Stumbling Over the Granite

New Hampshire primary results should send sharp rebuke to party leadership

If there is a chink in the armor of Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore '69, last Tuesday's primary in New Hampshire may have been the blow that widened it. Bush and Gore, riding high on the backs of their party apparatuses and their victories in Iowa, came into the Granite State exuding the confidence of heirs apparent. Bush flaunted his legacy and name recognition, sharing the stage with George Sr. and Barbara; Gore played up his vice presidential status with his Secret Service entourage.

But by day's end, although the two weren't knocked off their horses completely, the results of the New Hampshire primary were more than enough to rattle their hold on the reins. Sen. John S. McCain (R-Ariz.) finished ahead of Bush with a solid 19 percentage point victory. Although New Hampshire has a particular affinity for insurgent candidates, McCain drew broad-based support from Independent and Republican voters alike. For Bush, who waltzed into New Hampshire expecting to win, the defeat signifies that he will need more than deep pockets and a famous name to secure the Republican nomination.

Former Sen. Bill Bradley drew an impressive 46 percent to Gore's 50 percent of the New Hampshire votes--a margin of less than 7,000 voters. Although Bradley was not Tuesday's victor, his performance is close enough to propel him into a competitive race with Gore for the Super Tuesday primaries on March 7.

Both the feisty McCain and frank Bradley have passionately committed to continue campaigning until the end. This will inject spirit into a traditionally uncompetitive and uninspiring primary process. A heated and close race will lead to a more informed and politically active citizenry, as illustrated by the particularly high voter turnout in New Hampshire.

Despite McCain's stellar performance and Bradley's strong showing, both candidates have bumpy roads ahead. New Hampshire is a small state that sends only 17 Republican and 22 Democratic delegates to the summer's conventions. McCain will have a more difficult time in the upcoming South Carolina primaries, where registered Republicans are traditionally more conservative. Furthermore, both McCain and Bradley will not be privy to the large segment of independent voters.

The dynamic of the primaries changes after New Hampshire. No longer will the candidates have the time to attend individual town meetings across a particular state. This will be difficult for Bradley, who prefers intimate face-to-face campaigning over staged press events. McCain will have to revise his strategy of dumping all his energies into one state after South Carolina.

But in the end, the lesson from New Hampshire is that the campaigns will be hard fought from start to finish. The Republican and Democratic party establishments should take note that their chosen knights are capable of stumbling.