Experts Analyze Results of Tuesday's Primaries

Historically finicky New Hampshire voters have thrown a few loops into the upcoming presidential race, political analysts and journalists said at an Institute of Politics (IOP) Forum last night.

Tuesday's primary revealed unexpectedly large support for Republican candidate Patrick J. Buchanan. In the Democratic race, former Mass. Sen. Paul E. Tsongas won a narrow victory over Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton.

The IOP panelists showed a range of responses to Buchanan's strong showing. The conservative commentator captured 40 percent of Republican votes.

"I think we were all stunned by Buchanan's results," said Ann Lewis, a political commentator for WHDHTV and the Monitor Channel. "He didn't exactly step off the Supreme Court to run for president. He stepped out of the TV."

But John Ellis, an IOP consultant and former political analyst for NBC News, saidhe believes Buchanan is using his present campaignto establish a support base for a more viablecandidacy in 1996.

"My view...is that he is running [now] forpresident in 1996," Ellis said. "[He] is using1992 to become the standard-bearer for theconservative cause."

The four panelists' differed in theirpredictions of who will win the Democraticnomination.

Lewis and Tom Oliphant, a Washington columnistfor The Boston Globe, said they expect Clinton togain the Democratic slot over Tsongas.

Tsongas' popularity is limited to theNortheast, they said. In addition, the formersenator was not able to acquire as much momentumas he should have from Clinton's troubledcampaign.

But Ken Bode, director for the Center forContemporary Media at DePauw University, saidTsongas' popularity may increase.

"Tsongas' story has not yet been told to mostAmericans," he said. "They don't even know how topronounce that name."

"Retail campaigning," which associatescandidates with babies and cornfields, will leadAmericans to "understand [Tsongas'] courage anddevotion to family," Bode said.

Bode predicted that with this reputation,Tsongas may rise to a strong national standing byNovember.

Ellis chose write-in candidate Mario M. Cuomo,the governor of New York, to garner the Democraticnomination. However, the other panelists said theyview this race as closed to outside candidates.

"What you see is what you get," said Lewis

"My view...is that he is running [now] forpresident in 1996," Ellis said. "[He] is using1992 to become the standard-bearer for theconservative cause."

The four panelists' differed in theirpredictions of who will win the Democraticnomination.

Lewis and Tom Oliphant, a Washington columnistfor The Boston Globe, said they expect Clinton togain the Democratic slot over Tsongas.

Tsongas' popularity is limited to theNortheast, they said. In addition, the formersenator was not able to acquire as much momentumas he should have from Clinton's troubledcampaign.

But Ken Bode, director for the Center forContemporary Media at DePauw University, saidTsongas' popularity may increase.

"Tsongas' story has not yet been told to mostAmericans," he said. "They don't even know how topronounce that name."

"Retail campaigning," which associatescandidates with babies and cornfields, will leadAmericans to "understand [Tsongas'] courage anddevotion to family," Bode said.

Bode predicted that with this reputation,Tsongas may rise to a strong national standing byNovember.

Ellis chose write-in candidate Mario M. Cuomo,the governor of New York, to garner the Democraticnomination. However, the other panelists said theyview this race as closed to outside candidates.

"What you see is what you get," said Lewis