The Rise of a Superpower

After the Soviet Union dissolved, comic books and capitalists alike were hardpressed to find a new enemy, a new Evil Empire. Cuba was a good candidate, but didn't pose enough of a military or economic threat to invade the minds of xenophobic Americans. Iraq almost made it but soon disappeared from the news. Surprisingly, the most obvious opposing superpower, the People's Republic of China, has failed to assume this role.

During the '80s, when the Red Menace was very close to the hearts of Reagan voters, tallies of nuclear warheads, sea fleets, air forces and tanks made the pages of national newspapers almost every month. Superpower summits were tense affairs; everyone had seen the images of NATO and Soviet infantry lining up on both sides of Poland in mock World War III scenarios.

These days, journalists usually frame threats to national security in economic terms. Germany, though reunification has slowed it down somewhat, has joined Japan as one of the twin economic superpowers eclipsing American markets in both hemispheres. China has made it into the news for a variety of abuses of human rights, but they have just blended into the panorama of third-world oppression ever since the Tiananmen Square demonstrations were crushed.

It is clear that the United States has nothing to fear from Germany and Japan on a military stage. In fact, these economic heavy weights have grudgingly put up money for armed incursions by U.S. forces in Iraq and Somalia.

China does have the capacity to lock horns with the U.S. military. The fact that Deng Xiaoping didn't say, "We will bury you" just means he's less cocky than Khrushchev. China has not carried out any open military operations of late, but it has been particularly insidious in supplying arms, especially the popular Silkworm land-to-sea missile, to nations whose wars are many miles away. The United States perceives China primarily as a cautious backer of North Korea and sometimes Vietnam, not as a direct threat.

Part of China's ability to avoid attention comes from its success in smoothing over the sharp edges of its image. On the economic front, China has permitted capitalism to grow beyond long-standing black markets, though these changes have mostly in urban areas. Its "Iron Curtain" is punctured by a continuous if modest flow of emigrants to the United States and Canada. Students also leave China to study in the West; those that return often become important in modernization efforts.

China certainly has the credentials to be the United States' chief rival: A huge military force and a strong economy. Its annual gross domestic product is growing twice as fast as ours, and its `standing army,' whose exact size is hard to pin down, surely dwarfs our volunteer force. The United States hasn't negotiated nuclear arms reductions with China the way it has with the former Soviet Union. In a conventional or nuclear showdown, the United States' only military advantage could be technology.

Economically, China presents a significant producing and trading opponent. While it suffers problems in the centrally planned distribution of resources, China has a production capacity exceeding that of the European Community. China also offers a tempting market population for American and European industrialists. The magnitude of the Chinese consumer market is especially felt by manufacturers whose products are experiencing declining domestic markets. American cigarette companies, for example, are mounting extensive publicity campaigns despite severe restrictions on their operations in China.

President Bush, a former ambassador to China, was afraid of alienating this rising economic superpower. One of the last major votes in his presidency left China with its Most Favored Nation (MFN) trade status. The press countered arguments for MFN status on a moral basis alone. Journalists cited the increasing reliance of Chinese exporters on the forced labor of prisoners. In Congress, a few legislators also showed concern for the welfare of the Chinese people; they complained that trade profits would be funneled into the military.

In spite of these propitious signs, the Chinese face one great problem in achieving menacing superpower status--they're isolated. The Soviet Union openly maintained alliances in, and sent arms to, every corner of the world, from Cuba to Syria to Madagascar to Vietnam. The United States and the Soviet Union were constantly at odds in every sphere of influence. One power tried to propound democracy while the other strove to spread Communism. The Soviets also had their own orbit of similarly modelled republics--an effective buffer to the West.

China, on the other hand, stands alone. It is monolithic, but lacks leverage in any part of the world except its own formidable chunk. And while China does value international influence, it has no evangelistic mission propelled by the figures of Lenin and Marx.

China's advantage lies in its own internal structure. From the point of view of the West, China consists of a homogeneous mass of land and people. Though this impression is a mistaken one, China has managed to defuse the issue of national identity--all of its provinces are controlled by Beijing as anonymous entities. In contrast, the Soviet Union was perpetually weakened by its scores of `secondary' nationalities and the republics' tendencies to hoard their own resources.

In the next few years, China can look forward to increasing prosperity and the annexation of Hong Kong, a coveted economic jewel. The Clinton Administration appears more concerned about civil rights in China than was President Bush, but China has shown no reluctance to chart its own course whether or not global opinion supports it. The low profile of China's international activities has served it well; the public perception of China is still vague. For now, the United States is Evil Empire-less.