A Look at the South

The biggest and most cosmopolitan of the southern states also figures to be Hart's best bet. Hart supporters and some observers say the Coloradan will pick up about 75 percent of delegates supporting former Florida Gov. Reubin O. Askew, though one Mondale organizer there calls that figure "bullshit." Askew's former campaign manager has also moved into Hart's camp. Hart should also profit from the lack of any real organized labor in the state, says John Harwood, political reporter for the St. Petersburg Times. Harwood calls Florida "really a bunch of city states, a state that's really fragmented and [where] media's really important."

Thanks to a ballot the separates the delegate selection vote from the popular vote, Hart may in fact win in Florida without winning a majority of the delegates. Hart was so non-existent in Florida before New Hampshire that he was able to file for only 34 of the 84 delegate slots.

"We're not doing any phone banks, we're not doing any polling," says Diane Abrams, a top Hart organizer in Florida. "It's just too late. We don't have any organization here. We never did. Some friends of ours offered office space and we're working out of four different offices."

Despite Hart's disorganized surge, Geoffrey Tomb of the Miami Herald says Florida is a "Walter Mondale type of state." Tomb cites a large elderly population, many of them Jewish and strongly pro-Israel. "Florida has the demographics that you need," Tomb says. "If Mondale cannot win in Florida, his candidacy is through."

Observers say the campaign in Florida has been largely devoid of issues, with Glenn and Mondale badgering Hart, and Hart sticking to his "new ideas" theme. Says Donna Blanton-of the Orlando Sentinel, "the average Democrat here doesn't know anything about where they stand. Hart's rise has a lot to do with his image as a young, new, fresh face."

But Mondale has been working Florida harder than any of the other southern states. Blanton recalls that the Mondale organization had 30 paid staffers last fall when Mondale finished strongly against Askew in a state straw poll.

Yet Mondale state coordinator William Fleming has tried to pains Florida is Hart's New Hampshire, saying, "We camp into this state as extreme underdogs." Fleming calls the Mondale campaign the "insurgent camp," which never did more than five or six paid staff."

Nonetheless, Fleming says Mondale will spend between $100,000 and $130,000 on TV advertising, compared to $150,000 for Hart. Both sums are considered minimal.