Jumping the Gun

Just about the only consistently positive news coverage Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass., has gotten since clinching the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination has been on the mystery surrounding who his running mate will be. But he’s about to lose that edge prematurely—if he fulfills expectations and completes his ticket soon. Indeed, the smart money seems to be on a VP pick early in an extremely long presidential race, despite a number of good reasons to wait. If Kerry is wise, he will resist the temptation to buck tradition and name his number two far in advance of the July Democratic National Convention. A hungry media is craving Kerry’s selection and, when it’s made, will digest it with haste. His best biscuit will be gone with November still many months away.

Certainly, the Kerry campaign is playing short-handed right now. Kerry has to respond to criticism from both President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney, and the democratic candidate is at a decided disadvantage in fundraising as a one man show. The media’s focus on the War on Terror and the Sept. 11 Commission in recent weeks has also taken the spotlight off Kerry just as soon as he was getting into candidate mode.

Nevertheless, John Kerry needs to find other ways to generate excitement in his early campaign. Naming a vice-presidential candidate in the spring leaves the Kerry campaign with an uneventful summer, and might even make the convention—usually the Democrats’ rallying point, and a time when Kerry will really want the nation paying attention—less of a show with two stale nominees. Moreover, as weeks progress, Democrats will get better at responding to and predicting Bush campaign tactics, as the president lets loose his campaign juggernaut. Kerry can use the time to assess public perceptions of his political liabilities and weaknesses to make a more informed running-mate selection.

Political timing can make or break an election. Howard Dean peaked too early in this year’s Democratic primaries, as did Al Gore in the last presidential election. The Bush-Cheney campaign has more than enough financial ammunition and media savvy to make a spring running-mate selection old news. So whether Kerry’s ace will be former primary foe John Edwards, Republican buddy John McCain, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson or anyone else, he should let the speculators speculate and the pundits wonder. The Kerry campaign may be craving more buzz in April, but if the candidate shows his hand too early, the Bush-Cheney machine may just find a way to make his ace the low card.