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Entering the final weekend of a bizarre first half, your clubhouse leader in the Ivy title chase is Harvard.
Umm, nope.
How about Penn? Wrong again. Brown? Not a chance.
Your league leader rounding the Week Five turnpost is Yale.
While the Quakers are likely to match the Bulldogs with a 2-0
mark heading into the Ivy-only portion of the season, the absence of
the Bears and the Crimson has become one of the biggest stories of the
young Ivy season. Harvard’s loss of most of its first- and second-team
offense and its penchant for spotting its opponents five or six
turnovers have turned the league bully into the whipping boy.
Brown’s unfortunate, yet all too common, collapse against the
Crimson has forced the Bears into a must-win situation against
Princeton to avoid dropping out of the Ivy race after just two games.
Can the Bears stay in the title hunt? Let’s get to this weekend’s matchups.
GAME OF THE WEEK: PRINCETON AT BROWN (-9)
It’s scary how eerily similar the 2004 and 2005 seasons have been.
Princeton started off both years with a shocking win over
Lafayette, the eventual Patriot League champs, and victories over San
Diego and Columbia before losing a tight contest to Colgate. Brown
kicked off each with a blowout win in a tune-up game, a collapse
against Harvard, and wins over Rhode Island and Fordham.
The Tigers won the contest 24-10, but the Bears won the war, finishing 6-4 overall to Princeton’s 5-5.
Once again, the Tigers are on the verge of proving to the
league that they are for real. History isn’t on their side. Neither is
common sense. Brown is better at every skill position on offense,
including running back: Nick Hartigan is currently second in the nation
with 145.5 yards per game.
Brown will make amends for last season’s debacle and win by two scores.
PENN (-13.5) AT COLUMBIA
Can’t move the ball, can’t stop the ball, can’t punt the ball.
Maybe that’s why the Lions can’t win.
The Quakers, on the other hand, have one of the nation’s top
scoring offenses and defenses, as well as a top-flight special teams
unit. This might just be the showdown of the Ivy League’s most and
least complete teams.
It’s hard to bet against the Quakers after they destroyed
Bucknell last weekend 53-7. At worst, Penn is two touchdowns better
than Columbia. At best, Penn could send the Wien Stadium faithful
scrambling for the exits by halftime. Take the Quakers and spot the
Lions the points.
GEORGETOWN AT CORNELL (-10.5)
Don’t let that 10.5 number in front of the Big Red scare you off.
The Hoyas are terrible. They’ve scored 26 points in their last four games, and their defense gave up 48 to Holy Cross.
Granted Cornell isn’t going to run up and down the field on
anyone. But the Big Red defense will keep Georgetown to 10 or fewer
points, and Cornell should be able to muster at least 20.
This will probably be the only time in quite a while where
picking the Big Red to cover a double-digit spread is a good idea, so
take Cornell and proudly spot the Hoyas the touchdown and field goal.
YALE AT LEHIGH (-9)
The Bulldogs seem less than interested in showing up for any portion of their non-league slate.
So far this season, Yale has stood idly by as San Diego and
Holy Cross snuck away with wins. In the week following each of those
losses, the Bulldogs dominated their league opponents, Cornell and
Dartmouth, en route to a 2-2 start, 2-0 Ivy.
With Penn on the horizon, don’t expect Yale to alter its
course, as the Bulldogs will probably sleepwalk into and out of
Bethlehem, picking up a double-digit defeat along the way.
The Mountain Hawks fell to the Crusaders and the sloppy
conditions last weekend, so look for them to respond in a big way with
a two- or three-touchdown victory.
DARTMOUTH (+13.5) AT HOLY CROSS
While the Crusaders have performed well above the pre-season expectations, are they really two touchdowns better than Dartmouth?
The Big Green’s defense seems too good to keep Holy Cross—and
newly enshrined Payton Award watch member, running back Steve
Silva—from putting up more than 24 points. It’s just hard to get the
separation necessary to cover such a big spread in a low-scoring game.
Take Dartmouth and the two scores and hope that Silva
remembers that he wasn’t even on the Patriot League watch list at the
start of 2005.
—Staff writer Michael R. James can be reached at mrjames@fas.harvard.edu.
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