Krenz Disbands East German Politburo

This week's mass resignation by East Germany's Politburo and Cabinet is just the latest instance of rapid change sweeping Eastern Europe, and it could lead to either a military crackdown or a fundamental reform of the relationship between Moscow and its Warsaw Pact allies, Harvard professors said yesterday.

The resignations by the East German leaders comes at a time when tens of thousands of citizens are demonstrating for democratic reform, and similar numbers are streaming out of the country, destined for West Germany.

"There is already chaos in East Germany by any traditional yardstick for measuring diplomacy and politics in Europe," said Marvin Kalb, director of the Kennedy School of Government's Shorenstein Barone Center on Press, Politics and Public Policy. "The question is, `Can it be controlled and managed?'"

"If things begin to unravel too much [in East Germany], there will be a crackdown and government by decree and martial law," said Baird Professor of History Richard Pipes, a member of the National Security Council under former President Ronald W. Reagan.

Senior Lecturer in Social Studies Richard M. Hunt said that because of the volatile situation in East Germany, a "new Tienanmen Square confrontation" could occur, referring to thisspring's violent suppresion of a pro-democraticdemonstration in Beijing by the Chinesegovernment.

Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev musteventually decide whether to use the 370,000Soviet troops now stationed in East Germany toquell the demonstrations--a move that couldundermine his trademark policy of glasnost,Hunt said.

But other professors said the turmoil in EastGermany may instead lead to fundamental changes inthe Soviet Union's policies toward the Easternbloc, as its allies accelerate the reform processstarted in Moscow.

Kalb, who once served as an NBC correspondentin Moscow, said the unrest in East Germany "isanother indication that the Soviet control of EastEurope as we know it is in the process of profoundchange."

Marshal Goldman, associate director of theRussian Research Center, said that the events inEast Germany will create a "domino effect" ofinstability that will eventually reach the SovietUnion itself.

"Society is dissolving underneath Gorbachev.His platform is built on land which is slidingbeneath him," Hunt said.

Adam B. Ulam, director of the Russian ResearchCenter and Gurney professor of history andpolitical science, said the rapid change wasprompting a "general discombobulation ofcommunism."

But experts disagreed over how the UnitedStates should respond to the situation.

"We have to take a position that we view thesituation sympathetically," Ulam said. "But itwould be a mistake to get too involved. Weshouldn't be too obtrusive."

Hunt said that any American involvement in thepolitical affairs of East Germany should come onlyafter consultation between President Bush and WestGerman Prime Minister Helmut Kohl.

But Professor of History Charles S. Maier, adiplomatic historian, said Bush has been toocautious in his response to the Eastern Europeanpolitical tumult.

"I don't think that a `read my lips' policy isan adequate response to this situation," saidMaier. "I personally think we have bungled anyvision for the future.