Politicians Scrambling for O'Neill's Much-Coveted Congressional Seat

First there were 50, now there are 10 and in about 11 months there will be one.

That one will be the survivor of a grueling, two-year political marathon to succeed Speaker of the House Thomas P. O'Neill (D-Mass.) as the next representative of the famous and coveted Eighth Congressional District.

Encompassing all of Cambridge, parts of South Boston, Allston, Watertown and Somerville, the Eighth is considered one of the most influential and famous democratic congressional seats in the nation.

Besides O'Neill, the seat has been represented by three of state's most influential Democrats of this century, including John F. Kennedy '40; James Michael Curley, the four-term mayor of Boston; and John F. "Honey Fitz" Fitzgerald, the Boston political boss and the former president's grandfather. Observers say the historic nature of the seat has contributed to heightened interest in the race among local politicians and the media.

Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by six to one and the winner of the Democratic primary, most political analysts agree, will likely win the general election.

But some political observers and candidates say that if an extremely liberal Democrat wins the primary, the Republican nominee might win the general district fight, where 29 percent of the voters are independents.

The candidate selection process for the Democratic primary in September, 1986 began close to a year and a half ago when O'Neill announced he would not seek reelection. Since that time many politicians, ranging from a Harvard law student to Edward M. Kennedy Jr., the son of the Massachusetts senior senator, have, under an unusual amount of public scrutiny, lofted trial balloons for a possible bid (Kennedy has since said he would not run.).

"We haven't tested the waters so much as wallowed in them," explains State Rep. Willian Galvin (D-Boston), a top contender for the seat and one of the more conservative candidates in the Democratic primary field.

Galvin and eight other candidates have officially filed election papers. And at least one other candidate, Melvin H. King, who ran for mayor of Boston in 1983, confirmed he will definitely run for the seat.

Among the nine who have filed are two Republicans: Clark C. Abt, head of the cambridge-based consulting firm Abt Associates; and Dr. Mildred Jefferson, an anti-abortion activist. Abt is viewed as almost sure winner in that field by political observors.

But almost all politicians are hedging their bets on who will win the democratic primary.

Early polls commissioned by candidates indicate that State Sen. George Bachrach (D-Watertown), who already represents 30 percent of voters in the congressional district, and James Roosevelt '68, grandson of President Franklin D. Roosevelt '04 and an influential Massachuetts politician and lawyer, have the highest name recognition.

But Bachrach discounts the polls, saying, "Where you are is not where you will wind up." And as one political consultant put it, "The definitive poll will not be taken in April, from which a top tier of three candidates will emerge."

Besides Bachrach and Roosevelt, State Rep. Thomas J. Valley (D-Beacon Hill), State Rep. Thomas Gallagher (D-Allston), Galvin, and Boston lawyer Vincent P. McCarthy have begun to succesfully raise funds and put together a campaign organization. Vallely says he has already spent $100,000. Gallagher says he has dished out $60,000.

Most candidates predict that the campaign will cost in the range of $500,000 to $1 million.

The need for money, candidates say, is not top be outstripped by the need to organize.

"I will win this on field organization," Gallagher says, who already claims a field organization of close to 1000 volunteers.

One candidate who is taking an interesting approach to campaign organization is King. The longtime civil rights and tenant activist says he will place ads in newspapers asking for people to apply for jobs as local campaign managers.

Carla Johnston, a Cambridge nuclear arms freeze activist, has also filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Several candidates still reportedly are weighing an election bid: Rep. Joseph Mackey (D-Somerville); Rosemary Sansone, a top aide to Boston Mayor Raymond L. Flynn; and Richard Pennington, a Democratic Boston lawyer.