Don't Be Surprised if Buffalo Surprises Redskins

The Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl because:

1. Jim Kelly is a better quarterback than Mark Rypien.

2. Their offensive players run faster than Washington's defensive players.

3. They won't be allowed back in Buffalo if they lose.

Let's start at the beginning, which for these purposes is last January 27th at Tampa Stadium, when Scott Norwood's 47-yard field-goal attempt sailed two feet wide of the right goal post. That miss handed the New York Giants a 20-19 win over the Bills, who were playing in their first Super Bowl.

That first is important.

"I think we barely knew what was going on around us," says Kent Hull, the Bills' designated talker.

This year they know--even coach Marv Levy, who managed to show up for all the press conferences this year after missing his first last year because he was working on his game plan.

For this year's Super Bowl, part of the Bill's game plan was in last week--the week off Buffalo didn't have the luxury of last year. On the other hand, everyone knows what the real game plan is--Kelly throwing to Andre Reed, James Lofton, Don Beebe, Keith McKeller and Thurman Thomas, and Thomas running this way and that.

The Redskins have been successful against similar teams--the run-and-shoot Falcons and Lions in their two playoff games. But the Bills are something else.

"It's hard to tell how fast their offense runs unless you see it in person," acknowledges Washington Coach Joe Gibbs.

The no-huddle means something else. It means that Buffalo can dictate the pace. Washington figures to come out in a nickel defense, designed to stop the pass, which means that the Bills will probably come out running.

But the pass will still be the principal weapon, one that Washington is not particularly well equipped to stop.

Other than Darrell Green (and sometimes Martin Mayhew), the Redskins do not cover particularly well man-to-man, meaning that Kelly should be able to find one of his five receivers. If they play zone, Kelly should be able to pick it apart. Reed and Thomas are particularly dangerous in the seams of a zone and can run with the ball after they catch it.

Washington's offense will move, too, against a defense that was next to last in the NFL this season.

But that's deceptive. The Bills played their best defense of the season in the play-offs, holding Kansas City to 77 rushing yards after the Chiefs trampled them for 239 in the regular season. The keys will be limiting Washington's running game and getting at least some pressure on Mark Rypien, who still has problems when he is rushed.

The Bills are also used to pressure. They've played under it all year in a city where only a Super Bowl victory will make this a successful season. A loss Sunday and the Bills may be pelted with snowballs getting off the plane.

There is one other factor--the law of averages.

The NFC has won the last seven Super Bowls, five of those seven by margins of 19 points or more. The AFC will win one of these years and it might as well be this one.

Yes, Norwood will miss an extra point, but the Bills will still win.