The Philippines

CONGRATULATIONS--and a breath of relief--are in order for Corazon Aquino and the people of the Philippines. While the results of the February 2 plebiscite have not yet been completely tallied, it appears that Aquino has been granted an overwhelming mandate for the continuation of her presidency. Over three-quarters of the voters supported her draft constitution.

This latest success came just as the centrist Aquino presidency was recovering from a series of political setbacks. The shooting of 18 demonstrators on January 22 by security forces drew extreme criticism from the left; five days later right-wing elements of the armed forces staged an abortive coup. Then, on January 30, rebel negotiators announced that they would no longer seek an extension of the two month cease-fire between Communist and government troops.

The apparent weakness of Aquino's grip on the situation was highlighted by vocal opposition to the draft constitution. Political forces of both the extreme left and extreme right joined in attacking the constitution which ensures, among other things, the continuation of Aquino's presidency until 1992.

And yet, the results of the plebescite demonstrate the enormous support Aquino still holds among the people. After two coup attempts and innumerable other threats to her presidency, Aquino is truly the political beast that won't die. Like Reagan in his halcyon days, she seems to stand above the swirl of events that surround her. In a country in which dishonesty and politics go hand in hand, Aquino is the non-political politician, the woman who claimed she was nothing more than a housewife.

There are clouds on the horizon, however. Yesterday the 60-day cease-fire with Communist rebels formally ended. While right wing members of the military were no doubt appeased by the renewal of violence, centrist hopes of peaceful, broad-spectrum political participation were crushed. Further polarization of Philippine politics can only weaken Aquino's grip on the military.

With popular mandate in hand, Aquino is now well-positioned to begin extending her authority. The center, the largest portion of the population, is behind her. But only 60 percent of her own armed forces voted in favor of the draft constitution; if she cannot increase her popularity within the military the threat of further coup attempts will continue to loom ominous. On the other hand, if she cannot control the Communist insurgency she may well lose popular support.

While Aquino rightfully deserves praise for holding together her people against extremism, it is worth remembering that her presidency is still less than a year old. Unless she can parlay her enormous popular support into concrete political stability, the continual crises of the past months will continue to resurface.