A Word to the Wise, Advice to the Ailing

Over the last ten days, television has been consumed by "Campaign '88" coverage--even though the nation's viewers would prefer "Calgary '88." Consequently, we have witnessed a multitude of post-primary prognoses. Some have been accurate, others interesting, but most simply repetitive. It's time the candidates distill these messages into simple terms and answer the question that must be on everyone's mind: "Where do we go from here?"

THE DEMOCRATS

Rep. Richard Gephardt: Momentum. He's got it, moving from 6 percent in New Hampshire polls three weeks ago to 20 percent in Tuesday's primary. Now, he has to be sure to hang onto it--even if that means darkening his eyebrows.

Gephardt has spent more time in the South than any other Democratic candidate and has aquired enormous backing from his House colleagues. All of which should mean a super showing in Super Tuesday--and beyond. His potential problem: will he be able to justify his inconsistent voting record, particularly his support for 1985 Reagan tax law, or will he appear a political weathervane?

Gov. Michael Dukakis: Massachusetts. Can a Northeast liberal sell in Birmingham, Alabama? Like Gephardt, he too has great momentum building for Super Tuesday. And unlike Gephardt he has a strong financial base. But, in the next 19 days he must capitalize on his standing in the polls. Strong showings--if not victories--in next week's Minnesota, South Dakota, and South Carolina primaries are essential.

While the governor predicts that his message for new employment and training initiatives, better industrial relations and improved education will assure a Southern victory, his superior Southern organization and the nod from influential Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton are critical assurances.

Sen. Paul Simon: Money. And, boy does he need it! Rivaling Gephardt for the number two spot in New Hampshire forced Simon to flood the airwaves with advertising and, in the process, empty his warchest.

While Simon gained virtually the same number of delegates as the other two Democratic front-runners, he failed to gain the essential momentum. A few failed percentage points mean a loss of crucial fundraising opportunities--and may prophesy the beginning of the end. If Simon does not win in one of next Tuesday's Minnesota or South Dakota primaries, he will leave the presidential race, he announced yesterday.

Rev. Jesse Jackson: Minority. His performances in Iowa and New Hampshire have proven that he has won over substantial white support. His grassroots organization of Southern voters guarantees him Super Tuesday success. Since the Democratic Party is trying to overcome the factional interests that plagued it in 1984 and will probably not opt for a Black candidate, the most he can hope for is kingmaker status at the convention and support for a future run for a senatorial or gubernatorial office.

Sen. Albert Gore: Mystery. Gore has put very little time into either Iowa or New Hampshire and is banking on an amazing Super Tuesday sweep. No president since 1952 has won election without taking New Hampshire first, so how or why Gore plans to do the impossible remains to be seen. He will have a few more problems, namely his excessive ambition and the growing bickering between his and Rep. Gephardt's campaigns. But he certainly cannot be discounted. The Tennessee senator is one of the Democratic Party's rising stars and a likely vice presidential candidate.

Bruce Babbitt: Maybe Next Time. The Former Arizona Governor made a fatal political flaw: telling the truth about his tax policy (Walter Mondale made the same mistake). While Babbitt's national consumption tax won him some valuable media attention, it won very few real votes. Because of this poor showing, he is spending the next two days considering the future of his campaign. But, don't forget about him; the word is out that he's already looking to '92.

Gary Hart: Maggot. Who's he trying to fool? This guy can't really expect to win--and the voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have certainly confirmed that. He has no staff, no money, no viable strategy. But, he's got one thing that's making it all wothwhile (no, not Donna)--Federal Matching Funds. He is receiving funds from the federal government that match his present campaign funds, so at least he'll be able to pay off his massive debts. What a guy.

THE REPUBLICANS

Vice President George Bush: Millionaire. Bush is the favored son of the Republican Party and has all the money to prove it. Consequently, he pulled off a huge media blitz against competitor Senator Robert Dole, including a half hour live talkshow. His televised attack on Dole's votes for tax increases and support for an oil import fee signal a healthy diversion from character attacks to policy criticism. His subsequent victory in New Hampshire was essential to halting Dole's post-Iowa momentum.

As Bush moves South he heads to a region of personal strength, where his finances and contacts with Republican leaders will guarantee success. But, he and Dole still have many more battles ahead--and much more blood to shed.

Sen. Robert Dole: Mean. The Kansas Senator is already diving into trouble with the vice president calling him a liar in New Hampshire and viciously attacking him on the floor of the Senate last week. Now that Dole is going on the offensive, his malevolent approach may damage his image as powerfully as it did in his bid for the vice presidency on the Ford ticket in 1976. What a guy to negiotiate peace treaties-- watch out Gorbachev!

Dole is also very strong going into the South. With the benefits of his wife Elizabeth's North Carolinian background and his popularity among farmers, Dole has a basis for muscling voter support.

Rev. Marion (Pat) Robertson: Messiah. Although the "hand of God" did not pull enough levers in New Hampshire, Robertson has an incredibly strong organization in the South. He has converted -- and registered -- unprecedented numbers of new Republicans from the ranks of the Democratic party and nonvoters.

Unfortunately for Robertson, as the campaign wears on, he will have to seriously address the issues and at some point, the voters will no longer accept his inflamatory and disbased statements, like those made last week about Soviet missiles in Cuba. Eventually, spiritual power alone will not be satisfactory, and he will need some real political strength.

Rep. Jack Kemp: Multi-flex. The famous former Buffalo Bills quarterback sees himself as the only candidate flexible enough to unify the three feuding factions of the Republican Party: the Reaganites, the New Right, and the Robertson Evangelicals. Unfortunately, no one seems to appreciate his flexibility--including most voters in each faction.

Even his third place finish in Tuesday's primary was only a minor victory. The two fourth place finishers, and du Pont, were only three percentage points behind Kemp. Consequently, the New York Congressman's days are numbered; he has little momentum, less money, and no real prospect.

Pierre (Pete) du Pont Maniac. This guy is just wasting his time. The Republican Party has many stong candidates and he is not one of them. Need I say anymore?