The Long March

THE SUPER TUESDAY installment of the Democratic primary serial provided some exciting new twists in a campaign that has already seen its share of remarkable reverses. First, Fritz Mondale seemed mighty and invincible. Then, Gary Hart (D--Colo.) seemed confident and unstoppable. Now it looks like we're in store for a protracted race in which a clear front-runner may never emerge. Only one thing is clear, the road to the Democratic. Party convention in San Francisco is tile with pot holes and the party is riding on shocks that are already worn Prospects for victory in November get dimmer with every bump along the trail.

The Democrats' chances of turning Ronald Reagan out of the White House never looked particularly promising, even when the party seemed unified and Mondale's nomination appeared inevitable. The fact that seven other candidates showed up at the starting gate should have been a tip-off that this would be no live furlong romp. Now that the shine of the Mondale machine has been dulled by Florida sun and New England must and snow, new possibilities seem to be popping up every day. In the most interesting scenario, neither Hart not Mondale is able to nail down enough delegates, and the convention is forced to nominate a compromise candidate. Although if sounds far-fetched, it may become a necessary alternative.

Despite his massive campaign machine and a boatload of endorsements. Walter Mondale has never been a particularly strong candidate. His career has been that of a dutiful, party, oriented politician who has moved patiently up the ladder. He is an organization man, the kind of politician who used to run for President back when the Chief Executive's most important job was administering federal patronage. In those days, the parties themselves placed the key role in turning out the vote, and the candidate's own personal its often became secondary.

Unfortunately for Fritz, the age of network new sound People magazine has changed politics drastically. It is no longer a mere contest of organizational skill and horse-trading, but of marketing, and media manipulation as well.

It is not insignificant that the high point of Mr. Mondale's campaign thus far came when he appropriated a now legendary line from a Wendy's hamburger commercial. The cry of "Where's the Beef?" was no surprise, coming as it did from a man who had already told the AFL-CIO that they deserved a break, but silly slogans can't build a Presidential image. It is overall perceptions that make a difference, and Mondale's images is decidedly Quaker Oats with an electorate that seems to gravitate toward Frosted Flakes. What's inside may be good for you, but the package is dull, traditional and unenticing.

Surface perceptions have become increasingly important in the face of a more fluid electorate. Party identification has fallen steadily in the past twenty years and ticket splitting is no longer regarded as a sin. In order to win, a candidate must attract a majority of the independent voters who do not identify strongly with either of the major parties. These are the hard sell voters who can often be swayed, in the end, by skillful image-making.

The trend is real, "but there is no reason to be inordinately concerned about the danger of elevating style over substance: in reality, there is a very strong correlation between the two. Walter Mondale is viewed as bland and traditional because he has staked out a position as a cautious and experienced politician, and he has focussed on the old Democratic issues--fairness, aid to the poor and the unemployed, etc. While this helps him with the old-line party groups like Blacks, industrial union members, and lower income people, it hurts him with the independents.

On the other hand, Gary Hart's focus on economic revitalization and military reform hits home with the most important segments of non-aligned voters--young professionals, college graduates, and middle-income people. His image as the man with new ideas grows out of his proposals in these areas.

But it is likely that both candidates will have a problem wooing the other's supporters Blacks and many lower income union members see Hart as a rich man's Democrat. Independents are put off by Mondale's apparent lack of independence from special interest groups.

Yet the Senator from Colorado has several distinct advantages over his opponent as a general election contender His public personal is not yet cast in stone. Overall, his record on traditional Democratic issues is good, though not as sterling as the former Vice-President's. He still has an opportunity to reach out to the poor and the unemployed and prove his liberal credentials. Faced with the alternative of Hart or Reagan, their choice would be clear.

Mondale, on the other hand, has almost no credibility with Hart's independent constituency, many of whom spurned the Carter Mondale ticket in 1980 to vote for Reagan or Anderson. These are the voters whom the Democratic nominee must attract, and Mondale has run just the kind of campaign that will drive them over to Reagan in the fall. If he gets the nomination, it will be extremely difficult for him to alter his image sufficiently to prevent a surge of independents to the Republican ticket. Not only would the Democrats' hopes for the Presidency be dashed, but vulnerable right-wing senators like Gordon Humphrey and Jesse Helms could be swept back into office for another six years on such a Republican tide.

Nevertheless, in the aftermath of the Illinois primary Mondale may have regained the upper hand, if not front-runner status. Even though his general election prospects look bleak, he retains a distinct advantage in the upcoming weeks of balloting. The next two major campaign events, in New York and Pennsylvania, are closed primaries, which leave independents locked out of the voting booth. Victories in both of these states would give Mondale a significant delegate lead and leave Hart struggling to catch up in the relative dearth of big events between Pennsylvania on April 10th and the Texas caucuses on May 5th.

Gary Hart's best chance for victory always lay in the possibility of embarrassing his opponent with a string of impressive victories, but Michigan and Illinois cut that string short. It is now very unlikely that either candidate can force the other out of the race before the convention. At this point, in order to have a chance at winning the nomination. Hart must take the lead in delegate strength by winning delusive victories in western primaries and caucuses, especially California on June 5th. If he does not, and Mondale appears to be within striking distance of a majority, then organization politics will take over and hand the prize to the man from Minnesota.

IF THE TWO candidates end the primary season at roughly equal strength, the potential for a wild and politically bloody convention is great. A divisive floor fight for the nomination would be a disaster for the Democrats and would undoubtedly produce a nominee so wounded by his own party that chances for victory in November would be nil. If the two men seem to be dendlocked in June, the best solution would be the selection of a compromise candidate. Perhaps someone who has already dropped out of the race, or a name that has only briefly been mentioned thus far (Dale Bumpers, Jim Wright, or Mario Cuomo). Anyone nominated under such unusual circumstances would face an uphill fight, but his or her chances would be somewhat better than those of a candidate destroyed by intraparty feuding.

In the end, the big winner in this election year may be George McGovern. The former Senator from South Dakota has already won back a respected position as an elder statesman within his party. And if Walter Mondale emerges from a divisive race as the Democratic nominee, then people just may end up forgetting about that old '72 landslide too.