Mass. Republicans Rejoice

THIS year should have been the one the Massachusetts Republican Party was declared officially dead. After a pathetically-weak performance by the GOP in the 1986 gubernatorial elections, Gov. Michael S. Dukakis' candidacy should have bolstered the state Democratic ranks even further, and sent Bay State Republicans scurrying south for friendlier territory.

Instead, Dukakis' popularity in Massachusetts has plummeted since his presidential bid began, and the Republican Party has used this to their advantage to begin their long march back to political legitimacy.

The 1986 Republican gubernatorial campaign was an embarrassment for all involved. The campaign of the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, Greg Hyatt, was rocked by scandal. Hyatt's former secretary revealed she had seen him naked twice in his office, and a former client to his political consulting firm charged him with failing to complete a project.

The Republican State Convention then endorsed the candidacy of state Representative Royall Switzler of Wellesley, a well-known, colorful gadfly. Switzler later admitted he had lied about his military record when he claimed to have served as a Green Beret in Vietnam. Switzler's Vietnam combat experience, he revealed, had consisted of watching footage on the evening news.

Switzler was soon forced to step down, and the party quickly appointed a Waltham businessman, George Kariotis, to head the ticket. Dukakis won the general election handily by a margin of 69 to 31 percent.

THE 1986 election was the political victory that rocketed Michael Dukakis to national prominence and fueled his presidential ambitions. Dukakis' margin of victory was the highest in Massachusetts in a century, was the biggest ever by a Democratic governor here, and larger than even Governor Mario Cuomo's margin of victory in New York.

Such impressive results gave Dukakis a presidential aura. This reasoning was faulty, explains state Senator David Locke, a member of the state Republican leadership: "Dukakis' success was camouflaged. He couldn't lose. He ran against an absolutely jinxed campaign, candidate and platform. [The results] were misread absolutely."

When Dukakis announced his presidential bid in March 1987, he credited his support. In a speech aimed at Massachusetts residents he said: "It has been your successes, your values, your support and what we have achieved together that has given me this opportunity."

Yet Dukakis' support here in Massachusetts was not as solid as he expected. In a recent poll of likely Massachusetts voters done by KRC Research of Cambridge for the Boston Herald and WBZ-TV, Dukakis led Vice-President Bush by a mere 43 percent to 39 percent--well within the five point margin of error. Eighteen percent of the poll respondents were undecided.

According to further polling information released by KRC pollster Gerry Chervinsky, Dukakis is not only failing to attract as many Independent voters as Bush, but he is also finding it difficult to protect his base of support. Among respondents identifying themselves as Democrats, Dukakis maintained a lead of 64 to 24 percent. Republican voters, however, stayed loyal to their nomineee by a much larger margin of 82 to 6 percent. Among independents, Bush maintained a slight edge over the Governor of 38 to 34 percent.

Perhaps more significant are Boston Globe poll results last month which showed that Dukakis' favorability rating in Massachusetts has dropped from 73 percent to 57 percent in one year. His negative rating over the same period has grown from 25 percent to 41 percent.

PART of the reason for Dukakis' decline is that Massachusetts voters are hearing effective criticism of the Governor for the first time. As Locke explained in an interview last week, "That facade the Democrats have clouded themselves in is now being perceived" due to effective Republican criticism on the national level.

Locke and other Massachusetts Republican officials are quick to claim that Dukakis' poor ratings indicate that Bay State voters are unhappy with Dukakis' performance as governor, particulary since he launched his presidential campaign 17 months ago. They charge that Dukakis has ignored state matters while he has been campaigning across the nation, citing state fiscal matters and the stalled auto insurance reform bill.

Locke says that "Dukakis has literally abandoned Massachusetts. He's governing on Saturdays, and using the state for his presidential ambitions." State Sen. Paul Cellucci, chairman of the Massachusetts Bush campaign concurs: "Clearly there is some dissatisfaction with the record and performance of Michael Dukakis. If Michael Dukakis was as competent a governor as he wants us to believe, why aren't more people in Massachusetts supporting him?"

State Democratic Party officials and the Dukakis-Bentsen campaign deny any erosion of support for Dukakis here, claiming the recent polls are meaningless, and that Dukakis will win Massachusetts by an overwhelming margin in November.

Bob Nickerson, the acting director of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, explains that polls in the 1978 gubernatorial primary between Gov. Dukakis and challenger Edward J. King showed Dukakis to be much more popular than his opponent. Dukakis lost the primary to King 51 percent to 42 percent, but earlier polling had shown that Dukakis was vulnerable on the issues of the need for tax cuts and a decrease in crime--issues similar to those stressed by Bush in the presidential election.

IN February of 1987, the Massachusetts Republican Party formulated a detailed rebuilding plan, according to Alexander Tennant '74, the director of the Massachusetts Republican Party. The main goal was to build a solid financial base. After the 1986 election debacle, the GOP faced a $140,000 deficit. This year alone, in cooperation with Bush's Victory '88 fundraising campaign, they have raised $1.5 million.

For the first time in 15 years, Tennant says, the Republicans are able to contest half of the seats in the predominantly Democratic state senate, and 10 more candidates are running for the state House of Representatives than in 1986. Perhaps more significantly, the Republican Party has changed its image from stodgy, Yankee patricians to younger, tougher entrepreneurs. The average age of newly elected members of the Republican State Committee is 28 to 30.

Still, the Republican Party has to go a long way to reach parity with the Democrats in the one state that can proudly say it voted for George McGovern in 1972. The most recent figures available from the office of the Secretary of the Commonwealth show that 46.4 percent of registered voters in Massachusetts are Democrats, 40.1 percent are independents, and a mere 13.5 percent are registered Republicans.

DESPITE recent poll results, the prevailing political wisdom dictates that Mike Dukakis will probably win Massachusetts' 13 electoral votes in the presidential election, although by a much smaller margin than he would like. But Dukakis' national campaign has revitalized the state Republicans, rather than completely eliminating them. Whether Dukakis wins or loses the presidential campaign nationally, that's surely not the kind of legacy he wants to leave the folks back home.