Going Down by Default

LIKE it or not, Gov. Michael S. Dukakis is going to be this year's Democratic nominee for president.

This week's New York primary--which for all intensive purposes pushed Dukakis over the top--proved what political analysts and election followers knew all along: that Dukakis would win the nomination by default.

The Democrats fielded a group of candidates who, despite their strengths, each had salient flaws precluding them from the nomination. Yesterday wasn't so much a Dukakis win, as the rest of the pack's loss.

Both Sen. Gary Hart of Colorado and Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware brought top Senate experience, from foreign policy to justice. Then Hart slept his way into the mass media and out of the race. Biden barely made it into the media, until he plagiarized enough to be kicked out of the race.

Rep. Richard Gephardt's (D--Missouri) politics of resentment and trade walls played well in Iowa but fell flat on the more integrated and tradedependent Northeast. Sen. Paul Simon's (D-Illinois) brand of populism was equally anachronistic.

Sen. Albert J. Gore Jr. '69 of Tennessee entered the race with the most foreign policy experience of any candidate, sharp debating skills and an attractive television presence. Yet his regionalism, which handed him the Deep South Super Tuesday, slapped him into obscurity in the rest of the country. Ed Koch was virutally the only New Yorker who knew him.

The Rev. Jesse Jackson inspired the poor and liberal intellectuals, while cornering the Black vote, rivalling the Duke for a time. In the end, however, his lack of government experience and his past anti-semitic associations torpedoed his hopes for the White House.

THAT left Dukakis, the clean and simple candidate. He didn't run on any issues, nor did he wield the eloquence or sharpness of his competitors. He said he was pro-Israel, but refused to commit to specific plan for peace. He promised to recreate the Massachusetts Miracle nationwide, but failed to outline fiscal reforms beyond more stringent tax collection. Instead, he "stayed above the political strife" and presented himself as the only competent candidate with no outstanding faults.

Faced with the alternatives, Democratic voters picked the man who was least offensive. Thought Dukakis was not terribly inspirational, at least he was palatable. In this race, that was unique.

But beating Bush will not be so easy. With only two candidates, the governor will no longer be able to let his competitors fight off each other while he remains above the strife. One on one with Bush, Dukakis will have to hold his own. And with the two running dead even in the polls, Bush will not go down without a fight.

Bush embodies many of the skills that Dukakis's Democratic opponents did and that Dukakis lacks. Bush has a strong command of the issues, including foreign policy, and national government experience. A skilled debater, Bush promises to put Dukakis on the spot when they go head-to-head this fall.

Besides boasting cross-regional support, Bush is running on the coattails of the most popular president in history. Despite controversy over the Iran-Contra affair and Attorney General Edwin Meese, Reagan's support in November could well push bush over the top.

SO Dukakis can't beat Bush by default. His victory will depend on decision--to take the initiative and tackle the issues.

To win over the voters in the swing states, Dukakis can't rely on his record as a capable leader. A well-crafted attack on Bush's weakest spot--his role in the Iran-Contra affair--may be enough to bring down his candidacy. But Dukakis shouldn't count on it. He must show that his policy in office would be a far better alternative to four more years of Republican rule.

Dukakis ought to make farm policy a central issue of the debates if he hopes to win Illinois and the Midwest. If he has any hopes of taking states like Florida away from the Vice President, he must make his universal health-care policies a bulwark of his platform. He has to set out concrete initiatives on crises ripping their way into the media and Congress, such as Central American strife and the federal deficit.

Americans won't come to Dukakis, Dukakis will have to go to them.