Scouting the Opponents

HOLY CROSS

2003 record: 1-11 (1-6 Patriot)

ANALYSIS: I’ve been fuming over Penn and Princeton’s decision to waste a valuable out-of-region trip on I-AA mid-major San Diego. Yet, San Diego managed to storm into Worcester and beat Holy Cross last weekend. Well, stormed might not be the correct term in this situation. Rather, it was more like San Diego showed up and Holy Cross tried repeatedly to give the Toreros the game. Crusader quarterback John O’Neil threw a pick early in the fourth that was returned for a touchdown to put San Diego up by 14.

After Holy Cross rallied to knot the score at 24, Crusader runningback Stephen Silva fumbled the ball at his own eight-yard line with just 1:24 remaining. The Toreros scored. Holy Cross returned the ensuing kickoff 92 yards, but proceeded to call three unnecessary timeouts en route to the tying touchdown. This left San Diego enough time to drive for the game-winning score, a 26-yard pass to paydirt as time expired.

PREDICTION: The only Crusade that Holy Cross will need to concern itself with is the one to the buses, which will undoubtedly be left running during the game.

BROWN

2003 record: 5-5 (4-3 Ivy)

ANALYSIS: Junior runningback Nick Hartigan averaged 150 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards a game last year while scoring 15 touchdowns. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Brown’s most experienced returning quarterback registered nine completions all of last season, and its top wideout, Lonnie Hill, has decided to take the year off.

For Brown to have a chance it will need Hartigan to have a monster game against a Crimson defense that will stack the box with four defensive linemen, three linebackers, two safeties, eight members of the Harvard marching band and a couple of hobos from the Providence Amtrak station.

The Bears defense is strong enough to keep this game from getting ugly. It won’t. But theoretically it could. The Brown offense probably won’t be on the field long enough to allow the defense to walk from the sideline to the bench, resulting in a level of fatigue that smacks of a blowout.

PREDICTION: I’d be shocked if the only contest of which to speak in the fourth quarter wasn’t between disappointed Brown fans jostling for position toward the exits and their vehicles.

LAFAYETTE

2003 record: 5-6 (2-5 Patriot)

ANALYSIS: This year the Leopards decided to experiment with the option in order to take advantage of its positions of strength. That’s a good move for a team whose leading passer coming into the season had a total of one completion in his college career and whose leading receiver and leading rusher are the same person.

In its opener against Marist, the Lafayette ground attack was rolling to the tune of 289 yards on 56 carries and a time of possession of nearly 35 minutes. But the following week, Georgetown shut the Leopards down, allowing a scant 2.8 yards per carry.

After its matchup with the Bears the week prior, Harvard should be well-versed in stopping the run and should be able to match, if not surpass, the Hoyas’ effort. And the Crimson won’t have to worry about the pass, since the Leopards, themselves, have shut that dimension down by committing to the option.

PREDICTION: After Harvard’s done spanking the Leopards on Oct. 2, Lafayette will be glad that they don’t have to return to Easton, Penn., for a span of more than a month.

CORNELL

2003 record: 1-9 (0-7 Ivy)

ANALYSIS: The Big Red returns 18 starters from a squad that placed last in 10 different statistical categories. Last in scoring offense by a full touchdown and PAT, last in scoring defense, last in rushing offense, last in rushing defense, last in turnovers, and the list goes on. In other words, they couldn’t move the ball, they couldn’t stop the ball and they couldn’t hold onto the ball.

Shockingly, they managed just one victory last season and lost by double digits eight times.

First-year coach Jim Knowles has brought a new attitude to Ithaca, that’s for sure. But attitude can’t change the fact that his top returning running back gained only 446 yards last season and his top wideout posted just 36 receptions for 419. So there appears to be little relief in sight for a club that scored in double digits only five times last season never was able to score more than 24 points in a game.

PREDICTION: It’s six hours from Ithaca to Cambridge, but that will appear to be a brief instant compared to the interminable drubbing the Cornell will receive at Harvard Stadium.

NORTHEASTERN

2003 record: 8-4 (6-3 Atl. 10)

ANALYSIS: The Huskies opened up the 2004 season with a 71-0 win over Cheyney and followed it up with a 28-24 loss to Division I-A Navy—a team which capped off an impressive 2003 campaign with a bowl appearance.

Northeastern will be the Crimson’s first test in the 2003 season, and a mighty big test at that. The Huskies present a formidable rushing offense, as five different backs gained at least 47 yards in the team’s opener, and each of those players averaged over five yards a carry. Navy had plenty of success shutting down the Huskies’ rush, but Northeastern’s success through the air took the focus off the ground game.

Last year, the Crimson shut down that potent rushing offense in a soggy contest and left Harvard Stadium with 28-20 victory. Harvard will need the same performance against the rush this year, because scoring 28 points on the Husky defense—led by Buchanan Award nominee Liam Ezekiel—will be a tall task.

PREDICTION: The last two years this game has been close, and there’s no reason to believe this one will be any different. Since it’ll be tight, I have to take the Crimson at home.

PRINCETON

2003 record: 2-8 (2-5 Ivy)

ANALYSIS: The Tigers nearly shocked the Ivy world last year by taking the then-undefeated Crimson to overtime in Cambridge before falling 43-40.

