MARCH TO THE SEA: Chic pick Boston can’t hang with Oakland’s experience

The Oakland Athletics have less talent than the Boston Red Sox. No one can deny that. The A’s have a $49 million payroll. The Red Sox spend over twice that much on their players. And since Theo Epstein isn’t a bumbling idiot, the Sox are about twice as good as Oakland.

Sox fans are uttering their dreaded favorite slogan—“this is the year!”—now that Pedro is healthy, Manny and Nomar are in the middle of the lineup, David Ortiz and Bill Mueller are MVP candidates and Byung-Hyun Kim is closing.

Well, they’re right about one thing. This is the year—the year Oakland finally snaps its first-round playoff losing streak.

For the past three seasons, Oakland has been the chic pick of baseball experts around the nation. The majority of ESPN analysts last season predicted the A’s to win the World Series. A win over the Twins in the first round last year was guaranteed. And for the past three years, Oakland has been sent packing after round one.

The experts said, “pitching wins championships.” They saw Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. They saw three wins in a row. They remembered how the A’s almost defeated the vaunted Yankees despite having a payroll nearly $100 million lower than New York. They saw a weak hitting Twins team. They thought, “this is the year.”

And what happened? Hudson was hit hard in both of his starting outings. Ted Lilly was horrendous. Billy Koch gave up three runs in the ninth inning in Game Five’s heartbreaking 5-4 defeat at home.

Well, I’ve got a news flash for you, Walter Cronkite (or, Brenda Lee). This year, Boston’s the hot selection to win it all. The curse will be broken! There’ll be celebrations in the streets for weeks and months!

Or maybe…maybe the chic pick is actually the weak pick. (Or, at least, that joke was weak).

Maybe Hudson’s finally found a team he can dominate in the playoffs. Last season, the A’s ace was southpaw Barry Zito. Yet, he only pitched once in Oakland’s five game series against a Minnesota team stacked with lefties. This year, the A’s will make sure their best have two chances to pitch. Hudson’s been phenomenal all year long. And in his one performance against Boston, he threw a nine-inning, two-hit, one-walk shutout.

Zito is next. There’s been a lot of talk about how much Barry has struggled this season after his Cy Young performance in 2002. But his numbers are still quite good—3.30 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. And Zito’s best month of the year, despite his last outing of the season in a meaningless game against Seattle, was September.

Who will pitch third for Oakland? No Mark Mulder?! This team has no chance! But stop! It’s Ted Lilly to the rescue! He’s only been the best pitcher in the American League (besides Pedro) in his past five starts. Lilly’s month of September? 2.05 ERA and four wins. Talk about stepping up for Mulder.

Top this staff off with Ricardo Rincon, Chad Bradford and Keith Foulke, and you’ve got an underrated bullpen that may have the goods to defeat a Red Sox lineup that posted record-setting offensive numbers this season. Just please, no Jim Mecir. If this guy gets into a game, the A’s have given up. He’s a home run waiting to happen.

It’s certainly possible that no matter how good the A’s pitching is, they’ll still lose due to an inability to score off of Pedro, Wakefield and Lowe. Pedro is usually deadly against Oakland’s cast of weak hitters, including Mark Ellis, Ramon Hernandez, Scott Hatteberg, and Jermaine “mendoza line” Dye. Wakefield has pitched well and Lowe is usually great in Fenway. It’s possible that the A’s will lose three games 2-1 (or, if Mecir pitches for the A’s, 11-1).

Or maybe….

Jose Guillen is fully healthy and ready to explode. Maybe Dye has finally recovered from his leg injury and can contribute. Maybe Erubiel Durazo will continue his hot September hitting streak and provide Oakland with a needed speak against Wakefield and Lowe.

One thing’s for sure: the A’s are sick and tired of losing in the first round. They’ve got playoff experience and this year, unlike previous seasons, everyone’s counting them out.

The A’s have home field advantage and had the best at-home record in the Majors this season. They have two lefties starting against a Sox lineup that is filled with lefties (Johnny Damon, Ortiz, Todd Walker, Trot Nixon). Nixon will not be 100 percent throughout the series, regardless. Jason Varitek has a career average of under .235 against Oakland. Mueller hits much better against righties than lefties. Nomar has been terrible on the road this season (.286 OBP).

The A’s may not be as talented. They may not have the money. They might not be the “chosen” ones this season.

But maybe that’s why the A’s will finally advance to the second round of the playoffs in 2003.

—Staff writer Alex M. Sherman can be reached at sherman@fas.harvard.edu.