Alvin S. Felzenberg, a fellow at the Institute of Politics who conducted a study group about bipartisanship this spring, echoed Mills’ view that he has not seen such extreme political polarization in the U.S. since before the Civil War but added that he does not predict another war.

The symposium is divided into three modules that will examine parallels between the U.S. Civil War and today’s political polarization, ask students to consider the likelihood of civil war, and, if students do think a civil war is likely, conclude with a discussion of how to avoid that situation.

Mills estimated that eight individuals, including students from the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard Business School, and the College, have signed up so far, and Mills said he expects 20 students to participate.

—Staff writer Emily J. Nelson can be reached at ejnelson@fas.harvard.edu.