Expert Says Republicans Face New Challenges as Majority Party

After gaining control of both Houses of Congress this week, the Republican Party now faces greater pressure to make progress on issues such as health care, tax reform and social security, domestic policy expert Stuart M. Butler told an Institute of Politics (IOP) discussion group last night.

“Now the pressure is going to be that they are going to have to deliver,” said Butler, a fellow at the IOP and vice president of Domestic and Economic Policy at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C. “The American public is not forgiving.”

The most immediate change will be the release of legislation “bottled up” in committee by Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) and the Democratic leadership, he told the dozen attendees.

“The critical thing with change in control is in terms of the calender and the agenda,” Butler said. “The change in likely voting patterns is very small. There’s not going to be a big ideological change.”

Butler likened the rare fact that the party of a sitting president gained contested seats and took control of the Senate to the beginning of a successful long-term presidential run—like the Reagan administration in 1984.

“This is a unique situation, it’s going to be like a presidential general election with the momentum going forward,” he said. “[Bush’s] success makes the period now very different than we would expect after a midterm election.”

The constituent support for his party will give Bush the mandate to push his agenda in the honeymoon period in the next few months, Butler said.

“It’s going to be very hard to resist Bush’s proposals early on,” he said. “Also, Bush and the Republican leadership don’t feel they have only a two-year timetable, they feel they have long-term support.”

Butler also discussed prospects for specific legislative issues. Commenting on health care, one of his personal areas of specialization, he characterized finding a way to incorporate drug packages into Medicare as one of the most prominent issues of the upcoming session.

“The average American elderly person wants to see prescription drugs as part of Medicare, but if you say ok, let’s just add it, than you’re ignoring the projections, Butler said. “If you look 10, 15 years ahead, you see the problem of long-term entitlement.”

“The battle will be to craft a drug package within a reform package,” he said.

In fact, despite the ideological roots of the party, instituting the Republican legislative agenda isn’t likely to keep spending low, he said.

“In principle, they want to hold down spending, but there’s little incentive to follow through with the current leadership,” he said.

Perhaps one of the more interesting aspects of this week’s elections is how the Republican gains in close races will lead to a gradual liberalization of the congressional Democrats, Butler said.

“When Republicans made gains, especially in the South, it was at the cost of conservative Democrats,” he said. “The leftward shift has been a slow pattern over the last two or three elections.”