M. Hockey's Playoff Picture Takes Shape

For the Harvard men’s hockey team, this season has boiled down to a set of statements that fit into one of three categories.

First, what we know for certain:

· Harvard will have a first-round bye in the ECAC tournament, which is given to the top four teams in the league during the regular season. The Crimson is currently in second place, three points behind Cornell, and there is no way that more than one team in the current fourth-place logjam (Brown, Dartmouth and Union) could catch Harvard during the last four games of the regular season. There’s no sense in going into detail—it’s too complicated. Just trust that your buddies on the team will have the weekend of Mar. 7-9 off. Plan accordingly.

· This weekend’s road trip will be difficult. Harvard plays at Dartmouth on Friday night, and the Big Green is an impressive 11-2 at home this season, including a win over then-No. 1 Boston College Nov. 26. The Crimson then meets a Vermont team on Saturday that has won three of five and is coming off its first weekend sweep since Bush the Younger took office.

· Every game from here on out is critical to Harvard’s NCAA tournament hopes. No elaboration needed here. After Saturday’s near-miss against Cornell, the Crimson has no margin for error.

Next, what we know … sort of:

· Harvard will finish second in the ECAC. Cornell is playing too well to let the Crimson make up three points over the course of four games. Similarly, even with its loss to the Big Red, Harvard has still won three of its last four and four of its last six. It’s playing good hockey and should be able to hold off any late surge from Yale, which is four points back.

·  With his nine-point week, which included five points and a hat trick in Friday night’s 7-0 win over Colgate, Harvard captain Dominic Moore made a strong statement that he is a top candidate for the ECAC Player of the Year Award. He now leads the league in power-play goals, is second in goal-scoring and third in point-scoring. He is playing his best hockey of the year—perhaps of his career-—and he’s getting hot when his team needs him the most. League coaches often make post-game comments to the effect that he’s one of the best players on both ends of the ice in every game he plays. And they’re the ones voting. Stay tuned.

Finally, what is interesting to think about:

·  If the regular season ended today and the playoffs went along without upsets, Harvard would play Yale in the ECAC semifinals. Each team has traditionally dominated on home ice in the series, so what would happen in Albany, N.Y.?

· The NCAA tournament selection committee considers strength of schedule (e.g., average opponents’ win percentage) when choosing at-large teams. Will that hurt Harvard? Well, while the Crimson will play a sub.-500 opponent in its quarterfinal series Mar. 14-16, the teams that Harvard is competing against for a berth will face much stiffer competition (and therefore improve their ‘opponents’ win percentage’ figure). Providence, for example, is two notches ahead of the Crimson in the ever-critical Pairwise Rankings (PWR) and is on track for a Hockey East quarterfinal tussle with Boston University.

At-Large Bid in the Cards?

Speaking of the NCAA tournament, at this time of year college basketball fans dabble in “Bracketology,” trying to predict how their massive 65-team bracket will take shape in March.

Those of the puck persuasion have fewer teams to worry about, but that makes it no less interesting, especially given the change from last year’s two-regional, 12-team format to this season’s 16-team tournament spread over four regions.

The increased number of at-large bids (from seven to 10) could give the Crimson a way into the tournament if it is not able to win the ECAC tournament.

An at-large bid, though, is far from a sure thing at this point. Harvard is currently tied with Michigan State at No. 16 in the Pairwise Rankings, usually a direct prognosticator of the NCAA tournament field.

And because of automatic bids to the league champions of the CHA and MAAC—leagues whose teams do not typically challenge for at-large berths—the Crimson would have to move up to at least No. 14 to make the tournament as an at-large selection.

Harvard would need to climb even higher if it wanted to acquire insurance against underdogs in other leagues stealing conference championships and the automatic bids that go along with them. The Crimson was one of those “bracket-breakers” last season, when it upset Cornell to win the ECAC title and bumped Alaska-Fairbanks from the tournament field.

Projecting the Field

Although the tournament doesn’t begin for more than a month, it seems relatively clear as to where a few teams may be headed simply because of where the regional tournaments are located.

Because of historical precedent and an NCAA rule, any teams hosting regional tournaments that make the field must be placed at their respective home tournaments. And the host schools at each of the four regional tournaments have excellent chances of making the NCAAs: Minnesota (tied for 6th in the Pairwise), Boston University (tied-6th), Michigan (12th), and Providence (tied-13th).

So where would Harvard go if it makes it?

Well, the top four teams in the nation will be the No. 1 seeds and are assured of being placed as close to home as possible, with the highest-rated of the No. 1 seeds getting first priority.

There’s a good chance that Cornell could be a No. 1 seed, which could impact where the Crimson would go because, in a policy reaffirmed by a report earlier this month, the NCAA selection committee tries to avoid first-round games between conference opponents.

So, if Cornell is a top seed in Worcester, Harvard won’t be there with it.

Because of the four-regional format, the committee will have an easier time determining seeds. It has said in a report that it will simply rank the teams, No. 1 through No. 16, and split that up into four groups. The top four will be No. 1 seeds, the next four will be No. 2 seeds, and so on.

In all likelihood, Harvard would be a No. 4 seed if it made the tournament, meaning it would face a difficult task in the first round: a No. 1 seed playing, in theory, relatively close to home.

If the tournament began today, the No. 1 seeds would be Colorado College, Maine, Cornell and New Hampshire, in decreasing order. That would put CC in Minneapolis, Maine in Providence, Cornell in Worcester, and New Hampshire in Ann Arbor, Mich.

Harvard, if it was in the tournament, would most likely be looking at opening up with Maine in a rematch of last season’s NCAA first round game.

Last season, the teams at the West Regional were, on the whole, stronger than those in the East, largely because the surprising Crimson and MAAC representative Quinnipiac were in Worcester due to regionalization.

This year, though, five of the top eight teams in the PWR are from the East. But all of that, of course, is subject to change—along with Harvard’s chances of making the tournament-—depending upon how the Crimson and other contending teams fare in the coming weeks.

—Staff writer Jon P. Morosi can be reached at morosi@fas.harvard.edu.