Goldman Facesthe Soviet Press

Marshall I. Goldman, the associate director of the Russian Research Center, had been interviewed by Soviet reporters before. "You knew it was always going to be a hatchet job," he said.

But when the expert on the Soviet economy agreed to be interviewed by correspondents Alexander Vasinsky and Alexander A. Shalnev from Izvestia, the official Soviet government daily, he felt the changes in the Soviet press which have been spurred by Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev's glasnost policies would make the interviewers more evenhanded.

Goldman invited a Crimson reporter to come along to the interview, which took place over lunch at the Faculty Club last Tuesday.

And despite the interviewers' sometimes contentious tones, Goldman said he remained optimistic that the Izvestia article will be fair.

"I think there's a good chance that it'll be reasonably accurate," said Goldman.

The session began as an orientation into the workings of the Russian Research Center. A tour of the center's library in the basement of Coolidge Hall was followed by questions and answers about the institute's budget, endowment and access to University-wide resources.

But the tone of the interview quickly shifted as Shalnev, the former White House correspondent for the Soviet news agency Tass, questioned Goldman repeatedly about his well-publicized predictions that Gorbachev would soon be driven from power.

Goldman has maintained that public disorder, spurred by both the slow pace of some reforms and the side effects of others--like inflation arising from the easing of price controls--will lead conservatives to seize power from Gorbachev.

The Izvestia correspondents probed Goldman, apparently trying to find out if the economist only expected Gorbachev to fall, or wanted him to as well.

"My recipe is this: Gorbachev will try and will fail and will be replaced," Goldman said. "I don't mean that personally."

Using such terms such as "hero" and "the real revolutionary of the 20th century," Goldman repeatedly assured the reporters that he supported Gorbachev and his attempts to change the Soviet Union.

He even pointed out that he had a personally autographed copy of the Soviet leader's book, Perestroika.

But the Soviets continued to press Goldman throughout the lunch meeting; the dialogue between the scholar and his interviewers over the Faculty Club's salad and fish often resembled a cautious sparring match.

At one point Shalnev appeared to be slightly exasperated and asked, "So we go back to the stagnation period?"

Goldman responded, "I know it's hard to believe. It's not anti-Soviet. I'm looking at it as an economist."

Shalnev, though, was not persuaded. "You're not anti-Soviet?," he demanded.

Goldman's answer: "No."

But the questioning continued.

Shalnev said, "How do you define anti-Soviet?"

And Goldman explained, "Anyone who wants the Soviet Union to fail, who does not want it to succeed."

Shalnev: "And you're not that?"

Goldman: "Absolutely not."

A few minutes later, Goldman said, "It's a tragedy. It's a tragedy to see him try and not succeed."

Shalnev pushed once more. "Don't you see him succeeding?," he asked.

Goldman's assessment: "No, we don't. He's the right man with the right ideas, but he's not going to succeed."

And later, Goldman asked, "What happens if Gorbachev fails? What happens if I'm right?"

Shalnev propsed a deal, asking, "How much do you want to bet on that?"

"I'll bet," said Goldman.

"How much?," his questioner demanded.

The capitalist scholar's response: "One dollar."

Unbelieving, Shalnev said, "The fate of an entire country on one dollar?"

"I'm not a betting man," Goldman said.

The reporters then turned their questioning to Goldman's thoughts on who would succeed Gorbachev and to his opinion of President Bush's foreign policy.

But before heading off to Houghton Library to view Leon Trotsky's original papers (the Soviets seemed shocked that Harvard owned them and several times asked Goldman if the University would consider selling them to the USSR), Shalnev briefly returned to the question of Gorbachev's fate.

After hearing that Goldman predicted the secession of ethnic minority republics, riots in the streets and massive strikes in his homeland, Shalnev concluded, "Professor, you're a real pessimist."