The Long View: Bush, Gore Set Sights on November

And then there were two.

With the landslide Super Tuesday victories of Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore '69, the question of who will be the Republican and Democratic Presidential nominees has been all but answered.

Former Sen. Bill Bradley, swept in Super Tuesday primaries, is already talking about his campaign in the past tense and is expected to drop out in the next few days.

Although Ariz. Sen. John S. McCain is far from officially out of the running, his prospects only worsen from here. The two biggest primaries next week are in Texas and Florida--and both states are governed by men named Bush.

Thus with the primary contests effectively over, the focus of frontrunners Bush and Gore shifts dramatically. Rather than continuing to appeal primarily to party voters, each candidate will begin to position himself for the general electorate.

Bill White, director of the ARCO Forum at the Institute of Politics, said the general election will hinge not upon the votes of those firmly entrenched with either party, but on the 20 percent of Americans who comprise the "swing vote" and have traditionally determined the eventual winner.

Gore, however, has a head start.

"Bush and Gore are going to hustle to move to the center," White said. "Because of McCain running to the left of Bush, George Bush has more to do to work to get to the center."

With his plans for universal health coverage and "big ideas," Bill Bradley appealed most to unreformed liberals. But Gore focused his efforts on attacking Bradley's proposals as too risky, and as portraying himself as the safe Democratic alternative for centrist voters.

McCain, on the other hand, had tremendous moderate and Democratic appeal. And while McCain's cross-party drawing power served him well in early primaries, Bush was able to wait out the McCain tide by appealing to party-line Republicans and the religious right.

But Bush's pandering to the Republican right is undoubtedly giving Gore fodder for the general election, and Bush's amazing cash reserves have been drawn down during his primary battles. And Gore has remained in the center while Bush is tilting rightward.

Life After Death?

John McCain may have failed to win the Republican nomination, but his widespread popularity means that he will still have an impact on the general election.

McCain may decide to cash in on his popularity with moderates and join the Reform Party.

"[McCain's] staff is interested in going to a third party," White said.

If he does declare, McCain has enough support to be eligible to participate in all presidential debates, White said.

Although White said current Reform Party rules would make it virtually impossible for McCain to get his name on the party ballot, the troubled party might decide to alter its rules to accommodate the Arizona senator.

Even if the Reform Party does welcome McCain, the senator faces other logistical problems if he wishes to switch parties. He would have to drop out of the Republican Party and thus lose his spot as chair of the Senate Commerce Committee.

"The practical side of that is that it's very unlikely that McCain could get on the ballot," White said.

Another theory has McCain becoming Bush's running mate. This arrangement would help solve Bush's perceived alienation from moderates and independents.

Presidential nominees have chosen their primary opponents as running mates before. In 1980, Ronald Reagan selected George H.W. Bush after a contested primary season. John F. Kennedy '40 chose primary opponent Lyndon B. Johnson in 1960. Both nominees won their general elections.

The chances of Bush and McCain running together are currently slim, however, simply because the two have spent months attacking each other and are not likely to reconcile their differences by the summer.

"They'll be a lot of Republican operatives that would want [McCain] on the ticket," White said. "But the two are not likely compatible enough."

Thus far, McCain said he has no plans to run with Bush.

Even if McCain decides to drop out of the presidential race entirely, he can still help the Republican Party by endorsing Bush.

On the other hand, silence from McCain or--worse yet--continued criticism of Bush and the Christian right might paralyze Bush's attempt to win moderate votes.

Recently, Bush told Fox News that he would hope to hear from the McCain campaign and hopes the pair can put all animosity behind them.

Whether McCain is ready to do this is uncertain.

Toughening Up

Contested presidential primaries are not all bad for the eventual winner. Most political pundits believe that facing a challenge in the primary may toughen a candidate and his campaign, making him more successful in the general election.

Stephen Walt, Kirkpatrick Professor of International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government, said that an easy primary victory might actually hurt a candidate's chances in November.

"If you have a real easy time of it, your campaign machinery may not be ready for the real campaign," he said.

While Bush was clearly challenged by McCain, Bradley's impact on Gore is less clear.

After winning narrowly in New Hampshire, Gore has coasted for the last few weeks. Meanwhile, Bradley's support consistently dwindled, and Bradley himself has backed off on his attacks, perhaps realizing that his chances for winning the nomination were virtually nonexistent.

Although Gore has not been tested since early February, White says Bradley offered enough competition before the New Hampshire primary to sufficiently challenge Gore.

"Bradley definitely made Al Gore a better candidate," White said.

On the other hand, a primary that is too contentious might hurt the eventual nominee. In Bush's case, McCain's frequent attacks against him means he can clearly emerge from the Republican primaries battle-tested, but he may appear vulnerable as well.

"It's always a problem when a party is bitterly divided during the primary season," Walt said. "Whoever wins has accumulated so much baggage that they become a weaker candidate in the general election."

Above all, the negative campaigning between Bush and McCain likely helped Gore most. Gore enjoys the benefits of negative attacks against Bush without appearing as a negative campaigner.

The Next Quayle?

The next major step for Bush and Gore will be to choose running mates. Traditionally, running mates are chosen in order to shore up a candidate's weaknesses, thus broadening his appeal to those voters who might otherwise not support him.

Potential running mates from large states have an advantage, as they help candidates win their states' important electoral votes.

For this reason, Gore, solidly entrenched with moderate Democrats, might choose a more liberal running mate. Senators Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) and Bob Graham (D-Fla.) have been mentioned as top candidates, although both are not much more liberal than Gore. Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) would help bring the country's biggest electoral prize to Gore.

Bush faces a more interesting choice. Although he could stick with a solid conservative, Bush may decide to appeal to moderate voters and pick a pro-choice running mate. Popular state governors Tom Ridge '70 (R-Pa.) and Christine Todd Whitman (R-N.J.) both support abortion rights.

Whitman, along with running-mate possibility Elizabeth Dole, might win over women voters, who tend not to support the Republican Party.

Recently, Christian right leader Jerry Falwell said he would endorse Bush even if the candidate chose a pro-choice candidate.

Still, all speculations on the candidates' running mates are relatively premature. Few expected 1996 Republican nominee Bob Dole to pick Jack Kemp as his running mate. Even fewer thought President Clinton would pick fellow southerner Gore.

Too Early To Handicap

Although Gore's relatively easy ride through the primary season might make him appear to be ahead of the game now, it's far too early to even pick a favorite for the general election.

Bush won the support of women and minorities as governor of Texas, and he may repeat that feat nationally. If successful, Bush would not only find himself winning moderate voters, but he would gain some of the traditionally Democratic vote as well.

Additionally, McCain's attacks on the Republican establishment--particularly the Christian right--might compel the Republican Party to reform itself and go after a larger spectrum of voters.

"Many people thought that [McCain's attacks] was a message that the Republican Party needed to hear," Walt said. "I think he's been tremendously good for the Republican Party."

With Election Day still months away, the small advantages of today might become irrelevant come November.

"I've learned never to be confident of my forecasts," Walt said. "Michael Dukakis had a 17-point lead at one point, and we all know how that election turned out."