Crime Study May Have Flawed Analysis

Inside of many overflowing undergraduate doorboxes lies a double-sided flyer claiming that Harvard is not safe.

Its creator—the Student-Alumni Committee on Institutional Security Policy (StalCommPol), which is unaffiliated with the University—has served as a controversial watchdog group of the Harvard University Police Department (HUPD) since its founding in October 2001.

The group, headed by former extension school student and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) alum James “Jake” Herms, has made headlines in college newspapers and is drawing the criticism of HUPD and others familiar with its activities.

In February, StalCommPol—a non-profit campus security consulting firm—released a study that said a Harvard student is at a significantly greater risk to become a victim of violent crime than students at seven other comparable institutions.

But critics say the study may not be accurate because of misleading methods of data analysis.

The study compared violent crime at Harvard to violent crime at University of Chicago, Columbia, Harvard, Johns Hopkins, MIT, Penn and Yale.

Herms, who currently has a trespass warning that prohibits him from stepping foot on campus, says he has hired 11 Harvard undergraduates, two Harvard graduate students and four MIT students to work for the group, Herms, who says he holds five patents including four for Sensodyne toothpaste, says StalCommPol operates for the public good using funds from anonymous donors to sponsor research projects by students.

But Herms says that HUPD Chief Francis D. “Bud” Riley would prefer to ignore the StalCommPol calculation of Harvard’s high violent crime rate.

“They don’t want to acknowledge when crime happens on campus,” Herms says.

Riley denies the claim.

“I will not respond to this outrageous allegation other than to say I have always met, and will continue to meet, discuss, work with, and problem-solve security and safety issues with any responsible and credible member of the community or extended community,” Riley says. “This fact is also true for the entire membership of the HUPD.”

HUPD spokesperson Steven G. Catalano says that while HUPD officials have been in contact with StalCommPol members, they are not working with Herms.

“The chief and all members of the HUPD have, are presently, and will continue to work with any responsible and credible member of the Harvard University community,” Catalano says. “We are at this time working with students from Mr. Herms’ group, but not with Mr. Herms directly.”

STAT 101

According to the StalCommPol website, a Harvard student’s risk of becoming a victim of a violent crime is more than three times that of a Columbia or Johns Hopkins University student.

But Catalano says these results might result from the data analysis used. Herms’ data combines Longwood and Cambridge campus statistics.

The institutions in the StalCommPol study are all private four-year universities located in a large city with 25 percent or more students in on-campus housing.

StalCommPol used statistics on violent crime that every campus police department is obligated to report to the Department of Education every year under the Clery Act.

Violent crime includes murder, non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery and assault with a weapon.  The study does not include criminal offenses which took place within an on-campus residence hall because Herms says he prefers to focus on street crimes.

“These are the crimes that the FBI categorizes as violent crimes when they do their crime index,” Herms says.

Catalano, however, says he was not able to replicate StalCommPol’s data analysis until he met with students from the group in early March after which, Catalano says, Herms changed the information on his website.

But Catalano maintains that Herms’ inclusion of Longwood data leads to misleading results.

Herms’ crime statistics include incidents that occurred on “public” property, which Catalano defined as areas contiguous to and surrounding Harvard-owned property.

“When 99 percent of crime on Longwood occurs on public property, then what you get is increased crime rate for Harvard as a whole,” Catalano says.

To illustrate the discrepancies, Catalano says that when HUPD compares crime rates from Harvard’s Cambridge campus and Penn’s campus, excluding public property for both, Harvard had 34.4 violent crimes per 10,000 students, faculty and staff and Penn had 49.2 per 10,000 on average annually, based on data from 2000-2002.

When public property is included in these figures, Harvard had 96.1 violent crimes per 10,000 and Penn had 87 violent crimes per 10,000 based on data from the same period.

Though Catalano says grouping the public and the on-campus crime together is misleading, he says that disclosing the crimes that occur on public property is still important to HUPD because it raises awareness about Harvard’s surroundings.

“We draw our borders fairly liberally,” Catalano says. ” And we feel that’s appropriate. We want to avoid the appearance at all costs of hiding crime or downplaying crime. We just don’t do it. We could be more selective in the way in which we define public property but we don’t feel that’s appropriate.”

