Gephardt, Dole Triumph In Iowa Caucuses

The caucus voters of Iowa dealt a harsh blow to Republican Vice President George Bush's campaign, but did little to alter the Democratic nomination race, Harvard political experts said last night.

With Sen. Robert Dole (R-Ka.) and former television evangelist Pat Robertson finishing first and second, respectively, in the Republican race, the experts agreed that the Vice President needs a powerful showing in New Hampshire to keep up with his opponents.

"Now [Bush's] expected victory in New Hampshire will have to be viewed as a strong, impressive victory," said Marvin Kalb, who directs the Center for Press, Politics, and Public Policy at the Kennedy School. "If the number two man in New Hampshire is in a strong position, that will reflect badly on the Vice President."

But while Bush's performance may have been poor, most agreed that Dole and Robertson garnered strong support mainly because the Iowa caucus was just that--held in Iowa and in the form of a caucus, instead of a primary vote. Richard Thornburgh, Institute of Politics director and former Pennsylvania Governor, said that Dole's victory may have been more representative of his Midwestern support than his national appeal.

"Though Senator Dole can take satisfaction, he was, of course, a neighbor," Thornburgh said.

Thornburgh also said that he was not surprised by Pat Robertson's second place finish, because Robertson's supporters took part in a grass roots organization well-suited to the caucus procedure.

"Robertson's support was much more likely to register in a limited showing, closed caucus style," Thornburgh said. "His supporters would be out in a greater proportion."

While Robertson's showing was impressive, Professor of Government Martin Kilson said that Robertson might have difficulty carrying his momentum into the upcoming primaries.

"He got the tenacious fundamentalist vote, because they show up, and they do their work," Kilson said. "He has the advantage of having `godly' men working for him, but it many be a very different situation in New Hampshire."

In the Democratic race, Harvard experts said that Rep. Richard Gephardt's (D.-Mo.) victory boosted his candidacy for now but did not doom the runners-up, Sen. Paul Simon (D.-III.) and Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, who each gathered momentum yesterday for next week's New Hampshire primary.

"Gephardt has a big advantage in Iowa, because that's Gephardt country, so to speak," Kilson said. "That's an `Iowa-limited' event, and Gephardt has a different race ahead of him when he comes to the primaries in the East and South."

"The Gephardt margin wasn't all that wide," Thornburgh said. "Both Simon and Dukakis remain viable candidates, and the polls show Dukakis out in front in New Hampshire."

Though experts questioned Jackson's viability as a national candidate, they were still impressed with his showing in Iowa.

"Jackson's performance ought to be a source of satisfaction to his supporters," Thornburgh said. "Iowa has a low Black population, and the results show more than just a Black vote for Jackson."

Thornburgh added that campaign follwers should "avoid the tendency to generalize and exaggerate the results of a caucus state that is not at all a cross-section of the nation."

But Kalb, who called the Iowa caucus a "glorious example of American democracy," said that he thought yesterday's results might have sounded the death knell for several candidates in both parties.

"I think that there's going to be a terrible amount of pressure to withdraw on people like [former Secretary of State Alexander] Haig, [former Governor of Delaware Pete] duPont, and even [New York Rep. Jack] Kemp on the Republican side, and on the Democratic side, [former Sen. Gary] Hart and [former Arizona Governor Bruce] Babbit," Kalb said.

In reference to Hart's poor performance, Kilson said, "Hart is a spoiler. Justice has occurred and the spoiler has gotten his just deserts."