AND THE Winner Is...

I've always been afraid to wonder why Oscar is holding a sword where his genitals are supposed to be. This year, though, his physiology is kind of a moot point. Whatever Oscar's anatomical structure, the little fella has finally shown some balls.

The presence of independent films has finally reached the crescendo we have anticipated throughout the 90s. Rather than a single My Left Foot or The Crying Game to represent the Little Film, this year's oddball is Jerry Maguire, the only Hollywood project to earn a slot in the Picture race. The somnambulists who voted in featherweight tripe like Scent of a Woman and Field of Dreams are finally hibernating where they belong. As Shakespeare once apostrophized, "Studios, studios, where art thou, studios?"

Not only is the standard of quality throughout the Oscar derby remarkably high--and the list of glaring omissions fairly short--but the prevalence of unknown artists over marquee stars in the acting races is another fresh and exciting change. I can't wait to hear the valiant efforts of the forecourt announcer on the ABC telecast, doing her best with lines like, "Glamorous and beautiful, she's... Brenda Blethyn! And look, there's Armin Mueller-Stah!"

Offbeat nominations, however, do not necessitate the same maverick spirit in the final balloting. My suspicion is that Hollywood is still far more predictable than one might think. The nominations themselves, however hip, bear much in common with Old Academy tradition, and if you don't think lifetime achievement, physical affliction, and onscreen heroics can still push a nominee to the podium, you don't know your Oscars.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Joan Allen, The Crucible; Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces; Juliette Binoche, The English Patient; Barbara Hershey, The Portrait of a Lady; Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Secrets & Lies

This category is a good place to start, in part because it shows how far the Academy has come. In previous years, Mary Tyler Moore would have cinched a nomination just for skewering her sunny image and sporting a Wonderbra in three scenes of Flirting With Disaster. In the same vein, lovable Marion Ross of Happy Days couldn't have missed for wearing age make-up and dying suddenly in The Evening Star. No dice, ladies. Instead, this year's voters went for Jean-Baptiste, an unknown first-timer in a tricky, understated ensemble turn. Allen and Hershey have higher profiles, but Hollywood and the public spurned their films; regardless, their indelible performances were deservedly remembered.

Who Will Win: Ignore everything I just said. This is still Hollywood. No one would dare vote against Lauren Bacall, whose smart, glorious career has yielded no prior nominations, and whose dragon-mom character in Mirror would not take kindly to rejection. Bacall has won the Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe Awards, and she's sure to give a helluva speech.

Who Deserves It: Hershey, whose canon of work has been at least as interesting as Bacall's, and never so shattering as her scheming, wounded Madame Merle in Portrait.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Cuba Gooding Jr., Jerry Maguire; William H. Macy, Fargo; Armin Mueller-Stahl, Shine; Edward Norton, Primal Fear; James Woods, Ghosts of Mississippi

First, scratch off James Woods: his is the only film in all the categories I haven't seen, but his latex-heavy scenery chewing in the flop movie's preview is way too over-the-top, even for Oscar. Mueller-Stahl, a prickly character actor who deserves more recognition, has too little to do as the terrorizing father in Shine, especially considering that he played the same character in Music Box and The House of the Spirits. That means a head-to-head between Gooding, whose bebop-ebonic hijinks were a riot in Maguire, and Norton, whose hat trick in Fear, The People vs. Larry Flynt and Woody Allen's Everyone Says I Love You, means he's sure to have a brilliant career.

Who Will Win: Gooding. Overpaid Hollywood loves that a character can be charming, talented, outspoken, in love...and still command an $11 million contract.

Who Deserves It: Macy's a dark horse if Fargo goes far; whatever the outcome, his shifty, stuttering car salesman was the subtlest, the saddest, and the funniest of this bunch.

Best Actress

Nominees: Brenda Blethyn, Secrets & Lies; Diane Keaton, Marvin's Room; Frances McDormand, Fargo; Kristin Scott Thomas, The English Patient; Emily Watson, Breaking the Waves.

