KSG Students Forecast 2008 Election

It’s been just three months since the 2004 presidential election, but students at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government (KSG) are already focusing on the 2008 race for the White House, forecasting a presidential win for Sen. Charles T. Hagel, R-Neb.

Four students—Miriam Barhoush, Kevin P. Bourke, Amanda M. Coe, and Paul H. Scott—compiled their predictions into a 50-page final paper for their KSG class, “Driving Forces in American Politics.” This December report has since been leaked to the media and has even arrived on the desk of Sen. Hagel himself.

“Sen. Hagel found the study very interesting. There will probably be a lot of other studies like this between now and 2008,” Hagel’s Spokesman Mike W. Buttry said, adding that Hagel will decide whether he will run after the 2006 Senatorial elections.

In their paper, the students predicted Hagel’s 2008 electoral victory based on the “conservative realignment of the nation,” coupled with the inability of the Democrats to reinvent the party in four years.

“We’re really confident in the trends we see the country going towards,” said Scott. “We think the economy will go on the upswing, and we think the Christian right’s values will take somewhat of a backseat.”

They predicted that Hagel will choose Massachusetts Governor W. Mitt Romney as his vice presidential candidate in a race against Democrat Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and his running mate, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner. The students said Bayh’s centrist message will help him secure the Democratic nomination.

But before the Democrats can win again, the party must define moral values with rural voters in mind, according to the paper. They must also articulate a message that reinvigorates the party, a task the students said could be achieved by putting Howard Dean at the helm of the Democratic National Committee.

Maintaining the current Republican infrastructure will be the key to GOP success, the KSG students contended. But they acknowledged that both parties will need to compromise if they want to attract voters.

“The parties are...such polar opposites right now,” Bourke said. “We found that in order to win, they need to move to the middle.”

The group sifted through lists of dozens of potential candidates. For the Republicans, they guessed that Hagel will battle Sen. George Allen, Sen. Bill Frist, Rudy Giuliani, and Colorado Governor Bill Owens for the nomination. On the Democratic side, they predicted that Bayh, Sen. Hillary R. Clinton, former vice presidential candidate John Edwards, Sen. Russ Feingold, and Governor Bill Richardson would enter the race.

“All of the names in the paper are very seriously considering running,” Bourke said. “But overcoming name recognition is a major issue.”

Scott said the group ruled out many popular candidates. He discounted Jeb Bush’s candidacy because of the country’s resistance to dynasties. He noted that Sen. John McCain’s age makes him an unlikely candidate.

“I think our analysis is strong and I think a lot of things are going to happen in terms of policy that could change the direction of voters over the next couple of years,” Bourke said.

—Staff writer Javier C. Hernandez can be reached at jhernand@fas.harvard.edu.