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On Tuesday night, President George W. Bush presented his legislative agenda to Congress in a speech resembling a State of the Union Address. Surprisingly, he spoke with great stylistic flair--even including jokes alluding to his unpopularity in the Congress. However, despite his confidence and composure, the tax plan he presented as the cornerstone of his agenda is not fiscally responsible.
The initial flaw in the president's plan is that it assumes the budgetary surplus will be as large as forecasted. Because all predicted surpluses are only estimates, if the president passes his massive retroactive tax cut now, it is possible that the surplus will not materialize and Congress will be forced to take action--either by raising taxes or by cutting necessary programs to balance future budgets. The president's plan does not offer any flexibility or any workable plan if the surplus is other than projected.
But even if passed, will this extremely large tax cut jumpstart the economy? History resoundingly says no. As Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) said in the Democratic response to the address, Republican leaders asserted to a Democratic Congress that the 1981 tax cut would "trickle down" and improve the economy. But these cuts failed to help most Americans. Deficit spending increased and the national debt increased by the highest percentage ever. We must not make that mistake again.
Maybe the plan is not necessary for the economy, but for the American people. So, who exactly does this $1.6 trillion tax cut benefit? Sure, the tax cut benefits all Americans a little bit, but it disproportionately helps the wealthy. The amount saved by the wealthiest one percent of Americans, those earning over $900,000 a year, constitutes 43 percent of the total tax cut. Instead of spending most of this tax cut on the affluent, we need to help those Americans who need tax relief the most--working-class families.
Not that any tax cut would be detrimental: a moderate tax cut would still allow Congress to strengthen Medicare and Social Security while also committing to debt reduction. The problem with the president's tax cut is that it is so large that there will not be enough money left to fund necessary programs for the American people. In short, the president's numbers just don't add up.
The president's tax proposal is not right for America. President Bush's address may have sounded great, but the substance was lacking. If this excessive tax cut is enacted, Congress will neither be helping the faltering economy nor needy Americans. As Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-Mo.) put it, if it's too good to be true, it probably is.
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