An embarassment of riches, even without the deserving work of Courtney Love's lynx in Larry Flynt and Nicole "What-do-I-have-to-do-to-get-on-this-show?" Kidman in The Portrait of a Lady. First out is probably Scott Thomas, a radiant screen presence we all should be watching, but whose part verges on the supporting, and whose chances to make out with Ralph Fiennes are probably reward enough. Keaton has the advantage of exposure in the hit First Wives Club, but Marvin's Room has been seen by so few people that her chances are slim. Watson was the critics' darling of the year, but it's hard to imagine, say, Lauren Bacall voting for a character who gives hand jobs to strangers on a bus. That leaves Cannes and Golden Globe winner Blethyn, and Screen Actors Guild champ McDormand, both in Best Picture nominees, both highly deserving.

Who Will Win: McDormand plays the more likable character, and her work in Lone Star and Primal Fear cemented a solid year. Still, don't count Blethyn out.

Who Deserves It: McDormand, by golly. She was real funny. Ohh, yahh.

Best Actor

Nominees: Tom Cruise, Jerry Maguire; Ralph Fiennes, The English Patient; Woody Harrelson, The People vs. Larry Flynt; Geoffrey Rush, Shine; Billy Bob Thornton, Sling Blade.

Again, two names can be shelved quickly. Harrelson is still to be considered a TV actor, and even supporters of his controversial film are more likely to rally around its director than its star. As for Fiennes, The English Patient has enough chances in other categories that it doesn't need a win here. Cruise's nomination is richly deserved, but I suspect that after two $100 million hits in a year (continuing a streak of five), a Golden Globe and a $20 million salary, Hollywood will decide he's been rewarded enough.

Who Will Win: One of the dueling autistics. Rush has swept the pre-Oscar awards, but Sling Blade is riding a big wave of support, especially among actors, who comprise by far the largest voting bloc. I'll give Thornton a razor's edge lead: his picture has the most indie-credibility and the Academy prefers to buy American.

Who Deserves It: Cruise deserves more credit than anyone gives him, but I still prefer Fiennes, who disappears so fully into two versions of the same character that we forget it's a single performance.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Fargo; Jerry Maguire; Lone Star; Secrets & Lies; Shine.

Eliminate both Secrets & Lies, inexplicably nominated since it was shot without a script, and Shine, since biography seldom wins awards for originality. After that it's a toss-up. Fargo got more recognition for its visuals and its characters than for its script, but that's where it all started. Jerry Maguire dared not only to turn a star vehicle into an actual character piece but also to create several likable, believable men and women (and it gave America "Show me the money!") John Sayles's Lone Star was overlooked in every other category, but its dense novelistic structure makes it the most literate of the bunch.

Who Will Win: With Globe winner Larry Flynt mysteriously absent, all three leaders are headed for a photo finish. Lone Star is the favorite among screenwriters, but Fargo has been racking up the pre-show awards--and weird speech patterns did the trick for Pulp Fiction.

Who Deserves It: Sayles is such a good writer that one wonders if he hasn't chosen the wrong medium.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: The Crucible; The English Patient; Hamlet; Sling Blade; Trainspotting.

As with Secrets & Lies, I have no idea what Hamlet is doing here, since Kenneth Branagh preened so much over not altering Shakespeare's text. Arthur Miller is a hard name to ignore, but the Academy and the public have found it in them to ignore The Crucible altogether. Not enough people understood the accents in Trainspotting to know if the script was any good. That leaves The English Patient and Sling Blade, both of which created complex characters and entire communities, and both of which have key support from the massive actors' branch.

Who Will Win: As with last year's Sense and Sensibility, Minghella's English Patient seems to be losing some momentum elsewhere, but is pretty unstoppable here.

Who Deserves It: Quibble as you will with what Minghella cut. I dare you to read the book and try a version half as good as his.

