M. Hockey Heads North

All ECAC games count equally in the conference standings. But some count more equally than others.

Despite kicking off its schedule with a 0-2-1 record in league play, the No. 11 Harvard men’s hockey team (18-7-2, 15-4-1) can—with wins this weekend at Dartmouth and Vermont—secure at least a No. 2 seed in the ECAC playoffs, capture its first Ivy title since 2000, and shore up its claim for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Not exactly the same stakes as when the Crimson last lost a conference matchup—against Colgate on Jan. 7—nine ECAC wins ago.

“I think it’s pretty self-explanatory,” junior center Charlie Johnson said of this weekend’s games. “They’re huge.”

Entering play this evening, the Crimson trails No. 2 Cornell (20-4-3, 16-2-2) in the races for both the Ancient Eight and ECAC regular-season titles, with the Big Red all but assured of capturing the latter. Only an unlikely zero-point weekend for Cornell at St. Lawrence and Clarkson, both of whom Harvard downed last weekend, combined with a pair of Crimson wins would deny the Big Red its third Cleary Cup in four years.

But irrespective of Cornell’s performance, anything less than a sweep for Harvard will jeopardize its second-place finish. Colgate, also paired with Clarkson and St. Lawrence this weekend, sits just one point behind the Crimson and would likely leapfrog Harvard with any slipup, as the Raiders own the first tiebreak—head-to-head competition, in which they hold a 2-0 edge.

Harvard’s hopes of foiling Cornell’s bid on a fourth consecutive Ivy title, though, are significantly less reliant on factors beyond the Crimson’s control. Trailing the Big Red by just one point, Harvard needs only to win tonight against the Big Green (15-10-2, 12-8-0) to displace Cornell, which has no Ancient Eight contests remaining on its slate.

“It’s a championship, so it would be nice to win it,” assistant captain Tom Cavanagh said. “I don’t think it’s necessarily something that everyone’s very aware of all the time, but it’s a championship. It would be great for our program to win it. We haven’t won it in a while.”

Perhaps most importantly, though, both Dartmouth and Vermont are—on the strength of their ratings percentage indices (RPI)—“teams under consideration” by the NCAA tournament selection committee, increasing the value of any wins the Crimson might come away with this weekend.

At present, Harvard sits in 11th in the pairwise rankings (PWR)—which attempt to reproduce the formula used by the NCAA to determine at-large bids to the tournament—though the unspecified value of the bonus points awarded for each quality win could boost the Crimson as high as seventh.

Roughly speaking, then, Harvard would likely be assigned a No. 3 seed were the tournament’s 16-team field to be announced right now.

The likelihood of a No. 2 seed would certainly improve, however, with a pair of wins this weekend, due to three of the factors considered by the committee: record against other teams under consideration, RPI, and performance against common opponents.

After tomorrow night, Harvard will likely not face another team under consideration until the ECAC semifinals, while several of the tournament hopefuls with which the Crimson is jockeying for positioning, particularly those in Hockey East and the WCHA, will see their fair share prior to the end of their regular and post-seasons.

“It’s a little tough to understand,” Johnson said. “I’m not really sure how the pairwise works. A lot of teams out west are playing tougher teams week in and week out, so it’s harder for us to move up.”

That, in turn, drops Harvard’s RPI as well. After defeating Clarkson 5-0 on Feb. 18, the Crimson actually fell four spots in the PWR because the Golden Knights had dragged down Harvard’s RPI. Neither Vermont nor Dartmouth will have that effect, but the expected bump the tandem will provide the Crimson comes only with a pair of victories.

Wins against the Catamounts and Big Green may have their most profound effect on the common opponents category, though, given the limited number of shared adversaries the Crimson and out-of-conference teams are likely to have. Wisconsin, currently locked in a four-way tie for seventh, and Harvard, for example, have just one shared opponent—Yale. The Bulldogs tied the Badgers, but twice fell to the Crimson, giving Harvard the edge.

Of the teams clustered just ahead of and immediately behind the Crimson, Hockey East-leading New Hampshire has already played both the Big Green and the Catamounts, Boston University has hosted Vermont, and Mass.-Lowell has skated at Dartmouth. All three hold a narrow edge over Harvard, which could be erased this weekend, so long as the Crimson holds serve—and receives a little outside assistance.

“Most of the time, we’re just worried about ourselves,” assistant captain Tom Cavanagh said. “The same goes for all the other teams. I guess occasionally, at the end of the year, you’ve got to watch to see how other teams are doing, just to see where you’re going to finish.”

—Staff writer Timothy J. McGinn can be reached at mcginn@fas.harvard.edu.