Parting Shot

Four days ago The Crimson marked its 125th anniversary. It was on Jan. 24, 1873, that 10 Harvard students distributed the first issue of The Magenta--a newspaper that would undergo more than just several name changes, and evolve over the years into the paper you are holding today.

If the first Crimson president, Henry A. Clark, Class of 1874, were to see this morning's edition, one could only imagine his surprise at how much things have changed. With photos, longer stories, a weekly magazine and even TV listings, the paper is a vastly different product from The Magenta.

Clark would be pleasantly surprised to know that the newspaper he and his nine friends founded would later turn into an organization of more than 250 undergraduates.

Even over the last 25 years, the paper and the organization have dramatically changed. Today's Crimson is much more geared toward campus issues than was the politically charged paper of a quarter century ago. Members of The Crimson are much more diverse in terms of gender, ethnicity and socio-economic status. Typewriters, hot wax and lead slugs have given way to computers, QuarkXPress and an imagesetter.

Despite all these changes, it is remarkable at how much has also stayed the same. The Crimson is still a newspaper, printed on newsprint and hand delivered to its subscribers. People read a 1998 Crimson much in the same way they read an 1873 Magenta. With the advent of television and radio, the newspaper still remains the preeminent way to distribute Harvard news.

But today, even those assumptions have been challenged. With the rising popularity of the Internet over the last few years, many business analysts are predicting the end of newspapers, calling the industry a waste of paper. Newspapers have panicked, investing money to quickly become a presence on the Web.

Nevertheless, newspaper sales and advertising have yet to decline. Even with the entire content of most metro dailies being available online, people are still shelling out money on a daily basis to get a physical paper. Still, some argue that it is just a matter of time before a critical mass gets comfortable enough with the Internet that newspapers become a relic of the past.

How will the newspaper of the future be different from the newspaper of today? On an event as historic as The Crimson's 125th anniversary, and at such a turning point in the history of communications, it is an ideal time to make predictions about the next 25 years of both The Crimson and the newspaper industry as a whole. Here are a personal few:

1. The Harvard Crimson, Inc., will exist in 25 years. As will most other newspaper organizations that exist now. There will be a Boston Globe, a New York Times, a Wall Street Journal. Technology cannot replace the value that comes from the experience and resources found in newsrooms. While the Internet will make fact gathering easier, it will not be able to replace the organizations that specialize in finding information and writing about it.

2. Paper editions of newspapers will also exist in 25 years. Despite its cost, people like the portability of paper; they enjoy reading their morning edition while eating breakfast and bringing it with them on their commute to work. Some predict that portable wireless gadgets that receive news feeds could act as competitive substitutes for newspapers, but portable radios and televisions have existed for years without hurting newspaper sales. Researchers in the MIT Media Lab were recently looking into the possibility of developing paper with ink that rearranges itself on the page upon receiving electronic signals--so, in essence, your paper newspaper could be updating itself with the latest news throughout the day. That would be interesting.

3. Newspapers will be more personalized. The average reader of a newspaper reads a fraction of all of the content contained in each edition. This translates to lots of wasted paper. Currently paper costs are low and personalization costs are high so this waste can exist. But as the technology develops, newspapers will be able to print different editions that cater to individual tastes. This trend has already begun as newspapers have developed regional editions with varying content. On a more personal scale, the Minnesota Star Tribune allows subscribers to have some choice as to what sections of their paper they receive. This type of personal choice is appreciated by the customer and lowers paper costs for the newspaper company.

4. As personalization of information becomes more important, articles from small, local news organizations like The Crimson will appear in larger publications. Large news organizations will want to offer their customers the ability to receive content from small newsrooms across the nation. For example, if you are a Harvard graduate living in New York, you might want your copy of the New York Times to include Harvard sports information. It would be too costly for the Times to gather all this content itself and thus will rely on purchasing the rights to republish articles from various small sources. This trend has already begun with services like University Wire that allow college newspapers to reprint each other's top stories that are distributed over the Internet.

5. Newspapers will shrink in size. Over the past 125 years, newspapers have grown. Now they will begin to shrink. The newspaper of 25 years from now will be smaller, but will contain more relevant information for the reader. In addition, articles will be shorter and contain plugs for ways to find out more information about the subject through the Internet.

6. Methods of paper distribution will change. With increased personalization of newspapers, distribution will become more costly. Newsprint papers will probably still exist and individual copies will still be sold at central locations. However, personalized newspapers sent electronically to households and printed within the home will develop. Startup services like InfoBeat and Point-Cast will work with and compete with major-metro dailies to provide such services.

Many will disagree with my forecast, but I offer it because predictions are always interesting in retrospect, whether right or wrong. Upon the celebration of the 150th anniversary of The Crimson, the editors of the future will have something to look back upon and analyze--six predictions that will later be deemed stupid, ironic or, hopefully, right on target.

Joshua J. Schanker '98, a resident of Adams House, was president of The Crimson in 1997.