This Could Be You

No one is more scared by the thought of a draft these days than young men eligible for conscription. Except, perhaps, politicians.

Most members of Congress, aware of the political implications of the draft, are saying "no draft, no way." And military analysts in Washington D.C. call chances of a draft very, very slim.

But what would it take for Congress to revive the draft, which has been dormant since 1973?

Surprisingly, the answer is: very little.

First in a four-part series on the war in the Gulf

To reinstate the draft, Congress need only pass a single piece of legislation that is already written, and activate a bureaucracy that is already in place.

The Selective Service System has all of the details worked out, says spokesperson Larry Waltman. If the draft were to come tomorrow, it would happen something like this:

* On national television, a representative of the Service would appear with two barrels, each full of small plastic capsules. In one, capsules would be numbered one to 365. In the other, each of the 365 capsules would designate a different day of the year.

* The barrels would be spun, and the representative would choose a capsule from each barrel. The "date capsule" would designate a birthday, and the "number capsule" would indicate the order in which men born on that date would be required to report to the military for physical examinations.

* Each round applies to men born in a particular year. For example, if the first date were to be June 4, and the first number chosen an 18, then 20-year-olds born on June 4 would be the 18th group called upon. If the draft is activated anytime in 1991, then all those born in 1971 would be considered 20-year-olds.

* Initially, the Service would only order one year. But if the pool of over two million 20-year-olds is exhausted, they will turn, in order, to 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 19, and 18-year-olds.

Getting Out

Although millions of men are eligible for the draft, it seems as though there is an equal number of creative excuses. But in fact, the list of acceptable exemptions has already been decided, Waltman says.

Although they were exempt for much of the Vietnam War, college students are today fair game for the draft. They can petition to postpone their service until the end of the semester, or, if they are in their final year of a degree program, until the end of the year.

Conscientious objectors--those who can prove that they are opposed in principle to all wars, and not just this particular conflict--can substitute public service for military enlistment. Sometimes, however, they are assigned to non-combat duties in the military.

Students in the Reserve Officers Training Corps can finish their studies before serving out their time with the military, even in the event of a draft.

Hardship dependencies, those in the National Guard or military reserves, clergymen and those studying for the clergy are all exempt from the draft.

A military ban on gay men does not exempt them from reporting for physical exams, but those familiar with the process say that, with proof, gays can claim exemptions under a clause that disqualifies those with "disabling mental or physical condition."

Gays and would-be conscientious objectors should plan early for a draft, says Judith E. Schwartz, a counselor with the Cambridge-based Boston Alliance Against Registration and the Draft. Most important is collecting background information that can be used in a hearing, like letters from friends or family, she says.

What To Do

"In the event of a draft," Schwartz says, "they need to get a hold of Form 9 at the post office. On that form they can claim to be reclassified as a conscientious objector or as someone with a disabling mental or physical condition."

The next step, a hearing with military officials, can be trying, says Robert Dove, a counselor with the American Friends Service Committee. "Sometimes you get questions like 'What would you do if Hitler killed your grandmother?' I would never believe it if I hadn't gotten that one myself."

When deciding whether to award conscientious objector status, Dove says, the military looks for depth and sincerity of belief. He adds that selective objection--to some wars and not all--have not been adequate for exemption in the past.

Thought of the draft, for this generation of young men, immediately evokes images of resisters of the Vietnam War era: protestors sticking flowers in the gun barrels of soldiers guarding the Pentagon, students sitting-in, teachers teaching-in and John Lennon and Yoko Ono sleeping-in, staying in bed to protest the war.

And there were those who fled to Canada. But crossing the border to escape the draft is a less appealing option due to tighter immigration rules, a spokesperson for the Canadian Embassy said.

Now, the same young men who look upon past resisters as either hippie criminals or courageous disobedients are faced with the prospect of making those same decisions for themselves.

Chances Are Slim

Most experts point to big differences between the Vietnam War and the Gulf War and say that draft worries are premature.

In the 1960s, the draft was a fact of life for American men, having been in place continuously since 1948. As such, the need for increased forces in Southeast Asia met with little initial resistance.

But painful memories of the Vietnam War and the intervening years have turned public opinion against a draft. And even if this were not the case, experts say, a draft will probably not be necessary.

"In this war, the draft won't be militarily or politically feasible," says retired Rear Adm. Eugene J. Carroll, Jr., an analyst with the military watchdog group Center for Defense Information.

Carroll says he expects the U.S. to achieve victory quickly and decisively. And with 475,000 men and women already in the Persian Gulf, the military still has 1.6 million reservists that can be called upon to serve.

Other analysts say that an overall reduction of international tensions in recent years has freed up American military resources. The need for a huge military, even in the time of war, is therefore greatly reduced.

"Our global responsibilities are greatly reduced now," says Joshua. M. Epstein, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington D.C. think-tank. "Europe used to be 60 percent of our defense spending. By comparison to the Warsaw Pact, Iraq is not that big."

In the Vietnam era, "we always had the concern that the Soviet Union could come screaming across the folding gap. We have more of a relaxed atmosphere in Europe now," says one military analyst with the American Enterprise Institute.

In Six Months, Maybe

And while chances of the draft were called slim by almost every expert contacted, several spelled out scenarios in which it could become a reality.

President Bush is committed to a volunteer army, but if the war were to last six months or more with heavy casualties, the draft would necessarily become a viable option, says Jay Kosminsky, deputy director of defense policy studies at the Heritage Foundation.

Kosminsky says that the length of the war, rather than the number of combat injuries or deaths, will be the most important factor in deciding whether to institute a draft, because troops need to be rotated out of combat after a certain length of duty.

If the U.S. sticks to its stated goals--driving Iraqi forces out of Kuwait and restoring the border--the operation could be fairly quick, says Epstein of the Brookings Institute.

"But if, contrary to the original statement, this thing escalates into an invasion of Iraq, with the U.S. establishing a new government and subduing resistance, then the matter would be far different," Epstein says.

"My trepidation is that ['liberating' Kuwait] will not suffice for President Bush," Epstein says.

But if Bush or lawmakers on Capital Hill are considering the draft as an option, most of them certainly aren't letting on.

The House Armed Services Committee put off hearings scheduled for last week on the "sustainability of an all-volunteer force." The Committee maintains that there is "no intention" of reinstating the draft.

U.S. Rep. Les Aspin (D-Wis.), chair of the committee, is "opposed to the draft," an aide said. "No event in the foreseeable future could change his opinion."

Even U.S. Rep. Henry Hyde (R-III.), who has said in public that Congress might begin discussion of a draft after several months of ground war, has put a halt to speculation. "There is no need for the draft," his spokesperson said. "No one wants it."

The only member of Congress who deviated from the "no draft, no how" pledge last week was Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), chair of the Senate Armed Forces Committee, whose aides cited several news programs on which Nunn said that a war lasting several months would prompt discussion of the draft.

The executive branch, however, is holding fast. A spokesperson for the Department of Defense insisted that officials are not even considering the option. "There is no draft," he said, "and there has been no planning."

D. Richard DeSilva contributed to the reporting of this article.

Tomorrow: Part two examines the relationship between Harvard scholarship and the war in the Gulf.

Politicians are saying 'No draft. No way.' But what would it take for Congress to revive the draft? The answer is: Very little.