Rising Tide Lifts Black Job Market, Study Says

Young black men with little education are finding increased success in today's job market, according to a study recently completed by Ascherman Professor of Economics Richard B. Freeman and economist William M. Rodgers III of the College of William and Mary.

The significance of the study, researchers say, is the surprising degree to which employment opportunities have improved the overall life chances of black inner-city residents, even those with prison records.

Freeman and Rodgers concluded that the men ages 16 to 24 in the 322 cities they studied are not only working and earning more, but also committing fewer crimes than they did a decade ago.

The study cites a 9 to 12 percent increase in jobs for less-educated young black men in labor markets across the country--and strongly suggests that perpetual joblessness, crime and single-parent families correspond with a lack of work opportunities, not a "culture of poverty."

According to the study, crime rates

have fallen more in metropolitan areas where job prospects have most improved.

The study also suggests that the most successful way to improve the lot of the nation's poor lies in economic prosperity for the country as a whole, Freeman said.

This may seem obvious, Freeman adds, but the high growth of the 1980s--combined with high unemployment for the unskilled--made economists wonder whether the advantages of the present economic boom would necessarily spread to every socioeconomic group.

"Had one done this study in the 1950s, '60s or '70s, no one would have been surprised," Freeman said. "But in the '80s, we had economic expansion, [yet] it seemed to leave behind the less educated people."

The current decade's economic success is accompanied by a sharp decrease in national unemployment rates, and uneducated black youth are being folded into the labor market as a result.

Further, employment rates for young black men are rising as the expansion rates for affirmative action and job-training programs are falling.

"We have shown we can do some things for our most disadvantaged through economic boom," Freeman said. "The booming market can do more than all the government programs."

While the increase in employment prospects marks a substantial improvement over 10 years ago, the study shows that the unemployment rate for young black men of all education levels stands at 17 percent, twice the level of unemployment among young white men.

Nevertheless, Geyser University Professor William Julius Wilson noted that the recent study directly contradicts the controversial work of conservative social scientist Charles Murray, author of Losing Ground and The Bell Curve. Murray suggested that unemployment rates among blacks have been high because of laziness and broken values.

Increasing employment and decreased crime in the wake of the economic boom counter Murray's assertions.

Wilson said the only real path for the success of the inner-city poor is a sustained tight labor market that includes them.

Freeman and Wilson both said they predict that if the national economy takes a turn for the worse, employment rates for low-skilled workers will go with it.

"If we go into a recession, that could be real trouble," Freeman said.

He added that an economic downturn would bring the subjects of his study back to welfare "real quickly." Both Freeman and Wilson said they are worried that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, jobless rates could rise.

"I just wish that the Fed pays the same attention to ordinary working people as they do to the powerful folks on Wall Street," Wilson said.

--Caitlin E. Anderson, M. Douglas O'Malley and James Y. Stern contributed to the reporting of this story.

have fallen more in metropolitan areas where job prospects have most improved.

The study also suggests that the most successful way to improve the lot of the nation's poor lies in economic prosperity for the country as a whole, Freeman said.

This may seem obvious, Freeman adds, but the high growth of the 1980s--combined with high unemployment for the unskilled--made economists wonder whether the advantages of the present economic boom would necessarily spread to every socioeconomic group.

"Had one done this study in the 1950s, '60s or '70s, no one would have been surprised," Freeman said. "But in the '80s, we had economic expansion, [yet] it seemed to leave behind the less educated people."

The current decade's economic success is accompanied by a sharp decrease in national unemployment rates, and uneducated black youth are being folded into the labor market as a result.

Further, employment rates for young black men are rising as the expansion rates for affirmative action and job-training programs are falling.

"We have shown we can do some things for our most disadvantaged through economic boom," Freeman said. "The booming market can do more than all the government programs."

While the increase in employment prospects marks a substantial improvement over 10 years ago, the study shows that the unemployment rate for young black men of all education levels stands at 17 percent, twice the level of unemployment among young white men.

Nevertheless, Geyser University Professor William Julius Wilson noted that the recent study directly contradicts the controversial work of conservative social scientist Charles Murray, author of Losing Ground and The Bell Curve. Murray suggested that unemployment rates among blacks have been high because of laziness and broken values.

Increasing employment and decreased crime in the wake of the economic boom counter Murray's assertions.

Wilson said the only real path for the success of the inner-city poor is a sustained tight labor market that includes them.

Freeman and Wilson both said they predict that if the national economy takes a turn for the worse, employment rates for low-skilled workers will go with it.

"If we go into a recession, that could be real trouble," Freeman said.

He added that an economic downturn would bring the subjects of his study back to welfare "real quickly." Both Freeman and Wilson said they are worried that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, jobless rates could rise.

"I just wish that the Fed pays the same attention to ordinary working people as they do to the powerful folks on Wall Street," Wilson said.

--Caitlin E. Anderson, M. Douglas O'Malley and James Y. Stern contributed to the reporting of this story.