A source familiar with StalCommPol’s research describes it as “very sketchy.”

“It’s like he chooses the numbers he likes and twists them. He likes to interpret them in ways that are damaging to Harvard,” the source says.

But Herms stands by his analysis.

“Harvard has the highest crime rate reported of the comparison schools. My organization is addressing the causes of that, and it’s also providing short-term remedies until the root problems are addressed,” Herms says. “We have more inside information on Harvard safety than HUPD does.”

OFF CAMPUS

Though his group investigates the security of students at Harvard, Herms is prohibited from stepping on campus.

Harvard issued Herms a trespass order for the entire campus in Fall 2003.

According to a letter from the University to Herms’ attorney which Herms gave to The Crimson, his official restriction from Harvard property came after a number of individual incidents.

The events, which occurred over a three-year span, included “making in appropriate comments with sexual connotations to students at the Dudley House Co-op, misrepresenting his relationship with the Harvard Security guards and the Committee Against Sexual Violence at Harvard....culminating with Mr. Herms’ solicitation of students to work for him by drinking alcoholic beverages with university police officers.”

Herms says that the Dudley Co-op incident referred to when he suggested that their winter party have a University Health Services licensed massage therapist instead of alcohol.

“It’s certainly very wholesome,” he says. “[I was also accused] of making remarks with a sexual connotation to a Dudley student.”

Herms describes the “culminating” incident as a time when he was looking to hire research associates through Harvard Student Agencies for StalCommPol. Herms says he asked students the question “Can you hold your liquor?” and HUPD, he says, thought this was inappropriate.

Herms says he does not take the resulting trespass order seriously.

“Am I resentful because of that?” Herms says. “It’s a joke, I’ve been on

Harvard property as much since that has been in place as I was before and the Harvard police know it.”

Riley says that HUPD in general takes trespass warnings very seriously.

“To get a no trespass letter, there has to be a concern on our part about the safety, security and ability of our community to work and study unimpeded,” Riley says. “There has to be enough concern there that would require us to do this.”

Riley adds that trespass warnings for the entire campus are not given out often.

“Also to get a letter of trespass, I have to be convinced by administrators about [the person’s] behavior or fear of behavior,” Riley says. “They are not given out lightly and they are given out infrequently.”

Herms’ interest at Harvard extends beyond security and into the world of labor. His website contains a description of his involvement with a conflict between Harvard University and the Harvard University Security, Parking and Museum Guards Union.

According to the site, the project was undertaken for a Harvard Extension School course from 2001-2002.

INSIDE INFORMATION

Two sources familiar with StalComPol’s investigations, who agreed to comment on the condition of anonymity, say they believe Herms has an agenda to portray Harvard in a negative light.

The sources, who are no longer affiliated with the group, are quick to acknowledge that they personally dislike Herms.

One of the sources says that Herms has had a “vendetta against the Harvard police chief” since he received a trespass warning during the Progressive Student Labor Movement (PSLM) sit-in in April 2001.

At that time, Herms says he threw packets of nicotine chewing gum to protestors since they were unable to smoke inside of Mass. Hall.

“He’s been scheming for a while about how to get back at them. He reportedly created an impartial consulting firm...and Harvard would seem to have an abnormally high crime rate,” the source says. “I honestly would not trust anything he had to say.”

But Herms, who stresses the objectivity and good intentions of StalCommPol, says he has no ulterior motives.

“I feel very positive towards Harvard,” says Herms, who says he first became interested in violent crime prevention because he dated a woman who had been a rape victim. “And I’ve realized that everyone at Harvard is not working in the University’s interest. I’m glad I can do something to help Harvard and help students.”

But another source says that the students Herms employs do not share his stated goals.

“The money is ridiculous. That’s why people do it,” he says, adding that StalCommPol research associates receive at least $17 cash per hour. “The people in the group have no interest in Jake Herms or his mission. They’ll never tell you this because Jake is so adamant about what he thinks he’s doing.”

—Staff writer Hana R. Alberts can be reached at alberts@fas.harvard.edu