IOP Panel Predicts Kennedy Victory

Despite voters' frustration with incumbents, political experts on an Institute of Politics panel last night predicted that U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy '54-'56 (D-Mass,) will win re-election next month.

Panelists included experts from both parties: Rachelle Cohen, editorial page editor for the Boston Herald; Al Hunt, Washington executive editor for the Wall Street Journal; former H. Ross Perot pollster Frank Luntz; and Kennedy's media consultant Robert Shrum. They concluded that voters are frustrated with government and will vote against whoever is presently in control.

But the pundits said there would be exceptions like Kennedy, who will face his Republican opponent, Belmont entrepreneur W. Mitt Romney, in a critical televised debate tonight. All the panelists but Luntz also predicted that New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, would remain in office next year.

Michael Gartner, former president of NBC News and columnist for USA Today, served as moderator of the free-wheeling discussion, called "A Look at the '94 Elections." About 100 people attended the event, and audience members offered enthusiastic applause throughout.

Panelists said Republicans will gain ground in Congress and in gubernatorial races nationwide.

"Republicans will take the Senate and have a 50 percent chance of taking the House," said Hunt, a regular on CNN's "Capital Gang."

Hunt cited voter dissatisfaction with President Clinton as the reason for Republican victory on November 8.

Luntz agreed that voters are not happy with the president and the Washington bureaucracy.

"The saliva index--measuring how much voters spit and complain--is high right now," Luntz said. "And the letter 'P' [as in president] lends itself to saliva."

Luntz predicted that Republicans will control both houses of Congress after the election.

Republican Gains

But Shrum said he was less certain of Republican success next month. But he admitted that the Republicans will gain some seats.

"It won't be a particularly good day for Democrats," Shrum said. "But it won't be as good for Republicans as people think. The situation is voluble all over America."

Hunt said the GOP will have control over the next two years and that the debate will then shift again. "Bill Clinton will be re-elected in 1996," he said.

Still, the Kennedy-Romney race held the evening's spotlight.

Luntz attacked Kennedy for making religion an issue in the earlier stages of the campaign. He said that Kennedy's criticism of his opponent's Mormon religion was comparable to Sen. Conrad Burns' use of the word "nigger" in a public forum.

Cohen noted that since Kennedy made Romney's Mormon background an issue, "Romney's numbers have dropped." All agreed that the Republican's numbers are not likely to recover.

The discussion was sponsored by the Institute of Politics, the Kennedy School of Government and the New England Alumni Council.