Best Director

Nominees: Joel Coen, Fargo; Milos Forman, The People vs. Larry Flynt; Scott Hicks, Shine; Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies; Anthony Minghella, The English Patient.

The blurriest race in the derby with pluses and minuses on every side. Minghella and Hicks are the new kids on the block, and an unknown hasn't won since James L. Brooks for 1983s Terms of Endearment. Still, their films seem to be leading the Picture race, and Picture-Director consistency has been broken only four times in the last forty years. Globe-winner Forman's film is the least popular with the Academy, but his career has been the longest and most-celebrated, including two prior wins. Leigh will be a favorite among the actors, who love his improvisational filming style. Coen, meanwhile, has an avid fan base, and he earned the Director's prize at Cannes (even though his film lost to Leigh's). Confused yet?

Who Will Win: Everyone but Hicks has a shot. The Director's Guild Award bodes well for The English Patient: still, don't count out Coen, who's better-known in Hollywood and works with a more personal stamp.

Who Deserves It: Minghella is at least at talented as David Lean, but no one balanced horror, comedy, violence, and pathos as skillfully as Coen did.

Best Picture

Nominees: The English Patient, Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets Lies and Shine.

Again, a tight race. Eighty percent of the last 20 winners have been the films with the most nominations in their year. That logic would favor The English Patient, with its potent combination of literate filmmaking, pretty pictures and even prettier stars. Secrets Lies and Fargo are not everyone's cup of tea, but those who like them love them. Jerry Maguire would normally be D.O.A. without a director nod, but don't underestimate the Marisa Tomei factor: studio output in a field of itchy new-wavism can pull off big surprises. Shine is easily the least accomplished film, but so were Forrest Gump and Rain Man. Oscar voters like their sappy, stunted geniuses wherever they can get them. Tough call.

Who Will Win: Realistically, Secrets Lies lost the minute an actress changed her tampon onscreen. Likewise, Fargo will never survive its woodchipper finale. Even though Patient once seemed poised to dominate (and it won the Golden Globe), I'm seeing a tough three-way fight with Shine and Jerry Maguire. Still, with nominations in the most categories, Patient seems to have the broadest-based support in the homestretch.

Who Deserves It: Anyone who wrote off Fargo as a mean-spirited riff on Midwestern accents missed the human heart of a totally original film whose every scene, shot, and performance struck the right, eccentric note

Who Will Win: Everyone but Hicks has a shot. The Director's Guild Award bodes well for The English Patient: still, don't count out Coen, who's better-known in Hollywood and works with a more personal stamp.

Who Deserves It: Minghella is at least at talented as David Lean, but no one balanced horror, comedy, violence, and pathos as skillfully as Coen did.

Best Picture

Nominees: The English Patient, Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets Lies and Shine.

Again, a tight race. Eighty percent of the last 20 winners have been the films with the most nominations in their year. That logic would favor The English Patient, with its potent combination of literate filmmaking, pretty pictures and even prettier stars. Secrets Lies and Fargo are not everyone's cup of tea, but those who like them love them. Jerry Maguire would normally be D.O.A. without a director nod, but don't underestimate the Marisa Tomei factor: studio output in a field of itchy new-wavism can pull off big surprises. Shine is easily the least accomplished film, but so were Forrest Gump and Rain Man. Oscar voters like their sappy, stunted geniuses wherever they can get them. Tough call.

Who Will Win: Realistically, Secrets Lies lost the minute an actress changed her tampon onscreen. Likewise, Fargo will never survive its woodchipper finale. Even though Patient once seemed poised to dominate (and it won the Golden Globe), I'm seeing a tough three-way fight with Shine and Jerry Maguire. Still, with nominations in the most categories, Patient seems to have the broadest-based support in the homestretch.

Who Deserves It: Anyone who wrote off Fargo as a mean-spirited riff on Midwestern accents missed the human heart of a totally original film whose every scene, shot, and performance struck the right, eccentric note