The Fall of the Dove

Ariel Sharon, a military general and seasoned political veteran whom many had written off in Israeli politics because of his advancing age and checkered past, will soon be prime minister of Israel. Last Tuesday's election sported the largest margin of victory, albeit with the lowest turnout, of any election in Israel's history. Indeed, it seems that the Israeli public, weary of rioting Palestinians and rejected offers of peace, has given the signal to put a hold on a peace process that seemed just a few months ago to be closer than ever to settling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Although Sharon professes to seek "peace with security," it is unlikely that the terms of peace he has in mind--full Israeli sovereignty over East Jerusalem, retention of most Jewish settlements, and control over the strategic Jordan Valley--will be acceptable to many Palestinians. Palestinians also charge that Sharon prompted the latest uprising by his heavily-guarded September visit to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Whether or not the responsibility for the recent violence lies with Sharon, the distrust he has gained in the Arab world will make any rapprochement with Palestinians or neighboring Arab nations difficult.

It is possible that the administration of Sharon will serve as a cooling-off period for both sides. Although his own Likud party holds relatively few seats in the fractured Knesset--the Israeli Parliament--Sharon is more likely to be able to restrain the virulent right-wing of Israeli politics than his defeated Labor-party adversary Ehud Barak. Given the difficulty of putting together a governing coalition, Sharon's government, like Barak, may be short-lived.

In light of the difficulties now facing the Mideast peace process, active U.S. involvement to keep both sides negotiating is as important as ever. We worry that President George W. Bush, whose statements on the peace process during the campaign were anything but detailed, will not be as committed to the negotiations as was President Clinton. If the U.S. acts as an honest broker between the two sides, it might be able to establish a necessary degree of trust between Sharon and the Palestinians.

The last few months have seen a major setback to the peace process, culminating in Sharon's election. It will take a strong American presence to help the two sides back onto the right track.