Bay State Democrats Hope to Keep Bucking National Trend

The American Revolution may have started here in 1775, but the Gingrich Revolution completely missed Massachusetts in 1994.

In an election season of heavy Democratic losses at polls across the nation, the Bay State's congressional Democrats were spared the Gingrich guillotine and won easily in all of their respective elections.

But even in a state in which Democratic voters easily outnumber their Republican cohorts three-to-one, the Democratic party suffered humiliating defeats in last year's races for major state offices.

As the state gears up for next year's congressional elections, another senatorial race, and the presidential race, Massachusetts Democrats are confident in their party's stronghold but still wary of their Republican foes.

"We're going to need a grass-roots level campaign during the next 12 or 13 months, if we are going to be a viable party," says State Rep. Alvin E. Thompson (D-Cambridge). "We're going to have to work more on the grass-roots level, if we are going to get back what we lost."

Easy Victories

Thompson's remark is surprising considering the relative ease with which eight Democrats won their races for U.S. House seats and with which U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy '54-'56 won his sixth term in the Senate.

Kennedy, who faced the toughest race of his political career, easily dispatched his Republican opponent, W. Mitt Romney by a 58 to 41 percent tally.

In fact, only three incumbent Democratic U.S. Senators secured their seats by a wider margin than did Kennedy: U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), U.S. Sen. Paul S. Sarbanes (D-Md.), and U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Akaka (D-Hawaii).

And no Democratic incumbent from Massachusetts in the House of Representatives won by less than 23 percent. Of all the races in which a Democratic incumbent was running, U.S. Rep. Richard E. Neal of the state's second district had the closest race winning by a final tally of 59 percent to 36 percent.

Three congressional Democrats, U.S. Rep. John W. Olver of the first district, U.S. Rep. Barney Frank '61 of the fourth district and U.S. Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy II of the eight district, did not even face challenges in November.

"The Northeast has always been somewhat Democratic, it's a Democratic stalwart if there ever was," says Adam Sohn, deputy press secretary for the Democratic National Committee. "They had a strong congressional ticket up and down...it was an example of real congressional politics and these guys have delivered."

Former Cambridge mayor and Democratic state committee member Alice K. Wolf also attributes the Democratic success to the powers of incumbency.

"They were all very strong candidates in their districts," says Wolf. "They were very strong incumbents and thus they were hard to beat."

But some observers say that Massachusetts has already succumbed to the GOP revolution.

A Pre-Gingrich Revolution

In 1990, Republicans Gov. William F. Weld '66, Lt. Gov. A. Paul Cellucci and state Treasurer Joseph D. Malone '78, swept the top three state positions from Democrats.

"The state of Massachusetts had our revolt four years ago, in some respects this cleansing is something we went through in 1990 with the governor," says Paul Watanabe, professor of political science at UMass-Boston.

And in 1992, two Republicans, U.S. Reps. Peter I. Blute of the state's third district and Peter G. Torkildsen of the state's sixth district, ended the Democratic monopoly on the state's 10 member congressional delegation.

"Two years ago, the Democrats had a monopoly on our congressional delegation and the Republicans took over two seats, and that was in itself a Revolution," Wolf says.

But even with these recent Republicans successes on the state level, observers say the GOP must still overcome many obstacles if it is to permanently establish itself on the state's political scene.

"The Democratic Party is stronger here and the identification that people have with the Democratic Party is stronger here than it is in other places," says William B. Vernon, executive director of the Massachusetts State Republican Party.

"Republicans here have a higher mountain to climb in terms of voter registration and we also have a higher cultural hill to get over. For many years, it was culturally unacceptable to be a Republican in Massachusetts," Vernon adds. "I kept the fact that I was a Republican under wraps...I mean if I was at some social function in Cambridge, I would not say I was a Republican."

Although Vernon was happy with Weld's convincing win over Democratic State Rep. Mark Roosevelt '78 in November, he laments the fact that there is "no spokesman for the Republican Party here on national issues."

