A Fork in the Road

IN EL SALVADOR, the journey to the ballot box runs along the razor's edge. While many observers claim that Sunday's presidential election can do little to alter the situation in the war-torn country, two decisive outcomes are possible: the vote could either pave the way toward an acceptable solution to the civil war onset into motion a series of forces destined to bring the beleaguered nation to ruin.

But while the possible outcomes offer two sharp alternatives, the choice of leaders before the Salvadorans is by no means clear. After four years of internecine conflict and 50,000 deaths, the people of El Salvador desperately desire order and a halt to the bloodletting. Voters may be tempted then to choose the toughest-talking candidate, Roberto d'Aubuisson, the reactionary leader of the National Republican Alliance and a man linked at least indirectly to the right wing death squads.

But if the polls are any indication, Salvadorans instead appear to lean towards moderate Jose Napoleon Duarte of the Christian Democrats, who, from 1980-82, led the junta that succeeded decades of military rule. Although once considered a viable dark horse, National Conciliation Party candidate Francisco Jose Guerrero now ranks third behind Duarte and d'Aubuisson. Since it is unlikely' that any one contestant will win a clear-cut majority, there will most likely be a May run-off between the top two contenders.

However, securing enough votes to ensure election may prove to be the easiest of all tasks for the ultimate winner. Success for the new government and a peaceful future for the entire country hinges upon the president's ability to deal effectively with the three major elements controlling the current chaotic situation--the army, the rebels and the U.S. Congress.

Should d'Aubuisson emerge as president, which would have happened in the 1982 elections had not the U.S. embassy wisely intervened, the already tottering country would plunge into chaos. Like the extreme right wing factions of the army who support him, d'Aubuisson has pledged to fight the leftist guerrillas to the death as well as vowing to put a stop once and for all to the currently stalled land reform program.

Because of d'Aubuisson's blatant disregard, nay, hostility, towards human rights, his election would most likely force Congress to withdraw military aid to El Salvador list it forfeit any of the moral high ground U.S. foreign policy so aspires to. Moreover, the thought of a cut-off of its blood line would, immediately, pit much of the army against d'Aubuisson. Thus, the political floor work would hopefully collapse from underneath d'Aubuisson before the entire country blew up, the latter being the most likely outcome.

THE HOPE RESTS, albeit precariously, with Duarte. True, rumors abound that a Duarte victory would prompt a coup by the extremist parts of the army, who view Duarte as a dyed-in-the-wool Communist. But most sections of the armed forces will move probably regard a Duarte government at the surest way to keep the dollars coming.

Duarte's biggest asset remains, however, his open mind toward the insurgents, whose participation is key to any political solution, along with ties he developed with other moderate leaders stemming from their united opposition to military rule. Throughout the campaign Duarte has promised to open up dialogue with the guerrillas and enable them to participate--in municipal elections two years hence--the only way to break the bloody stalemate.

Aside from Duarte winning at the polls and the bulk of the army keeping its cool, no short order in itself, progress in El Salvador rides on a change in U.S. attitudes. Force, it should be finally realized, is unlikely to solve problems anywhere south of the border. Bringing the moderates in the government and guerrillas together for dialogue aimed at ending the civil war and constructing as broadly based a government as possible in the splintered country should be given top priority.

The Reagan Administration has long opposed discussions between the government and the guerrillas that would feature the topic of power sharing for the simple reason that it objects to the idea of any group shooting its way to power. But whether the Administration likes it or not, the leftists, by virtue of the one third of the countryside they control, have de facto power. Furthermore, their strength shows no signs of abating despite increased U.S. aid and training to the Salvadoran army. In short, peace will forever remain elusive in El Salvador without an agreement with the leftists.

For the moment, Americans should pray for a Durarte victory, a demonstration of restraint on the part of the army and a stroke of enlightenment in Washington. Although nothing obstructs another violent cardiac arrest in this modern day heart of darkness. Duarte alone represents the narrow path out from bloodshed to the still distant peace in Central America.