Against a Sea of Troubles

The images are the worst in a decade. Hundreds of emaciated corpses line the sun-baked gravel roads. The bodies strewn in contorted positions attract only flies and other pests; workers in masks and gloves stack the dead as chunks of rotting chordwood in loose piles. Beyond the dead, upon the roads and grassy fields are the living. Of course they can hardly be called such as most of them appear to be human skeletons shrouded in thin layers of skin and brightly colored clothing. Tragically these scenes are reminiscent of other scenes related by American GIS liberating the concentration camps in 1945 at the end of the Second World War. Yet this is not Europe. This is Rwanda.

The Rwandan refugee crisis has reached a boiling point now that mass epidemics of cholera and dysentery threaten the lives of thousand. The time has finally come for the United States and the Western powers to make a decision whether or not to intervene and to what degree. If action is to be taken, a plan must be formed before the situation deteriorates, before violence and disease get too far out of control. However the background to the Rwandan crisis merits careful attention before any plans should be made.

The trouble in Rwanda started last October when a violent civil war left between a violent civil war left between 100,000 and 500,000 civilians dead. Members of the Tutsi-dominated Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) overthrew the mainly Hutu civil government and militia in three months of bitter fighting. During the last few weeks of fighting the Tutsi rebels drove the Hutu army west (towards Zaire), pushing an estimated 1.75 million Rwandan refugees ahead of them. The exiled Hutu Government fled into the French controlled safe zone in southwestern Rwanda. From this haven, the deposed Hutu leaders broadcast messages of ethnic hatred and revenge over Radio Milles Collines urging their countrymen to flee or be killed at the hands of the RPF. These radio broadcasts have caused widespread panic and fueled the exodus. And therefore Rwanda has become what one observer called a "nation with out people.

Consequently neighboring central African countries including Zaire and Burundi have established camps to deal with the influx of refugees; however, conditions in these camps are nightmarish. Food and water are in high demand as the Goma (Zaire) camp consumes nearly 600 metric tons of food and 50,000 gallons of water daily. According to United Nations officials, the present supplies, imported over the 497 mile gauntlet of bandits and renegade militiamen form Entebbe, are grossly inadequate. Moreover, Entebbe seems the only viable airport, as relief operations to Kigali, Rwanda's capital, frequently draw fire from automatic weapons.

The biggest obstacle to the UN relief efforts is epidemic disease. Because of inadequate sanitation facilities, these camps recently have been subject to widespread outbreaks of cholera and dysentery. Officials fear that at the present rate of proliferation, disease will kill between 7,000 and 70,000 people daily. White House reports estimate that Rwandans in camp die at the rate of one per minute.

So far the Clinton administration has pledged $150 million in aid for Rwanda as well as up to 4,000 US military personnel to coordinate airdrops. UN. Secretary General Boutros-Ghali estimates that the effort will run approximately $434 million. Nonetheless the efforts at best would reduce the spread of disease and privation in the camps. What of resettling the Rwandans in their own country? This is the only way to diffuse the crisis. Resettlement will require a major military commitment on the part of the United States. Rwanda is still an armed camp with sporadic clashes between Hutus and Tutsis still occurring.

Any US ground combat force would sustain casualties on the order of magnitude of Somalia or worse. And just like in Somalia, US forces would have to be committed to an area of no strategic or vital interest for an undetermined amount of time.

Considering the "compassion fatigue" of the United States and other nations, armed intervention is unlikely and wisely unadvised. The failure of similar missions in Bosnia, Somalia, and Ethiopia have lead to and illustrate the limits of potency and the limites of US willpower. With luck and hard work, the conditions will improve and disaster will be averted, but the situation will not be resolved. Sadly the Rwandan situation will linger on.