Princeton boasts a young, talented defense that should go a long way toward curbing Harvard’s offensive explosion of last season. The Tiger offense, however, lost its top wide-reciever, B.J. Szymanski, to the MLB draft. It’s top returning running back, Jon Veach, had a field day against the Crimson, gaining 205 yards, but struggled against everyone else, posting just 437 yards in the other nine contests. Quarterback Matt Verbit had a strong 2003, but is no where near the Alvin Cowan or Ryan Fitzpatrick echelon.

The Tigers will be able to stay in games with their defense. But they won’t be able to win games with their offense, a fact which should once again relegate Princeton to the lower half of the Ivy League standings.

PREDICTION: Harvard has won eight straight against Princeton, and it’s safe to pencil in a ninth. Expect the Crimson to flirt with breaking its largest margin of victory against the Tigers (28).

DARTMOUTH

2003 record: 3-7 (2-5 Ivy)

ANALYSIS: Call this one Grudge Match I. No one will ever forget Andrew Hall’s leaping one-handed catch that essentially broke Harvard’s back in the 30-16 Big Green win last year.

Hall was at best the third option in the passing game that day, behind All-Ivy wideout Jay Barnard and All-Ivy tight end Casey Cramer. With Barnard and Cramer lost to graduation along with their combined 1,556 receiving yards, now it is Hall’s turn to steal the show, just as he did last year against the Crimson. Dartmouth does return last year’s starting quarterback Charlie Rittgers, so the passing game shouldn’t take too much of a step backward. That’s good news, because running back Chris Little is not a gamebreaker.

One of the strengths of the squad is its kicker Tyler Lavin, who has a booming leg. And quality kicking is important in close games. Which means it shouldn’t matter much against Harvard, Yale or Penn.

PREDICTION: This marks the first of two revenge games, and the Crimson will play like it. Dartmouth won by two TDs in 2003, but they’ll be lucky to lose by just that amount this season.

COLUMBIA

2003 record: 4-6 (3-4 Ivy)

ANALYSIS: The Columbia football renaissance is underway, and Harvard got a taste of it last season, as it fell 16-13 to the Lions. This year, the Crimson will not be vulnerable to a Columbia surprise, but instead will be looking for blood in Grudge Match II.

The Lions have a much improved offense which boasts an All-Ivy lock in tight end Wade Fletcher. Fletcher has the most receiving yards of any returning player this season, and is primed for a breakout season. Quarterback Jeff Otis will be able to get him the ball and the passing attack should flourish. The ground game on the other hand will be a work in progress. Otis is the team’s top returning rusher, so the Lions will need a back to step up in order to take the pressure off of Fletcher.

Columbia will keep registering the minor seismic shocks that befit a rising program. But the Lions are still at least a season away from making any serious noise in the Ivy League race.

PREDICTION: Fitzpatrick returns and the Crimson will refuse to take the Lions lightly. The combination should result in an easy victory for Harvard in Cambridge.

PENNSYLVANIA

2003 record: 10-0 (7-0 Ivy)

ANALYSIS: Ivy League POY Mike Mitchell is gone, top linebacker Steve Lhotak has graduated, as well. Yet, Penn still has the inside track for the Ivy title, choosing to shun rebuilding for the far more effective reloading.

Ric San Doval’s 86 tackles and 4.5 sacks will fill in nicely for the departed Lhotak. Quarterback Pat McDermott will likely fail to even approach Mike Mitchell’s MVP status, but he won’t have to, as Penn returns first-team All-Ivy wideout Dan Castles and first-team running back Sam Mathews.

That isn’t to say that McDermott won’t have to be good for the Quakers to have success. The conservative approach with McDermott nearly ended Penn’s bid for an undefeated season, as the Quakers escaped 14-13 over Bucknell with him at the helm in place of an injured Mitchell. Penn’s first test of the year—a matchup with Villanova comes just two games in, so McDermott better grow into the position quickly.

PREDICTION: Once again, this game will decide the Ivy title. It will come down to McDermott’s development, because if Penn’s offense is clicking, you should just hand it the title.

YALE

2003 record: 6-4 (4-3 Ivy)

ANALYSIS: For Alvin and the Bulldog chipmunks this is the year to claim the Ivy crown. Quarterback Alvin Cowan is a potential All-American and was placed on the Payton Award watch list (along with Harvard quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick).

With running back Robert Carr and wideout Ralph Plumb putting the “skill” in skill position players, Yale could quite possibly score 400 points this season. So, however, could its opponents. And that’s the key to the season for the Bulldogs. Twice last season Yale reached the 40-point plateau only to lose by double-digits. With Colgate and Lehigh on the slate early in the season, the Bulldogs will need to improve quickly on that side of the ball.

The defense does not need to undergo a cataclysmic change. It does not need to be spectacular. Rather, it just needs to generate enough stops to get the ball to its offense, something which it struggled with at (most) times last season.

PREDICTION: I’m holding off on quoting a final score until our Harvard-Yale supplement, but let me just say that the quarterback play will undoubtedly make this game a classic.

—Staff writer Michael R. James can be reached at mrjames@fas.harvard.edu.