"There is nobody here on a regular basis who has a sufficient voice that can be heard...someone who can illustrate the differences that the Republican Party has with President Clinton," Vernon says. "You get that voice from a U.S. Senator and we have not had one here for twenty years."

Senate Race '96

Next year, Vernon and the state's Republican Party will get another shot at electing a Republican candidate to the U.S. Senate in the race against the Bay State's junior senator, John F. Kerrey.

"Kerrey is a strong candidate and he may have an easier time than Kennedy,because the voters here will see that Newt andCompany are just business as usual," Sohn said.

He added though, "No race is a throw-away andwe will be in there fighting."

But Wolf and other observers say they are notas confident as Sohn seems to be about Kerrey'schances next year.

"Senator Kerrey will put together a good race,but he does not have the emotional appeal thatSenator Kennedy has," Wolf said.

And Watanabe said that if Kerrey runs against"a well-funded articulate candidate," he couldfind himself fighting to hold onto his Senateposition.

When Kerrey last ran in 1990, Watanabe said, hefaced Jim Rappaport, "a third-rate candidate, whogave him a run for his money."

This has given some Massachusetts Republicans asmall glimmer of hope that they will be able toinstall one of their own in the United StatesSenate next November.

And many in the party, impressed with thecampaign Romney ran against Sen. Kennedy lastyear, say they are hoping he will challengeKerrey.

But Romney on election night in November wasnoncommittal about his plans for next year.

"I'm not opening the door, I'm not closing thedoor, I'm leaving it right where it is," he said.

Presidential Race '96

Next year kicks off another presidentialcampaign and with the Massachusetts primaryscheduled for next March, leaders of both stateparties say they are gearing up for what promisesto be another costly and rancorous political race.

Watanabe says that Clinton should not have ahard time winning in Massachusetts, if hisopponent is "of the quality of George Bush."

"Clinton may be a fair president at best, buthe is a hell of a candidate," Watanabe said. "Heis not a good salesman when his opposition is soamorphous, [but] if he can zero in on someone, Iwould not write him off as a lot of people have."

And with Clinton's popularity in this state at58 percent, according to some polls, the state'sRepublican party can only hope for a strong GOPcandidate who will inspire Bay State voters tocross party lines.

"Massachusetts will go along with the rest ofthe country, it may take some time, but we will doit," Vernon says

He added though, "No race is a throw-away andwe will be in there fighting."

But Wolf and other observers say they are notas confident as Sohn seems to be about Kerrey'schances next year.

"Senator Kerrey will put together a good race,but he does not have the emotional appeal thatSenator Kennedy has," Wolf said.

And Watanabe said that if Kerrey runs against"a well-funded articulate candidate," he couldfind himself fighting to hold onto his Senateposition.

When Kerrey last ran in 1990, Watanabe said, hefaced Jim Rappaport, "a third-rate candidate, whogave him a run for his money."

This has given some Massachusetts Republicans asmall glimmer of hope that they will be able toinstall one of their own in the United StatesSenate next November.

And many in the party, impressed with thecampaign Romney ran against Sen. Kennedy lastyear, say they are hoping he will challengeKerrey.

But Romney on election night in November wasnoncommittal about his plans for next year.

"I'm not opening the door, I'm not closing thedoor, I'm leaving it right where it is," he said.

Presidential Race '96

Next year kicks off another presidentialcampaign and with the Massachusetts primaryscheduled for next March, leaders of both stateparties say they are gearing up for what promisesto be another costly and rancorous political race.

Watanabe says that Clinton should not have ahard time winning in Massachusetts, if hisopponent is "of the quality of George Bush."

"Clinton may be a fair president at best, buthe is a hell of a candidate," Watanabe said. "Heis not a good salesman when his opposition is soamorphous, [but] if he can zero in on someone, Iwould not write him off as a lot of people have."

And with Clinton's popularity in this state at58 percent, according to some polls, the state'sRepublican party can only hope for a strong GOPcandidate who will inspire Bay State voters tocross party lines.

"Massachusetts will go along with the rest ofthe country, it may take some time, but we will doit," Vernon says