A Model of Democratic Change

For all of you who thought blissfully about the "peaceful transition of power" in this country last November, given the violent revolutions all over the world: That was peanuts. The real action is up north.

In last week's elections, Canada--which boasts only one-tenth of the United States' population--showed itself to be the most vibrant existing democracy. After almost a decade of uninterrupted rule by former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, Canada has completely rebuffed his Progressive Conservative Party. The Conservatives were knocked from 153 seats in the House of Commons down to two.

The successors to the Progressive Conservatives will be Jean Chretien and the members of the Liberal Party, who skyrocketed from 79 seats to 178. But the story does not end where a contest comparable to the annual Democrat-Republican face-off would. The Liberals were not the only party to pick up a large portion of the House; the right-wing Reform Party and Bloc Quebecois each grabbed about one-sixth of the seats.

This year's elections highlighted the sectionalist nature of Canada's voting public. In the West, the Reform Party--the newest version of the corruption--plagued Social Credit or "SoCred" Party--took the majority in British Columbia and Alberta. The New Democrats, who are less centrist than the Liberals and do not really exist east of the Continental Divide, were cut from 35 seats to eight.

The most dramatic development also sported the most sectionalist banner: the Bloc Quebecois, the fervently francophonic and secessionist coalition that ran only in Quebec, nosed out the Reform Party by two seats (54 to 52) to become the new official opposition. While the Progressive Conservatives always had a counter-opinion for every Liberal stance, the Bloc Quebecois has only a nascent political agenda with which to represent the whole nation's opposition.

The Liberals' job will be even more difficult because Quebec is its own section. Ontario, Quebec's powerful and unified neighbor (98 of its 99 representatives are Liberals) will constantly be at loggerheads with the Quebecois on national and regional issues. Furthermore, those 98 votes give Ontario's caucus alone enough sway to tangle with the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform Party all by itself.

Though the Reform Party will not have the perks and privileges of being the official opposition, it will surely be solicited as an ally by the Bloc Quebecois on many occasions. Both parties lean to the right and represent many older Canadians. Nevertheless, one major difference exists between the two factions. While the avowed purpose of the Bloc Quebecois is increased independence for Quebec, the Reform Party represents a constituency that resents Quebec's existing special status and would rather see the province become a sovereign state than grant it more privileges.

Looking at the election from a historical point of view, one has to wonder why former Prime Minister Kim Campbell, who took over from Mulroney when he resigned last spring, made such a poor showing. Was Mulroney surrounded by a cult of personality that kept the Party going? He was popular enough ever since he traded barbs with the last Liberal Prime Minister, John Turner, on national television. His resignation, though, did not exactly throw the country into turmoil.

It seems more likely that Canada experienced a changed political climate too quickly for the Progressive Conservatives to calculate a reaction. During Mulroney's second term, recession hit Canada as hard as it did the United States. If the election had been held two years ago, the Progressive Conservatives would probably still have lost, but by a smaller margin. The fact that their influence was cut by an amount equal to more than half the seats in the House of Commons demonstrates just how dynamic Canadian political opinion can be.

The logical plan to take advantage of such an active populace would be to increase the frequency of elections. While such a program would increase the representation of Canada's actual political leanings, unfortunate side effects would surely develop. As we can see in our own House of Representatives, a two-year term means starting a new campaign as soon at the conclusion of each successful election.

Why should we crown Canada the world's most vibrant democracy? If we reject all European democracies as too paternalistic and all others as too young or too unstable, only the United States is left for comparison. Few would dispute that the United States is the favorite for the honor, but it can't win.

Of course, we're judging both nations by recent elections. Both the Democratic Party and the Liberal Party last won about 60 percent of the aggregate voting power in their respective countries. The Democrats won it with electoral votes last November, but only about 44 percent of the U.S. popular vote; the Liberals won House seats with necessary majorities last week in order to install their Prime Minister.

Before the elections, the candidates for the top jobs in the United States engaged in refined, controlled debates that resembled afternoon talk shows. The Canadian candidates sat only inches away from each other and battled it out with plenty of raised voices. In the United States, four main parties appeared on the ballot; only two, to no one's surprise, had enough votes to gain seats in the House. In Canada, six parties gained seats and three split the bulk of the votes.

Special credit does go the United States for the phenomenon known as Ross Perot, but that just goes to show what a hack can do with $50 million. Perhaps only Perot and his money--"I'll build my own office building"--could have coped with being neither a Democrat nor a Republican in Washington's two-sided corridors. Without that kind of cash, a new or nontraditional party has a much better chance of getting a say north of latitude 49'50".

Canada's Liberals can look forward to a productive four years in office before they must call another election. Even if the Reform Party and Bloc Quebecois come together, they will have trouble outvoting a strong, single party that holds more than half again as many seats. The New Democrats will surely join the Liberals if the leading party tries to keep its campaign promises. Chretien's plans include a public works job initiative similar to Franklin Roosevelt's Civil Conservation Corps and a renegotiation of NAFTA. If he succeeds, he'll be two-up on President Clinton.

Daniel Altman '96 isn't sure whether he can vote in Canada.