Charting the Road to Columbus

Unlike years past, no single program has emerged as the odds-on favorite to capture the NCAA title and any one of several schools could emerge from each of the regionals to challenge for the championship in Columbus on April 9.

Of course, if one were betting on a single conference, smart money would be on the WCHA, which earned five bids, including No. 1 seeds Denver, Colorado College, and Minnesota, the last of which will enjoy all the comforts of home prior to the Frozen Four. Play in the East and Midwest Regionals starts today, while the West and Northeast Regionals drop the puck tomorrow.

BREAKING DOWN UNH

RECORD: 25-10-5

SEED: 2

New Hampshire, Hockey East’s post-season runner up, has a 3-3-2 record in its last eight games and was awarded an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Harvard and UNH haven’t met since Dec. 14, 2000, when the Wildcats downed the Crimson at the Whittemore Center, 4-1, its fifth straight victory in the series. Harvard holds a 17-10 record all-time against UNH, though.

Though the two have not matched up head-to-head thus far this season, the Crimson managed a 3-3 record against Hockey East, splitting a pair with BC, defeating Maine and BU, and losing to Northeastern and Merrimack.

In six contests versus ECAC opponents, the Wildcats went 4-2, dropping St. Lawrence twice, Yale and Clarkson once, and losing to both Dartmouth and Vermont.

Strengths: New Hampshire enters tomorrow’s regional semifinal averaging 4.03 goals per game, good for second best in the country behind only Michigan.

Most of that firepower is drawn from the Wildcats’ first two lines, which feature six forwards with at least 30 points—more than any single member of the Crimson.

UNH’s top trio—Sean Collins, Preston Callander, and Brett Hemingway—is particularly potent, racking up a whopping 149 points, anchored by Collins’ 54.

The Wildcats also thrive on the power play, converting on a whopping 24.6 percent of their chances, the second-highest rate in the nation. Hemingway leads all scorers with 11 man-advantage goals, while Callander and defenseman Brian Yandle each have nine.

Yandle is no small threat at even-strength, either, with 35 points to his credit thus far this year.

UNH also regularly skates on an Olympic-sized rink at its home arena, the Whittemore Center, which should give the Wildcats a slight edge over Harvard, which rarely plays on a large sheet and will be forced to make the necessary adjustments.

Weaknesses: UNH’s defense isn’t quite as bad as its offense is good. But it’s close.

The Wildcats have allowed 2.70 goals per game and have surrendered four scores or more in 10 of their 40 contests thus far this season, hitting their nadir in a 9-8 loss to Dartmouth on Jan. 12.

Coach Dick Umile has alternated his goaltenders throughout the season, rotating freshman Kevin Regan and junior Jeff Pietrasiak every other game. Neither has distinguished himself and each has a goals-against average well above 2.00.

Pietrasiak is particularly streaky. He has posted the Wildcats’ only two shutouts this year, but has also given up five tallies or more three times, including all nine of the Big Green’s.

If Umile stands by his rotation, though, Regan will likely get the start tomorrow. Either way, UNH has little to fall back upon in the event that its offense runs into a brick wall in Dov Grumet-Morris.

Perhaps worst of all for the Wildcats, they have posted just a 2-4-2 record against tournament teams since Feb. 4, a discouraging indicator heading into single-elimination play with Harvard and Denver likely on the radar.

Key To Victory: If the past two weekends are any indication, UNH would be best served by getting to the net and depriving goaltender Dov Grumet-Morris of his space.

St. Lawrence, Colgate, and Cornell each went out of their respective ways to repeatedly bump into Grumet-Morris and knock him to the ground, which, at least in the ECAC’s final weekend, made the Hobey Baker candidate appear awfully uncomfortable at times in net.

And as the Big Red proved in last weekend’s ECAC championship game, screening Grumet-Morris is the key to scoring on the Crimson.

Though Cornell was able to notch one of its three scores in a 2-on-1 break, Grumet-Morris didn’t see either of the other two tallies from the point.

Regardless of whether that strategy is successful, UNH must dictate the pace of play and knock the Crimson defense back on its heels.

Though that matchup doesn’t lean in either direction, preventing Harvard’s offense from gaining any traction will be crucial to a Wildcats victory and a shot at advancing to the regional final.

DENVER: THE DEFENDING CHAMPS

RECORD: 28-9-2

SEED: 1

Fresh off a 1-0 victory over Colorado college in the WCHA tournament finals, the Pioneers enter the Northeast Regional with another piece of hardware to supplement memories of last year’s national championship celebration.

Denver has not faced Bemidji State this season, but the Pioneers hold a 5-1-1 record over the opponents the two squads have shared, while the Beavers have gone an abysmal 0-3-1 against those same teams.

Strengths: Denver is averaging an even four goals per contest on the year.

This is due, in large part, to a balanced roster that boasts 14 players with 10 points or more, a whopping six with more than 30 points, and two with more than 40.

Weaknesses: It’s hard to call the goaltenders of a team with 28 wins a weakness—but then again, the Pioneers do play in the WCHA.

As they begin to encounter teams with stronger defenses, the rotation between two young goalies—one of whom, Glenn Fisher, boasts an .890 save percentage—might face a stronger attack than that to which it has become accustomed.

Key To Victory: It is safe to say that Bemidji State’s in-conference competition—the other five schools in College Hockey America—come nowhere near the caliber of Denver. Should the Pioneers score early or mount a quick, aggressive offensive attack, there’s a strong chance that the Beavers will suffer the same fate they have all year long at the hands of Midwestern powerhouses: high-scoring losses.

BEMIDJI STATE: A WING AND A PRAYER

RECORD: 23-12-1

SEED: 4

Bemidji State defeated Alabama-Huntsville on March 13 to qualify for the NCAA tournament, courtesy of the CHA’s automatic bid.

But let’s face it, Beavers’ fans. You’ve captured a conference crown and advanced to college hockey’s big dance for the first time in your brief Division I history, where you’ll face the defending national champions. This is more likely than not where your Cinderella run comes to an end.

Strengths: Freshman goaltender Matt Climie has been red-hot as of late, allowing just two goals in his last four starts, a stretch punctuated by back-to-back shutouts to close out the CHA playoffs.

He’ll need to be every bit as good as his 1.69 goals-against average suggests if the Beavers are to shut down Denver’s high-flying offense.

Weaknesses: While Bemidji State’s non-conference schedule is tougher than those played by most of its CHA peers and has likely given the Beavers a taste of what to expect tomorrow, the squad’s lack of success against the nation’s premiere conferences is troubling. Tom Serratore’s bunch posted a 2-4-0 record against the CCHA—defeating Ferris State and Western Michigan—and an 0-5-1 mark versus the WCHA.

Key To Victory: Bemidji State will need to execute flawlessly if it is to have any hope of defeating the Pioneers.

Denver’s goaltending is steady, but nowhere near as deserving of respect as its offense, so the Beavers will have to clamp down in front of Climie at their own end, then hope to steal a goal or two at the other and pray that the bounces all go their way.

—Staff writer Timothy J. McGinn can be reached at mcginn@fas.harvard.edu.

—Staff writer Rebecca A. Seesel can be reached at seesel@fas.harvard.edu.